Methanol Institute Initiatives, Gray Methanol Trends & Sustainability Advances

Cassidy: Welcome to the "Methanol Market Puts and Takes" podcast, part of Argus Chemical Conversations podcast series. Today I'm excited to have a special guest, Alex Döle, newly appointed CEO of the Methanol Institute join us for a discussion. Alex, before we dive into the methanol market and the work the Methanol Institute is doing, can you share with listeners a little bit more about yourself, including your experience in the methanol market, and what's brought you to leading the MI team?

Alex: Thanks, Cassidy. Great opportunity and good to see you again after seeing each other in Houston last week, which was great. So I'm a Dutch national. I live in Amsterdam. And when I'm not traveling, I work from our office in Brussels, which is only an hour-and-a-half away by high-speed train, just for people who don't know how small Europe is. About my background, I've been working in the chemicals and energy space, actually my entire career. And when I worked at Dow Chemical, for example, I was based, in Africa, in the Middle East for more than 12 years. And that gave me direct day-to-day experience of how industries operate in energy markets. And what I learned is that governments in those regions want to do business. They do not care about long policy speeches. They want to know what you will invest, how many jobs you will create, and how you will support local communities, for example.

That very practical approach is what I carried with me. And it's interesting because it's also what you see currently in today's environment, including the U.S., focusing on delivering results, and to me that actually makes a lot of sense. But when I worked at OCI Global prior to joining MI, I learned what entrepreneurship really means. In that environment, only winning is on the menu and no doesn't exist. And the company is always ahead of the game, so looking for the next opportunity and moving faster than most of their peers. And it showed me that you can achieve anything as long as you stay focused. And what is possible actually out there and you push hard to make it happen, success guaranteed.

And over the years, I've worked across commercial and regulatory roles and often combining the two also and that gave me a strong sense of business dynamics as well as policy frameworks and how that need to be shaped. And my background covers methanol, but also ammonia. So I know the main carriers of hydrogen very well, and along with other key parts of the value chain that comes with it. And although...well not although, altogether actually, I've had the chance to work across markets that are central to the energy transition, so from Africa, to the Middle East, to Asia, to the U.S., and Europe and that global perspective and an entrepreneurial mindset is what I now bring to leading the Methanol Institute in a nutshell.

Cassidy: You had to condense the decades of a career from all the different spaces that you've been in, which is great exciting for the Methanol Institute, I'm sure the team, and also members in the methanol market in general, to have you bring those types of experiences in. Can you tell us more about the team? I know you have several offices, you have several team members globally. Can you share a little bit more of how that may have changed in the past 12, 18 months?

Alex: There's a lot of energy in the institute right now. In August, we welcome Felicia Masters. She's our new managing director in Brussels, and she brings strong mix, strong experience in corporate and association and especially in the energy transition. And that is already making an impact. We also opened our new office in Brussels. It gives members a place to connect and just be with us whenever they want to. We also have a phenomenal team across the United States, China, Singapore, and India. And they are among the best in their fields. And they're fully committed to grow the global methanol value chain, and they work closely together because anything that happens in one part of the world can quickly affect markets in other regions.

In September, we launched Glue Up, our new interactive member platform. It gives members quick access to research, position papers, and updates. And just as important, it lets members connect and chat with each other, which helps to build a strong community feel, which is important to us. And the platform is also available as an app, so members can stay engaged while traveling. We're also building new partnerships. And for example, earlier this month we signed an MOU with the Saudi Arabia Transport General Authority. And we're going to focus with them on maritime safety, methanol research, and pilot projects in the kingdom. And it's a good example of how our team, our board, and our members come together to make, well, practical progress for sustainable shipping. It works really well in a new setup.

Cassidy: I want to circle back to something you mentioned earlier. You recently participated in the Argus Methanol Forum In Houston. What were your key takeaways or interesting notes from the week?

