February US benzene at discount on delayed imports

Spanish Market: Petrochemicals
29/01/16

February US benzene prices are at a 3-4¢/USG discount to March amid expectations for rising import volumes from South Korea following earlier loading delays.

Second-half November fixed exports from South Korea to the US were originally due to arrive in January but are now expected to arrive in February. About 83,200 t was fixed in November, with about 53,800 t fixed in the second half of November.

In addition to the already record level number of fixed US exports in December totaling 197,800 t, the delayed volume has traders expecting a larger number of benzene cargoes coming into the US in February. That supports a discounted market for the front month.

April prices are at a 2¢/USG premium to March and May is at a 2-3¢/USG premium to April. The styrene market is expected to continue to provide support for benzene along the forward curve as styrene unit turnarounds in Asia are poised to support demand for US exports. As well, downstream phenol and aniline demand remains stable.

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22/12/25

Viewpoint: BZ demand to see little change in 2026

Houston, 22 December (Argus) — US benzene (BZ) demand is expected to remain steady in the first quarter of 2026 because of low operating rates for BZ derivatives, sources said. Operating rates for BZ derivatives were low in 2025 because of weak demand and a busy turnaround season, with several styrene monomer (SM), cumene and phenol producers conducting turnarounds. At least one US Gulf coast styrene producer is expected to perform a turnaround in the first quarter that is estimated to run 20-30 days, another source said. Ethylbenzene (EB) demand into gasoline blending may finally see its seasonal lull, as high-octane, low-Reid vapor pressure (RVP) blendstocks are typically in low demand from October-March, when US gasoline specifications allow high-RVP blendstocks like butane to enter the blend pool. In late 2025, EB demand remained steady into gasoline blending because of strong demand for high-octane aromatic blendstocks to offset low-octane light naphtha, which was blended into the gasoline pool to keep up with the demand for US gasoline exports. But, with expensive feedstock BZ heading into 2026, EBSM producers cannot sell EB above breakeven levels, which caused EBSM producers to reduce operating rates, sources said. When spot BZ reaches a premium to feedstock reformate prices, EB becomes a less competitive blendstock because of its production cost ( see chart ). This disposition of ethylbenzene's value as a blendstock opens competition for other aromatic blendstocks like toluene and mixed xylenes to enter the gasoline pool. North American EBSM operating rates are expected to remain at 48-60pc in early 2026, according to a generic Argus model with operating rates informed by market participants. SM export demand is anticipated to remain limited. The arbitrage to Europe is closed for December-loading cargoes to arrive in January, Argus data show. Buying interest could emerge from Latin America, which typically takes 20,000-25,000 metric tonnes (t) of SM from North America every two or three months, depending on polystyrene (PS) production rates. Cumene demand is expected to remain flat in 2026 on steady, though sluggish, downstream demand for phenol and acetone, which have big shares in the construction, automobile, appliances and resin industries. A source said sellers are taking customers' spending and borrowing power into deeper consideration when exploring spot and new contract opportunities to mitigate selling risk. Phenol is anticipated to see little fundamental change in 2026, sources said. There are few expected phenol turnarounds for maintenance in the first half of the year, and sources expect consumption to remain comparable to 2025. New housing permits declined in 2025 compared to 2024, according to US Census Bureau data, which led to fewer homes being built and less phenol demand. About half of all phenol produced in the US goes into the construction sector. Phenol and cyclohexane demand from the automotive industry may decline in 2026 on lower automobile manufacturing leading into the new year. Domestic automobile production trailed lower throughout 2025 as many producers were operating below full output rates. In August, US automobile production dipped below 100,000 units for the first time since January, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Before January, monthly domestic automobile production last dipped below 100,000 units in September 2021. The automotive industry makes up nearly 22pc of phenol consumption. Benzene supply is expected to remain low in 2026 on reduced US production and fewer imports because of US tariff policies that add costs for traders. On production, some market participants expect selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) unit operating rates to remain low in 2026 because BZ prices rose in late 2025 on tight supply, not strong demand, sources said. Though STDP margins look healthy on paper moving into 2026, if STDP operators raise production rates, the higher BZ supply would depress prices and margins to the point where STDP operators decide to turn run rates down again or idle their units, another source said. The US is historically in a net BZ deficit and usually relies on BZ imports to add supply when BZ production lags demand. With US tariff policies adding costs to those imports, shipments of BZ from Europe and Asia have largely declined. Market participants said they expect this trend to continue in 2026 without changes to US tariff policy. By Jake Caldwell Ethylbenzene economics vs Benzene and Reformate $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US housing to stymie chlor-vinyl in 1H 2026

