Overview
Used in the manufacturing of metals, for power generation and in the production of numerous other products including glass, paint and fertilizers, petcoke is widely used. As the energy transition drives markets around the world to search for ways to reduce carbon emissions, the outlook for Petroleum coke remains uncertain.
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No upstream gain from US' Venezuela intervention
No upstream gain from US' Venezuela intervention
Washington, 5 January (Argus) — The largest US military intervention in Latin America in decades will not significantly boost Venezuela's oil production in the short or medium term even though the White House is improvising a new, oil-centered approach to Caracas. US president Donald Trump has deployed US special forces to remove Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from power and transport him to face drug trafficking charges in a US court in New York. But the Trump administration has decided to work with the remnants of the Maduro government, calculating that it will now bend Caracas to its will to address US immigration concerns and to carve out a bigger foothold for US companies in Venezuela's oil industry. "We're gonna have the big oil companies go in, and they're gonna fix the infrastructure, they're gonna invest money," Trump told reporters Sunday night. Like many of Trump's initiatives, his Venezuela policy falls into the category he once called having "concepts of a plan" — a complex endeavor where he outlines an end goal but not the means of getting there. A meaningful turnaround in Venezuela's upstream industry requires costly repairs to basic energy infrastructure covering everything from pipelines to power supplies, as well as access to the latest equipment and a skilled labor force that is ready to go. Venezuela's opposition, centered around Maria Corina Machado, laid out a detailed plan for opening Venezuela's oil industry to foreign investment. The plan had the input of former PdV executives and Venezuelan economists forced into exile. But the Trump administration has signalled it has no desire to help Machado take the reins of power in Venezuela. "What we want to do is fix up the oil, fix up the country, bring the country back, and then have elections," Trump said, expressing doubts about Machado's capacity to govern the country. Machado is "fantastic" but "we have short-term things that have to be addressed right away," by working with the existing government, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on Sunday. The "short-term things" on the Trump administration's agenda almost certainly involve Venezuelan migrants living in the US, whom it wants to return to Venezuela. Trump on Sunday night doubled down on his comment that the US would "run" Venezuela under its interim president Delcy Rodriguez, who served as Maduro's vice president and oil minister. "We need total access," Trump said, outlining his demands for Rodriguez. "We need access to the oil, and to other things in their country that allow us to rebuild their country." Serving as a loyal servant of Washington would be quite a departure for the regime that made "anti-imperialism" a key tenet of its messaging in the past 27 years. For now, key figures of the regime, including interior minister Diosdado Cabello, are rallying behind Rodriguez, who expressed willingness to cooperate with the White House before being sworn in as the interim president on Monday. Rodriguez took the oath of office in the presence of her brother, the powerful National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez and Maduro's son Nicolas. Rodriguez immediately signed a decree granting "extraordinary powers" to Cabello-led police forces and to the military, led by defense minister Vladimir Padrino. Maduro on Monday made his first appearance at the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, pleading not guilty to the US criminal charges and declaring himself a "prisoner of war". Rodriguez has so far not named a replacement for herself in the position of oil minister. PdV operations continue apace. A Chevron representative in Caracas told Argus , "PdV is bulletproof!". Venezuela's crude output was 934,000 b/d in November, according to an average of Opec secondary sources including Argus . An embargo on Venezuelan crude shipments transported by tankers sanctioned by the US remains in place. But as many as 16 tankers are believed to have left Venezuela in defiance of the US blockade since Maduro's capture, according to vessel tracking website TankerTrackers.com. A sustained disruption to Venezuelan oil exports would primarily affect the global heavy-sour crude market. Chinese independent refiners are preparing to switch to Iranian, Russian or unsanctioned grades, or even lowering their run rates if Venezuelan crude becomes unavailable. Any reconfiguration of Venezuela's oil industry would pit the US against China, whose state-owned firms have been unable to collect on $12bn worth of loan-for-oil schemes because of the US sanctions and Venezuela's falling output. Then there is also the matter of potentially getting the US military involved in another quagmire that Trump has vowed to avoid after costly US engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. The Trump administration says that its military operation in Venezuela is in fact not a military operation but a domestic law enforcement matter that requires no consent from Congress. "The whole foreign policy apparatus thinks everything is Libya, everything is Iraq, everything is Afghanistan," Rubio said. This is not the Middle East, and our mission here is very different. This is the western hemisphere." By Haik Gugarats and Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Higher output may weigh on USGC coke price
Viewpoint: Higher output may weigh on USGC coke price