Alex: Many. It was a lot of fun. And that's really important because it shows that we're a very strong community, which I very much like. So thanks to Argus for organizing these events. It's really, really important that we all continue doing it and also participate. So next year, all come and join the event. It's very good to be on stage also, but also to talk to peers. I think that the forum showed how far methanol actually has come. The conversations were no longer about if methanol would play a role in shipping, but how fast it can scale, completely different narrative.

So we have done a lot. And there was also a strong interest in Methanol-to-Jet, which is moving from concept to demonstration, which is I think really cool. And there was recognition that the conventional markets remain essential. That was also for the first time that I hear that because there was a lot of talk about green, but not so much about conventional. And to be honest, that's important. Why? Because the conventional methanol market, they built the industry we have today. Without them, there wouldn't be anything to turn into green. And it still underpins critical chemical value chains and I think for many more years to come.

At the end of September, we will launch our Methanol-to-Jet report and Argus with your colleagues who play a key role in it together with our team. But what I really like about the project, not only because I'm excited about Methanol-to-Jet also because we're bringing perspective from U.S., Europe, and China. Why? Because our team members working on the project are from those regions. And these are, at the same time, the key markets for sustainable methanol productions. And I think many more research papers should have more diverse view and different points of view because then the conversation keeps flowing and we also have better discussions.

So my main takeaway is, we are real in a transition phase. Everyone is saying it. It's not about fuel winning over another. I think everyone on stage, and you probably also noticed it, everyone was saying we believe in a multi-fuel future, which is really good, and that's what we need. And at the same time, everyone is confirming that methanol is going to have a very strong and growing role with a clear pathway to low-carbon and renewable supply. So I think all good news.

Cassidy: I think I had similar takeaways attending this forum, you know, from the Argus side for the past handful of years. A lot of the previous years were if Methanol's going to be a marine fuel, if it can compete, if we can get to certain, you know, low-carbon intensity measures. And now it's kind of evolved into a, "Okay, we're doing this, we have the technology, we have the collaboration, we have the support from policy." So yeah, I agree with your not if, but how fast. You know, we could talk a little bit more about Methanol-to-Jet, but I think also important, as you noted, the conventional market is essential, right? I mean, it's 92 million tons of demand a year, and methanol is helping to build, you know, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MMA, etc., all very essential things. And a lot of those key players will overlap. So it's important to have kind of that matureness of that market remain as well. So staying with that, let's talk about the gray methanol market. Do you see any changes on the horizon for gray methanol or its derivatives, you know, in the next year or two?

Alex: I completely agree, it has been the backbone of our industry for decades. So we also have to look after them. I think that's really important. Forty percent of global methanol goes into olefins. And in Europe, and I thought it was actually quite high, about 60% is linked to formaldehyde. So these industries, they depend on steady, reliable supply. It is a huge, huge industry, and it just needs to work for all the players who are acting there. At the same time, methanol has a huge advantage, and that is what I really love about the molecule. It doesn't change, whether it is conventional, low-carbon, renewable, it's always the same product.

So that means producers can continue to supply existing markets while progressively blending in cleaner pathways, which is super important. So you lower greenhouse gas intensity without redesigning engines, re-engineering plants, or rebuilding infrastructure, you can keep everything the same. So the outlook is not about replacing one market with the other. That's really important. It is about stability for existing users, and while giving producers and consumers a staged, practical transition to low-carbon and renewable methanol. And that flexibility is what makes methanol stand out compared to the other options.

Cassidy: I think it is the background of the industry. And it's had a little bit of a tumultuous past, five-ish years, and the fact that we're kind of out on the other side for green methanol market and it remains steady and mature and reliable is really important. Let's shift a little bit to sustainability. You mentioned it there at the end. 2025's been a big year for sustainability, decarbonization efforts, particularly in the marine fuel industry. How do you see that progressing? Obviously, we are less than a month away from the IMO vote, so policy is really driving that. I know we talked a lot about the IMO vote at the Argus Methanol Forum. But what's the sentiment you get from your conversations within the market, or MI committee members, or even your own global team members?

