US cuts royalties for ‘uneconomic’ project in Gulf

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 17/10/18

President Donald Trump's administration has reduced royalty rates for an existing offshore oil and gas lease as it tries to spur more production in the Gulf of Mexico.

The administration this summer quietly cut royalty rates to 8.07pc from 18.75pc for a shallow-water well off Louisiana being proposed by independent driller Topco Offshore. It marks the first time the US has approved what is known as "special case" royalty relief for an offshore project in the past decade.

"The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has reviewed Topco's application and concluded that the project is uneconomic without royalty relief," Gulf regional director Lars Herbst said in a 14 June letter approving royalty relief. Argus obtained the letter this week under the Freedom of Information Act.

Offshore operators are seeking similar treatment on other leases. The royalty relief mechanism offers an avenue to support offshore development after US interior secretary Ryan Zinke earlier this year rejected calls by industry to cut royalty rates on new leases to 12.5pc, down from the existing rate of 18.75pc for most leases.

Offshore operators say existing royalty rates are hindering development, particularly as the industry competes for investment dollars against shale resources and offshore development abroad. The US Gulf as of last week had only 22 active drilling rigs, according to Baker Hughes data. That is two more than last year but just a third of the peak number of active rigs in 2014, when crude prices exceeded $100/bl.

"Even though commodity prices are improving, companies will go where they can get the most bang for their investment buck," National Ocean Industries Association president Randall Luthi said. "Simply stated, without royalty relief, Gulf of Mexico fields with declining production or difficult geological features may not be worth the cost."

Public interest groups say reducing royalty rates is unwarranted at a time when US oil and gas production is booming and energy prices are on the rise. US crude prices have climbed to more than $70/bl, up from close to $50/bl a year ago.

"This is a completely unnecessary taxpayer giveaway," Public Citizen's energy program director Tyson Slocum said. "I think Congress ought to be examining why taxpayers should be paying for these royalty relief provisions and why there is not more transparency over the process."

Topco Offshore last year acquired the shallow-water lease in question from another operator and then requested royalty relief in March. The lower 8.07pc royalty will terminate if Topco's capital expenditures are less than $18.1mn or if it does not begin production within one year. The royalty rate will revert to 18.75pc if the average Henry Hub natural gas price in a calendar exceeds $3.47/mmBtu. Topco partner Amanda Thompson declined to comment on the status of the project.

BSEE said in fiscal 2018 it received at least one other special case royalty relief application and two end-of-life royalty relief requests, one of which has been withdrawn. Industry officials have called on the administration to provide more clarity on the circumstances when relief will be granted.


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02/05/24

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer


01/05/24
01/05/24

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers signaled they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc, for the sixth consecutive meeting. This followed 11 rate increases from March 2022 through July 2023 that amounted to the most aggressive hiking campaign in four decades. "We don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "It appears it'll take longer to reach the point of confidence that rate cuts will be in scope." In a statement the FOMC cited a lack of further progress towards the committee's 2pc inflation objective in recent months as part of the decision to hold the rate steady. Despite this, the FOMC said the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals "have moved toward better balance over the past year," shifting prior language that said the goals "are moving into better balance." The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected. CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, had assigned a 99pc probability to the Fed holding rates steady today while giving 58pc odds of rate declines beginning at the 7 November meeting. In March, Fed policymakers had signaled they believed three quarter points cuts were likely this year. Inflation has ticked up lately after falling from four-decade highs in mid-2022. The consumer price index inched back up to an annual 3.5pc in March after reaching a recent low of 3pc in June 2023. The employment cost index edged up in the first quarter to the highest in a year. At the same time, job growth, wages and demand have remained resilient. The Fed also said it would begin slowing the pace of reducing its balance sheet of Treasuries and other notes in June, partly to avoid stress in money markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

FERC OK’s Virginia Transco gasline expansion


01/05/24
01/05/24

FERC OK’s Virginia Transco gasline expansion

New York, 1 May (Argus) — The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) today gave Williams the green light to expand natural gas capacity to Virginia by 101mn cf/d (2.9mn m3/d) on its Transco pipeline. The project, called the Commonwealth Energy Connector, involves the construction of 6.3 miles of new pipeline within Transco's existing right-of-way in southeast Virginia, near the border with North Carolina. The project also includes adding horsepower at compressor station 168, west of the new pipeline segment. Williams plans to begin construction this winter and put the project into service by the end of 2025. Environmental advocacy group Sierra Club opposed the project, arguing FERC failed to assess its potential greenhouse gas emissions, rendering its National Environmental Policy Act analysis moot. FERC disagreed, conceding that although the project's final Environmental Impact Statement demonstrated it would contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of those emissions on the environment could not be measured because FERC lacks the methodology to do so. The US south-Atlantic gas market has become more volatile in recent years as gas and power demand have soared, outpacing pipeline capacity expansions in the region. The combined gas consumption of Virginia and North and South Carolina in 2022 averaged 4.7 Bcf/d, up by 69pc from a decade earlier, US Energy Information Administration data show. Regional gas and power consumption is widely expected to continue climbing through the end of the decade on a massive build-out of data centers , especially in Virginia. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cenovus boosts oil sands output by 4pc in 1Q