Houston, 29 December (Argus) — Higher heavy sour crude supply on the US Gulf coast may lead to increased high-sulphur fuel-grade petroleum coke output in 2026, potentially pressuring fob 6.5pc sulphur prices. Limited supply largely bolstered fob US Gulf coast 6.5pc sulphur coke prices in the second half of 2025 , despite a turbulent freight market throughout most of the year. Refinery upsets and closures, a shift to lighter crude slates and a lack of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) to run in cokers caused much of the supply tightness. US Gulf coke production was down by 4pc on the year in January-September, according to the latest data available from the US Energy Information Administration. Crude supply dynamics have now changed, because of easing sanctions on Venezuela , a recovery in western Canadian crude production and ample global supply . Three new projects in the US Gulf of Mexico have also helped to boost US sour crude output since mid-year, and production is expected to top 2mn b/d by the end of 2025. US sour crude values in November fell to their lowest level in over a year . US Gulf refiners are shifting to heavy sour crude feedstocks as a result, according to market participants, which produce higher volumes of coke with higher sulphur contents. At the same time, HSFO prices at the US Gulf coast have been falling since mid-November, after stocks reached a five-month high . Prices neared a five-year low on 16 December and are expected to remain weak into the first quarter of 2026. This is likely to prompt refiners to use more HSFO in their cokers. Freight rates out of the US Gulf coast are also expected to remain firm into 2026. "Freights are higher for the end of this year and early next year," a trader said. "We haven't seen any relief in the freight market for sure." Cfr markets absorbed increases in freight rates throughout most of 2025 because of tight supply of US Gulf coke. If supply increases, the fob 6.5pc sulphur coke price would likely fall to balance the additional freight cost. Freight costs are expected to rise, in part because China has pledged to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans , cargoes that would compete for dry bulk vessel space. US trade representative Jamieson Greer in early December said China's deadline to buy this volume is February-March, and that China is on track to meet it pledge. But final trade volumes are still to be seen. The increase in heavy crude runs in cokers and the rise in US Gulf high-sulphur supply may come at the expense of mid-sulphur coke availability, which is produced from lighter, sweeter crudes. Mid-sulphur coke output on the US Gulf coast has already started to tighten in recent months, according to market participants, and this will likely persist just as interest in US Gulf coke from China, a key mid-sulphur buyer, has rekindled. This could boost fob US Gulf coast 4.5pc sulphur coke prices in 2026 and could increase that grade's premium to high-sulphur coke. The US Gulf 4.5pc sulphur premium to 6.5pc sulphur more than doubled between the weeks of 7 July and 22 September, rising to $7.50/t from $3/t, because of limited spot supply. The spread has been steady at $6.50 since 20 October. By Hadley Medlock Year-to-date US coke output mn t US residual fuel oil stocks ’000bl US Gulf coast 3.5pc sulphur fuel oil price USD/bl Louisiana light sweet crude premium to Mars crude USD/bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: CBAM to reshape Med cement trade flows
Viewpoint: CBAM to reshape Med cement trade flows
London, 24 December (Argus) — Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to reshape seaborne cement and clinker trade flows from the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa, diverting volumes away from the EU toward other growing markets such as west Africa, the Middle East and parts of South America, with exporters likely to lower fob prices to compete for new buyers. CBAM, scheduled to begin on 1 January, will impose a charge on imported cement and clinker with embedded carbon emissions above an established benchmark. The EU's preliminary implementing acts published last week have set these benchmarks lower than earlier proposals , which will likely mean higher CBAM costs for most imports. If the policy is implemented as currently proposed, a grey Portland cement producer from Egypt that has not had its emissions intensity verified by the EU would be subject to a country default value of 1.419t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)/t of cement in 2026. This is more than twice the free allowance benchmark value of 0.666t of CO2e/t, meaning an importer would owe a significant portion of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) allowance price for each tonne of cement. The ETS price now stands at more than €85/t of CO2e after rising earlier this week to its highest level since 2023. Fob prices for Egyptian or Turkish bulk cement are in the high $50s/t to low $60s/t, or roughly high €40s to low €50s/t on a euro dollar basis. Not only do the CBAM costs eliminate the price gap that has historically favoured suppliers from Turkey and North Africa exporting into the EU, but there is also additional risk in taking these imports.CBAM fees for next year's imports will not be calculated until 2027, when the EU ETS prices could be even higher. CBAM could divert millions of export tonnes EU companies were ramping up imports from Turkey and North Africa this year, likely to stock up ahead of CBAM. The new CBAM costs are likely to make much of this volume uncompetitive in the EU. Exporters may respond either by lowering fob or delivered prices in order to absorb some of the CBAM cost and defend EU market share, or by diverting volumes to non-EU markets, such as the US, west Africa, Middle East, or South America. Turkish cement exports to core EU buyers — Spain, Romania, Italy, France, Greece