22/12/25

Viewpoint: US housing to stymie chlor-vinyl in 1H 2026

Houston, 22 December (Argus) — An anemic US housing market is expected to continue restraining domestic demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and chlor-alkali during the first half of 2026, prompting US producers to push more PVC into the export market. US Federal Reserve policymakers have cut their target interest rate three times since September, but market participants do not expect lower borrowing rates to significantly boost demand for housing — a major PVC derivative market — until the peak of construction season next summer at the earliest. To mitigate further price erosion and excess inventories, producers are expected to increase export sales, especially to India. PVC producers expect the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026 to help stimulate the domestic housing market, which was listless this year on rising prices and elevated mortgage rates. But producers may be disappointed, as Fed policy makers have penciled in just one quarter-point rate cut for next year. 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Spot export prices have been rangebound from $550-595/metric tonne (t) fas Houston since mid-October, as US exporters vie with competitive Chinese volumes into India — the largest global importer of PVC. Exports from the US to India are anticipated to rebound in 2026 as much of the regulatory headwinds that crimped shipments this year are largely resolved. India earlier this year required foreign exporters to have their plants inspected and certified by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) by June, which was eventually delayed to the end of the year. India in early November dropped those requirements, but confusion around the shifting BIS deadlines led US producers to limit shipments to India. Additionally, India approved preliminary anti-dumping rates on US and Chinese PVC exports but failed to fully implement the penalties — effectively eradicating the last trade barrier into the country. US PVC exports to India in January-September this year fell by 68pc from the same nine-month period last year, according to US Census Bureau trade data compiled by Global Trade Tracker (GTT), largely because of various regulations and evolving trade policies. Exporters, though, are expected to reclaim lost market share in India in 2026, especially as the US housing market is anticipated to remain weak until the third quarter. Increased exports should help draw down inventories early next year, after suppliers grappled with excess inventory and multi-year price lows. The export market may become more important to US producers if domestic demand remains weak. This is due to OxyChem's expanded Battleground plant in La Porte, Texas, coming on line by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and US chlor-alkali producer Olin focusing expansion plans on the PVC market. Caustic soda prices A bearish PVC market to start 2026 is expected to lend price support to caustic soda prices for fully integrated producers. Caustic soda is co-produced with chlorine, a critical feedstock for PVC manufacturing, and producers can increase caustic soda prices to preserve electrochemical unit (ECU) margins during periods of bearish PVC and chlorine market conditions. An ECU is comprised by 1t of chlorine and 1.1 dry metric tonnes (dmt) of caustic soda. Domestic producers and distributors raised caustic soda prices in monthly contract negotiations for much of 2025, helping to offset incrementally lower chlorine settlements, despite building caustic soda inventories during the second half of the year. Domestic caustic soda inventories are poised to end the year at elevated levels following an estimated 5-10pc cut in US consumption and largely steady production for much of 2025. But to sustain a pricing strategy that maintains value in caustic soda, suppliers with deep-water access are expected to boost exports in 2026, primarily to Europe and Brazil, or peel back operating rates. Further caustic soda price support next year is anticipated to be drawn from rising natural gas prices for electricity generation, which comprises about 70pc of total ECU variable costs in the US Gulf coast region, Argus estimates. Average natural gas costs into electricity are forecast to climb by nearly 8pc next year to $4.20/mmBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook . By Connor Hyde and Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IG4 moves closer to Braskem control

