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Viewpoint: Europe fuel oil battles IMO headwind

  • Spanish Market: Oil products
  • 19/12/18

The tightening global supply of fuel oil will continue to support prices and keep crack margins strong in northwest Europe during much of the first half of 2019. But high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices may start coming under pressure as early as the second quarter, as the effect of International Maritime Organisation (IMO) limits on sulphur content in shipping fuels from 2020 becomes more pronounced.

The downward trend in Russian fuel oil output will continue in the first half of 2019, as refiners launch new units as part of the country's modernisation programme. During 2017-18, the Russian refining sector expanded its coking and vacuum distillation capacity by 400,000 t/year and 4.6mn t/year, respectively. Over the next two years, the Russian refining sector will add a further 6mn t/yr of coking capacity, enabling it to turn more residual fuels into lighter products, including gasoil.

Exports from the FSU — Europe's largest supply region — fell by 6.8pc in the January-October period this year, to 44.2mn t, from 47.4mn t in the corresponding period last year. The decline helped send fuel oil margins to the strongest in 15 years in November. High-sulphur standard finished bunker grade RMG fuel oil barges — Europe's most liquid market — was assessed at an average discount of $2.99/bl to Urals crude cif northwest Europe in November, the narrowest monthly average discount since July 2003. RMG fuel oil's discount to Urals was on track to reach its lowest quarterly average since 2003 in the fourth quarter this year, having been at $4.50/bl on 1 October–4 December.

Refinery upgrades reduced fuel oil production in Europe to the lowest in more than two years in October this year, something that is likely to continue. Euroilstock data show fuel oil stocks were at their lowest level since at least 1990, partially because of the falling regional output.

ExxonMobil has started its new 50,000 b/d delayed coker unit (DCU) at its Antwerp refinery in October, which will take significant volumes of fuel oil off the market. The 150,000 b/d Flushing refinery in the Netherlands, owned by Lukoil-Total, is scheduled to complete its upgrade in 2019 to phase out fuel oil production.

Supply tightness will result from the reimposition of US sanctions against Iran, a major supplier of fuel oil and of sour crude, which yields large quantities of high-sulphur material. The Middle East's major storage and bunkering hub Fujairah, which used to get 60pc of its imports from Iran, has been importing increasing quantities of European and Russian fuel oil to make up for the shortfall.

The ex-wharf (fuel oil 380cst fob Fujairah barge) premium to 180cst Mideast Gulf fuel oil cargoes averaged $11.48/t in November, the highest monthly average since Argus launched the assessment in March 2017.

The removal of Iranian fuel oil from Asia-Pacific has coincided with firming demand for the product from regional power generation companies including South Korea's EWP, which has resumed operations at three fuel oil-fired power plants ahead of winter. This has been partially offset by falling demand from Pakistan, where imports reached 214,000t during the July-October period, a 90pc fall from the 2.12mn t imported a year earlier. Pakistan's refineries have been running at 60-70pc capacity to reduce the amount of fuel oil in their storage tanks.

Singapore's import demand may drop in the first quarter of next year, as higher imports in October and November drove inventories to their highest in four months, at 2.9mn t, at the end of November.

Opec and its partners are pledged to proceed with output cuts of 1.2mn b/d from October 2018 levels, concerned by consistently high crude and product stocks in the US, which have topped the five-year average in each of the past four months. A resulting decline in sour crude supplies will likely lead to further tightening of the HSFO market.

Fuel oil prices will come under substantial pressure in the second quarter ahead of implementation of the IMO decision to impose a worldwide 0.5pc sulphur limit on marine fuels. This will come into force in January 2020. Demand for HSFO will fall substantially, and the spread between the grade and IMO-compliant fuels such as 0.5pc sulphur fuel oil and gasoil will increase dramatically next year — the northwest European HSFO discount to North Sea Dated crude may widen by $18/bl in 2019 to $29/bl, according to an Argus model.

The IEA projects 3.1mn b/d of HSFO demand — nearly 80pc of the total — will be removed by the new regulations, with bunker fuel consumers switching to low-sulphur alternatives. Efforts to move to more suitable alternatives will intensify closer to the implementation date.