and Bulgaria — rose to 2.06mn t in January-September, up from 1.39mn t in the same period a year earlier, the latest Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. Clinker shipments to these buyers reached 2.12mn t in January-September, up from 1.55mn t over the same period last year and above the 2.08mn t shipped in the whole of 2024. Turkey accounted for about two-fifths of EU cement and clinker imports in 2024, Cembureau data show. North African exporters focused on clinker, with combined shipments to Europe at 2.14mn t in January-September, up from 1.64mn t a year earlier, according to GTT. Key destinations included Italy, Ireland, Croatia, Greece, France, Spain and Belgium. Much of this volume is now likely to move to countries that are seeing robust import growth. For cement, these include Syria, Iraq, Libya, Ghana, Guyana, Haiti, Guatemala, Peru and Jamaica. For clinker, demand growth is strongest in Syria, Senegal, Cameroon, Togo, Liberia, Mauritania, Guinea, Ghana, Guyana, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Ivory Coast. These markets are structurally dependent on imports and highly price-sensitive. Mediterranean exporters will likely need to lower prices in order to attract new buyers in these regions as South Asian exporters have also been competing to export more to these markets. Vietnam continues to offer some of the lowest-priced clinker to west Africa and South America, supported by its surplus capacity and competitive Atlantic freight. Pakistan is expanding its exports into east Africa, the Mideast Gulf and south Asia and is now probing Atlantic markets with aggressive pricing. And Saudi Arabia is emerging as a major supplier of cement and clinker, particularly to the Middle East and Africa. Spot cement offers from Pakistan and Vietnam were recently in the mid-to-high $30s/t fob, compared with the mid-to-high $50s/t fob from Turkey and Egypt. In the clinker market, Turkish and Egyptian exporters are keeping offers at $44-45/t fob against $29-31/t fob from Asian producers. Vietnamese exporters also offer larger shipments, including on Panamax and Capesize vessels, which allow them to move more volume at lower freight costs. Another potential drag on cement and clinker prices in 2026 is a slowdown in the US cement market. The US is a major global importer and has been increasing its intake from suppliers like Turkey, Egypt and Vietnam. But imports are forecast to hit a bottom of around 17mn t in 2026, according to analyst Ed Sullivan of The Sullivan Report, as the US struggles with an uncertain policy landscape, new tariff costs, and low home affordability. But while market fundamentals and upcoming policies point to downward pressure on export prices across the Mediterranean and beyond, Mediterranean cement producers could find it difficult to significantly lower prices in order to compete in new export markets. Prices lower than current levels would mean losses for Turkish producers, one Turkish exporter said earlier this month. By Alexander Makhlay and Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indian cement plants use more domestic coal in November
Indian cement plants use more domestic coal in November
Singapore, 17 December (Argus) — Domestic thermal coal supplies to Indian cement makers rose on the year in November and from October, with producers increasing coal use to benefit from its competitive pricing vis-a-vis petroleum coke. Cement makers received 730,000t of domestic coal in November, up by 1.6pc from 720,000t a year earlier, India's coal ministry data show. Receipts in April-November — the first eight months of India's April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year — were up by almost 23pc on the year at 6.33mn t. Receipts rose by 14pc from 640,000t in October, indicating an uptick in cement output and demand in the dry season after the monsoon rains. The increase was also partly supported by the removal of a 400 rupees/t ($4.43/t) levy on coal effective 22 September. Higher domestic coal supplies have enabled cement plants to increase the share of coal in their fuel mix. Cement plants use coal and coke as fuel in cement making. Most plants can switch between coal and coke to take advantage of lower costs. The recent increase in cfr prices and offers of seaborne high-sulphur coke may also have prompted some cement plants to expand reliance on domestic coal, but most producers still need to blend coke in certain ratios to use the locally available coal. A weakening of the rupee against the dollar may also be triggering a preference for domestic coal compared with imported fuel. The rupee averaged Rs88.88 to the dollar in November, compared with Rs88.37 in October. It has slipped further and averaged Rs90.08 so far this month, after hitting a record low of Rs91 on 16 December. January-loading Supramax cargoes of US high-sulphur coke are being offered in the high-$110s/t cfr on India's west coast. The Argus -assessed index for the delivered India price of 6.5pc sulphur coke was last marked at an over eight-month high of $118/t cfr on 10 December. Indian coal supplies to non-power consumers, such as cement plants and steel mills, increased in the first eight months of the current fiscal year because of higher availability and lower demand from coal-fired power plants. Higher domestic coal supply to cement plants and a partial replacement of coke usage may be partly limiting India's overall appetite for imported coke in 2025 so far. Indian cement makers received 1.06mn t of seaborne coke in October, down by 13pc from a year earlier and lower from 1.09mn t in September, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Cement makers' cumulative imports over January-October stood at 9.06mn t, compared with 9.42mn t a year earlier. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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