Alex: Well, first of all, you are absolutely right, 2025 is a landmark year. FuelEU Maritime entered into force in January. And then we, of course, have IMO. All eyes will be on London in October, when member states take their final vote. It's all about the net-zero framework. So if adopted, it'll be the most significant global step yet. And setting a greenhouse gas fuel standard and a pricing mechanism, that's big. And it gives ship owners and investors the certainty they need. They need clarity and once this is adopted, they will have clarity. Now, not every country is aligned yet. However, I must say, the fact it has come this far tells us that the momentum is real and really hard to ignore.

MI now has an observer status, as most people know who are listening to this, at the IMO. And the IMO working group leadership, they're run by Methanex and Maersk, they will be on the ground in London joined by a delegation from our members such as SABIC, Mitsui, IF GLOBAL, and Stenner. And we will be following the negotiations closely and making sure methanol stays part of the conversation. And meanwhile in Europe, companies will already feel the pressure. So by the end of September, so that's literally two weeks away, shipping firms will face the first EU ETS surrender deadline. And fuel EU Maritime will start with its first reporting rules. And these will show just how costly business as usual is compared to switching to low-carbon options.

So the next 12 to 18 months that you asked for, yeah, well, they will be challenging, but also exciting, I think. Among our members, the mood is, let's call it cautious optimism. And the real pressure is there, but there's also a sense that finally we move from talk to action. I think that's important to mention. But let us not forget that the foundation is already there. Methanol is traded globally, stored in more than 120 ports. Bunkering is operational in over 30 markets, and with many more preparing. We're not starting from scratch. So we are building on an existing global value chain and that gives methanol a real advantage. I think all will be fine.

Cassidy: I think interesting that you bring up Europe already feeling the pressure as far as EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime reporting. I think that'll be really interesting for the market because we'll finally have metrics, right? And I think that'll help us going forward. Another thing that was talked about definitely in the marine fuel panel at the methanol form was, is FuelEU Maritime going to stay intact if IMO is passed? I know there's a review clause for FuelEU Maritime, but there might be some overlap. What's your opinion on how that moves, you know, in 2027 into '28?

Alex: Well, they have to come together. It's a crystal ball, but let's say the framework is adopted. I think FuelEU Maritime will be overruled by IMO ruling. But that's just what I sense because it makes a lot of sense. It's not about, "Look at me, the IMO, I'm claiming this, or the EU is claiming that." At the end of the day, these institutions are there to make things happen. It makes much more sense to just work with one set of rules. And I hope that it'll come from the IMO.

Cassidy: Important for them to have the same end goal in mind, so it's important for them to align. I can't imagine, the regulatory headaches that some of the ship owners might have to go through if they have multiple policies that they need to consider and report on. So hopefully that comes into alignment in the next couple years. Obviously, marine fuel is like the hot topic for a lot of low-carbon methanol, but what other pathways for methanol outside of marine and, like, the conventional use kind of piques your curiosity? I know you mentioned Methanol-to-Jet, but anything else you want to throw out there that may be specific to a certain region or a niche area of the market?

Alex: Sure. Well, I think we all agree that methanol is proving its value far beyond marine fuels. So I give you a few example. In China, methanol vehicles are already on the road like taxis, buses, and heavy-duty trucks. Geely has deployed methanol-powered taxis and is now moving into hybrid passenger cars. So this shows that methanol is not only for maritime or industrial users, it has become a real consumer vehicle potential as well, which is interesting.

In Europe, companies like LEGO, Novo Nordisk, they use E-methanol to make plastics and pharmaceuticals. And Vioneo will be the first at-scale fossil-free producer of polyethylene and polypropylene using green methanol. And each kiloton, just to give you an example, of plastics produced will avoid up to 6 kilotons of CO2 emissions. That is really, really big, first of a kind. And the first plant is being built in the Port of Antwerp in Belgium, and the company's owned by AP Moller. And that is really interesting because it shows how they are investing beyond their core shipping business to support the transition. So that basically answers your question, what is happening.