01/05/24
01/05/24

Cenovus boosts oil sands output by 4pc in 1Q

Calgary, 1 May (Argus) — Canadian integrated Cenovus Energy increased its oil sands production by 4pc in the first quarter, led by gains at Lloydminster Thermal and Foster Creek heavy crude assets, and the company plans to boost output further to supply the newly opened Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. Cenovus pumped out 613,000 b/d of crude from its oil sands projects in Alberta, up from 588,000 b/d in the same quarter last year, the Calgary-based company reported on Wednesday. This was one of the highest producing quarters for Cenovus' oil sands assets since acquiring Husky in early 2021, second only to the 625,000 b/d produced in the fourth quarter that year. Cenovus has a commitment of about 144,000 b/d on the newly completed 590,000 b/d TMX pipeline, which was placed into service on Wednesday , and the company has plans to push upstream output higher over the next several years across its portfolio to meet its commitment. The pipeline nearly triples the amount of Canadian crude that can reach the Pacific coast without first having to go through the US. First-quarter production from the Lloydminster Thermal segment rose to 114,000 b/d, up from 99,000 b/d a year earlier, because of higher reliability, according to Cenovus. Cenovus' Foster Creek production rose to 196,000 b/d of bitumen, up from 190,000 b/d in first quarter 2023. The company plans to bring another 30,000 b/d online at the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) asset by the end of 2027 through optimization projects. To the north, Christina Lake's first-quarter bitumen output of 237,000 b/d was steady with previous quarters. The asset is expected to get a significant boost by the end of 2025 when a pipeline connecting the project to output from the neighbouring Narrows Lake asset is completed. The 17 kilometer (11 mile) Narrows Lake tie-back will add 20,000-30,000 b/d of bitumen to Christina Lake, which already ranks as the industry's largest SAGD project. The pipeline is 67pc complete and should be placed into service in early 2025, Cenovus executives said Wednesday on an earnings call. Northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta, new well pads are planned at Sunrise in 2025, where Cenovus also plans to push production higher by 20,000 b/d. Sunrise produced an average of 49,000 b/d in the first quarter this year, up from 45,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Cenovus' output company-wide rose to 801,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the first quarter, up from 779,000 boe/d a year earlier. This includes oil sands, natural gas liquids, natural gas, conventional and offshore assets. Cenovus posted a profit of C$1.2bn ($871mn) in the quarter, up from a C$636mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand


01/05/24
01/05/24

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

New York, 1 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and pipelines have pivoted almost in unison this year to talking up what they see as one of the strongest bullish cases for gas this decade: surging electricity demand from yet-to-be-built data centers to power artificial intelligence software. EQT, the largest US gas producer by volume, in an investor presentation last week called growing data center demand the "cornerstone" to the "natural gas bull case." Combining its own research with data from the US Energy Information Administration, the gas giant forecast an increase in gas demand of 10 Bcf/d (283mn m3/d) by 2030 to generate electricity, mostly to run data centers. Its more aggressive data center build-out scenario envisions a whopping 18 Bcf/d increase in gas demand through 2030. Total US gas production is currently about 100 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan, one of the largest US gas pipeline operators, this month forecast 20pc of US power being gobbled up by data centers in 2030, up from a 2.5pc share in 2022. Cobbling together projections from several consultancies and financial advisories, the company said the electricity needed to run artificial intelligence software alone will comprise 15pc of US power demand by 2030. If just 40pc of that demand is met by gas, that would represent an increase in gas demand of 7-10 Bcf/d, it said. This is roughly in line with the high end of US bank Tudor Pickering Holt's forecast for gas demand to power data centers through 2030 (1.3-8.5 Bcf/d) and well above Goldman Sachs' and consultancy Enverus' projections of 3.3 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d, respectively. New tech, old problems Separating the wide ranges of these projections is the highly speculative nature of forecasting demand years into the future for competing energy sources to power next-generation technology. But the major upside and downside risks, analysts say, concern the more humdrum challenges of permitting and building out energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs expects 28GW, or 60pc, of the generation capacity needed to power new data centers through 2030 will come from natural gas — 9GW from combined cycle gas turbines and 19GW from gas peaker plants. But with an average lag of four years from the time a gas transmission project is announced to the time it enters service, to say nothing of the high probability of litigation being brought by environmentalists and landowners, construction and permitting timelines are "the most top of mind constraint for natural gas," the bank said. Indeed, litigation and opposition from state regulators have ultimately led developers to call off several interstate pipeline projects in the eastern US in recent years. The exception to the rule, Equitrans' 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving forward only because congressional action allowed it to bypass federal permitting hurdles. This is a particular problem for the gas industry's hopes of exploiting the data center boom, as a large share of future data centers are slated to be built in the southeast US, far from the major US gas fields. New data centers representing 2 Bcf/d of gas demand in Georgia probably requires a new pipeline into the southeast, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Southeast premium A significant data-center buildout in the southeast without new pipelines could put upward pressure on regional gas prices, McLean said. This could exacerbate the effects of what has become perhaps the most prominent bullish case for US gas: a massive build-out of LNG export terminals along the US Gulf coast. With new export terminals pulling increasing volumes of gas south along the Transcontinental gas pipeline to super-chill and ship overseas in the coming years, the build-out in data centers will likely produce "an even bigger deficit in that southeast (gas) market," EQT chief financial officer Jeremy Knop told investors last week. "We think that market really, in time, becomes the most premium market in the country," he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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