15/12/25

IG4 moves closer to Braskem control

Sao Paulo, 15 December (Argus) — Latin America's largest petrochemical company Braskem said it received notice that its controlling shareholder Novonor has signed a 60-day exclusivity agreement with private equity firm IG4 to buy its shares of Braskem and credits guaranteed by them. Braskem said IG4 also has an agreement with Novonor's creditor banks to acquire all credits against Novonor and related entities that are secured by Braskem shares, worth close to R20bn ($3.71bn). If implemented, a fund advised by IG4 or an affiliate would become the direct or indirect holder of Braskem common and preferred shares representing 50.1pc of voting capital and 34.3pc of total capital. Novonor would retain preferred shares equal to 4pc of Braskem's capital, without governance rights beyond those set by law. The transaction must be approved by Brazil's antitrust watchdog Cade. In July Cade cleared without restrictions a proposed sale of Novonor's controlling stake to Petroquimica Verde, an investment fund linked to businessman Nelson Tanure. While that approval removed a key regulatory hurdle it did not finalize the transaction, which expired after a 90-day exclusivity period. The competition for Braskem's ownership it taking place amid financial struggles for the company and intense market volatility. Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the company's credit rating to CCC+ from BB-, citing refinancing risks and persistent negative free cash flow. By Isabela Mendes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals to raise S Korea MDI output

15/12/25

Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals to raise S Korea MDI output

Tokyo, 15 December (Argus) — Japanese petrochemical company Mitsui Chemicals plans to boost output capacity of its methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) plant in South Korea's South Jeolla province by May 2027. Mitsui Chemicals aims to raise MDI production capacity at the plant by 100,000 t/yr to 710,000 t/yr, from 610,000 t/yr, the company said on 15 December. Kumho Mitsui Chemicals, a 50:50 joint venture between Mitsui and South Korean chemicals firm Kumho Petrochemical, operates the plant. The company plans to begin construction in February 2026. It expects demand for MDI, a core material for polyurethane, to continue growing because of decarbonisation and economic growth, Mitsui Chemicals said. MDI is used for various products including automotive components, furniture, bedding and heat insulation for houses. The company believes the shift towards decarbonisation will drive MDI consumption for heat insulation, while economic growth will enhance demand for more comfortable cars and households. Mitsui Chemicals also expanded MDI production capacity at the plant by 200,000 t/yr to 610,000 t/yr in 2024 . The prospect of MDI demand growth has prompted fellow Japanese petrochemical producer Tosoh to build an MDI splitter in south Vietnam's Ba Ria–Vung Tau province, aiming to begin commercial operations by October 2026. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU agrees recycled content for cars

12/12/25

EU agrees recycled content for cars

Brussels, 12 December (Argus) — The European Parliament and EU states have provisionally agreed on the end-of-life vehicles regulation. It will set mandatory targets for recycled content in new vehicles, phasing in 15pc recycled plastics content in 6 years and 25pc in 10 years. Targets for recycled steel and aluminium should also be established two years after the entry into force, after the European Commission undertakes feasibility studies. The regulation further stipulates that 20pc of the recycled plastics content targets will be achieved by plastics from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) or from used parts and components. The provisional agreement still needs to be formally adopted over the coming months by majorities of EU states and also by the whole parliament. It will extend the regulation's provisions for collection, de-pollution and removal of parts, to all regular heavy-duty vehicles, motorcycles and both small and heavy-duty special purpose vehicles (SPVs). Danish environment minister Magnus Heunicke said the deal closes loopholes and "ensures valuable materials are kept within the EU economy, and curbs the export of polluting, non-roadworthy vehicles to third countries". Three years after entry into force, the regulation will establish a cross-border extended producer responsibility (EPR) scheme. Manufacturers will be financially and organisationally responsible for their vehicles over the entire lifecycle. And the new rules aim to better distinguish used from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). Five years after entry into force of the regulation, exports of non-roadworthy used vehicles will be banned to in order to retain recycled materials within the EU. "This agreement sets realistic targets and minimises administrative requirements," said German centre-right EPP's Jens Gieseke MEP, parliament's lead negotiator from the environment committee. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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February US benzene at discount on delayed imports

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