Now, just a little bit on Methanol-to-Jet if okay. So when renewable methanol is used, Methanol-to-Jet can cut lifetime lifecycle emissions up to 90%. That is really big. And the pathway builds on technologies that are already in place. And that's what we love about methanol, it always goes back to what is already out there. And you can, for example, name methanol to olefins, that means scalability is realistic, right, because that works. ASTM approval, I expect it to be there around 2026, 2027 at the latest. And companies like ExxonMobil, Honeywell UOP, and Topsoe, they're leading really big projects currently.

Now, importantly, aviation can also benefit from the learnings already made in maritime. And we have had multiple discussions also at the Argus event. So bunkering, safe handling, crew training, that has already been figured out by maritime. So why not use that information for self because you can scale much faster, it's more cost-effective, and it's so much easier when you don't have to start from zero.

But just quickly going, I know we talked about maritime, I know we spend a lot of time on maritime. And by the way, that is also one of the reasons why we now have a clear pillar for chemicals, because there's so much happening there that we really want to focus on chemicals for our members. But maritime, just quickly on what we already have achieved as an industry. So we already have 240 methanol-capable vessels on the water or on order. So from major ship owners like Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO, and X-Press Feeders, they're all into methanol vessels. And analysts expect this number to pass 1200 by 2030, and that's in 5 years time. So we're moving very fast.

Again, methanol is already available as a marine fuel in 30 ports, and with many more preparing, and also U.S. ports because we often think that U.S. is not moving forward with methanol. Well, think again, they're huge market with a lot of potential. And ports like the Port of Seattle, or across Texas, or across California, they're all getting ready for methanol bunkering. So again, the focus is no longer on the question if, but when, and it's really unstoppable.

Now, together with our partner GENA Solutions, we track what is happening out there, who's building what. And we currently have 240 renewable and low-carbon projects worldwide. And even with delay, this points to up to 14 million tons of new supply by 2030. And that's not theory, that is really delivering and really in progress. So long story short, methanol is not a niche anymore, it's a flexible solution, and it's becoming a core part of the transition across multiple industries. Why? Because everyone in the industry is working together to make that happen. It's really amazing.

Cassidy: That's exciting to hear. We talked about kind of the method or the marine fuel side being a little bit slow to progress as we've kind of figured out policy and technology and, you know, off takes and what does this look like, like, on a producing side and a buyer side. And it'll be really interesting to see how, you know, maybe the plastics market or the staff market really learns from that pathway that I feel like we've all worked so hard to pave and hopefully they can, you know, come alongside and also utilize methanol because, you know, 90% reduction in emissions is huge for staff, if you can use methanol. So that'll be exciting to see kind of how they come alongside marine fuel, hopefully in the next three, five, seven years and hopefully that takes off.

Alex: I even hope faster. And that is the reason why I also gave the example of Vioneo that it really is a company to watch. They are extremely ambitious to get things done. But very realistic, they know the market very well. It's all very excited to see what will come up and how that all evolves.

Cassidy: Definitely an area to watch, a couple areas to watch there. So we've talked a lot about the market, we've talked about MI, we've talked about your background. If we want to look forward, maybe next summer or the following summer, 2027, and you've been in your role, one to two years, what are you personally hoping to accomplish with the MI team, with the methanol market, or kind of moving some of these newer technologies forward? What are you hoping to see in a couple summers?

Alex: I really like this question. And I often ask the same question when we are working on new projects. And I also used to do that when I was with Dow and OCI Global. So normally you sit in a room and you say, "Let's talk about a project," and I always say, "Okay, let's first pretend that we already...we're sitting here and we're going to evaluate the project, what has happened?" And because of the question, everything changes. So I think it's a really great question. Thanks for asking that.

So looking back, okay, so in 2027, now, let's stick through that year if okay. First of all, methanol is firmly established as a global solution for the energy transition. I think that is a really great goal. So delivering real value to our members and across the rest of the industry, of course. So we worked very hard to make methanol part of the big conversation from the very beginning, so not reacting afterwards. So we cannot be an afterthought and we push clear for workable regulation because right now, companies, when they work on regulations, they need multiple consultants, and they all say different things. So even after investing a lot of money, they still don't know what the regulation actually entails. And that is not sustainable, that needs to change.

I also think the IMO Net-Zero Framework was approved and then came the real task to implementation. And MI has been there every step of the way helping members, the industry and regulators to make it more practical, because at the end of the day, it's about delivering and not about talking. We also reminded governments that the transition is not a flick of the switch and we cannot sit and wait for a single silver bullet. Methanol offers a pathway today and keeps getting cleaner over time. So the molecule itself always keeps the benefit, and it doesn't pollute the water, it doesn't pollute air. And that has been proven again and again. So conventional market, methanol markets, they have been part of our journey, and they will remain part of the journey also in 2027 and beyond. And we know that we can help industries to become green, but also looking at the engines, what the infrastructure looks like, the flexibility is methanol's real strength, and that is what we have been working on the past years.

Now by 2027, the green corridors we are working on have shown the industry how to build an end-to-end value chain, moving goods from A to B in a more cost-effective way. Very important. And my big thing is that the big insurance companies have finally recognized that sustainable methanol does not increase risk, but it reduces risk, and that means lower insurance costs, and ultimately the consumers will benefit from it because costs will go down and prices will go down and that's what we all want. At the same time, governments and consumers now understand that sustainable choices are actually affordable. So green steel makes a car only $124 more expensive. And using sustainable fuel, for example, carrying shoes, that makes the shoes 50 cents more expensive. It's manageable and it's worth it.

So looking back, the most important thing I want to add, I'm proud of what the team has achieved, and I'm proud that they love what they're doing, and that they worked seamlessly across the regions and they were fully committed to grow the global methanol value chain and our members valued our work in advocacy, in knowledge, and in the community we built together. So by 2027, MI has become more than an association, let's call it an alliance, and we are partner that helps deliver practical solutions, connecting markets, aligning standards, and making the transition work on the ground. That's the achievement.

Cassidy: I think that's great goals to look forward to and definitely attainable. And, you know, I think the methanol market is very grateful to have MI, kind of, advocating and collaborating on our side to, you know, really make methanol part of the energy transition for decades to come. We'll see how the policy shakes out, you know, the ship owners and insurance and the energy corridor, and we'll keep pressing forward with those items as well. And definitely cautiously optimistic, as you said, for the next couple years. So maybe we'll tuck that question back for the next podcast and we'll kind of keep metrics on how it's going.

Alex: Let's do that. I like it.

Cassidy: Any final thoughts from you, Alex, before we wrap up?

Alex: I hope that we can stop looking at alternative use as competitors. Let's sit together around the table and let's make it work for everyone who needs energy, fuels, whatever it is and everyone needs it, to make it happen. And let's stop talking on socials about it should be ammonia, it should be LNG, or it should be methanol. And we all should come together because, you know, you don't even want one fuel, you want multiple fuels. And that would be my wish.

And the other one is let's continue to have really great discussions. I know we only have one Argus event, well, at least in Houston, as far as I know, once a year. But actually should be quarterly. And perhaps in a smaller group where you can sit or talk to each other as a town hall, but have real discussions and spending more time with each other than just, you know, 40 minutes on stage because when you continue the conversation with a small group of people, and it's not to exclude people at all because you can have multiple small groups, then you really get to where you need to be.

Cassidy: Definitely. I like that you mentioned other lower-carbon options are often seen as competitors, but there's room for everybody. And I think you could say about the same for different methanol pathways, whether it's blue, bio, E, or combination of any of those, there's room for every methanol pathway as well. So thank you so much, Alex, for your time and your thoughts, we really appreciate it. That's all for our special episode of "Methanol Puts-and-Takes" podcast. Thanks again to Alex for joining us. This series is a presentation of Argus Media, a leader in market reporting and commodity pricing information. For more details on all things methanol, visit argusmedia.com/methanol.