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17/04/25

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

Nabisy sperrt Biokraftstoffproduzenten

Hamburg, 17 April (Argus) — Die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung hat am 15. April den Zugang eines Biokraftstoffherstellers zum deutschen Biomasseregister Nabisy gesperrt. Dies führte zu einem Anstieg der Ticketpreise in Deutschland und den Niederlanden sowie der HVO-Preise in der ARA. "Dem Nabisy-Nutzer mit der ID: EU-BM-13-SSt-10022652 wurde der Zugang zur staatlichen Datenbank Nabisy [Nachhaltige - Biomasse - Systeme] gesperrt", teilte die Datenbank in einer E-Mail vom 15. April mit. Weiter hieß es, die Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung (BLE) prüfe die von diesem Nutzer in der Nabisy-Datenbank ausgestellten Nachhaltigkeitsnachweise und die daraus resultierenden Teilnachweise. Die BLE teilte Argus mit, dass sie aufgrund von Datenschutzbestimmungen keine weiteren Informationen zu der suspendierten Produktionsanlage bereitstellen kann. Die BLE prüfe derzeit die eingegangenen Beweise. Alle vom suspendierten Produzenten ausgestellten Nachweise bleiben für die Dauer der Untersuchung ungültig. Das bedeutet, dass verpflichtete Parteien keine deutschen Zertifikate zur Reduzierung von Treibhausgasemissionen von ihm einfordern können. Elmar Baumann, Geschäftsführer des Verbands der Deutschen Biokraftstoffindustrie erklärte, dass der Verband das Vorgehen des BLE für das Durchführen einer gründlichen Prüfung zur Klärung des Verdachts als zwingend erforderlich einschätzt. Weiter geht der Verband davon aus, dass "der Behörde klare Anhaltspunkte für gravierende Verstöße vorliegen" müssen. Das Ausmaß der von der Untersuchung betroffenen Biokraftstoffmengen ist unklar. Marktteilnehmer berichteten Argus jedoch, dass der Nabisy-Code des Produzenten auf Nachweisen für HVO aus Abfällen und fortschrittlichen Rohstoffen gefunden wurde. Die Nachricht führte zunächst zu höheren Preisen für deutsche THG-Zertifikate sowie für niederländische Zertifikate für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe (HBE). Verpflichtete Unternehmen befürchteten Lücken in der Erfüllung der Treibhausgasminderungsquote, sollten sie die Nachweise des suspendierten Produzenten verlieren. Die deutschen doppelt anrechenbaren THG-Zertifikate für das Jahr 2025 stiegen am 16. April um 10 €/t CO2eq auf rund 270 €/t CO2eq und blieben zum Ende der Woche weitgehend stabil. Auch die europäischen HVO-Preise stiegen, wenn auch in begrenztem Umfang. Der Fob-ARA-Aufschlag für HVO auf Palmölmühlenabwasser (POME)-Basis stieg um rund 25 $/m³, die Spotpreise für HVO auf Basis von Altspeiseöl (UCO) stiegen im Vergleich zum Ende der letzten Woche um rund 40 $/m³. Im deutschen HVO-Markt lässt sich bisher keine Reaktion erkennen. Von Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts


17/04/25
17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports


17/04/25
17/04/25

Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports

Dubai, 17 April (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's plans to integrate downstream petrochemical units with its oil refineries could weigh on naphtha exports and gasoline blending. State-controlled Aramco recently signed a deal with Chinese state-controlled Sinopec to build and integrate a 1.8mn t/yr mix-feed ethylene steam cracker and a 1.5mn t/yr aromatics complex into the 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery. This sort of integration would typically redirect naphtha to the petrochemical units and away from the gasoline blending pool, traders said. Market participants point to a likely fall in overall Saudi naphtha exports, as has been the case since the integration of petrochemical operations at the 400,000 b/d Jizan and PetroRabigh refineries in 2021 and 2008, respectively. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) data show Saudi naphtha exports in steady decline to 93,000 b/d in 2024, 108,700 b/d in 2023, 144,800 b/d in 2022 and 169,200 b/d in 2021. Data from Kpler show naphtha exports from the Yasref refinery at 22,000 b/d in 2024, down from 25,000 b/d a year earlier but higher than 19,000 b/d in 2022. The majority of these exports went to Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea. Yasref has the capacity to produce 112,000 b/d gasoline but it exported only 17,000 b/d in 2024 and 26,000 b/d in 2023. Market participants said the integration may not have any immediate significant effect on gasoline output but the addition of the aromatic complex, in theory, could need pull in more heavy full-range naphtha that is otherwise used as a blendstock for gasoline production. It remains to be seen if the new mixed feed cracker would favour naphtha or LPG as a feedstock. Ethane accounts for the majority of feedstock for Saudi crackers. The shift of focus from producing transportation fuels to petrochemicals comes as Saudi gasoline demand continues to lag pre-pandemic levels and faces pressure from growing uptake of electric vehicles. Saudi gasoline demand averaged 514,000 b/d in 2024, well below the 550,000 b/d in pre-pandemic 2019, mainly because of higher retail prices . Aramco has a target to process up to 4mn b/d of crude into petrochemicals by 2030, from 1mn b/d currently. It is developing an $11bn petrochemical expansion project at the 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery joint venture with TotalEnergies. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge


16/04/25
16/04/25

Valero Benicia refinery closure latest Calif challenge

Adds details on refinery operations, California regulations. Houston, 16 April (Argus) — US refiner Valero is planning to shut or re-purpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California, compounding the state's fuel market challenges. The company submitted a notice to the California Energy Commission (CEC) today of its intent "to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations" at the refinery by the end of April 2026. Valero also said it continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its remaining operations in the state, namely its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery. Valero said previously west coast refinery closures were likely , citing the high cost of doing business in the state given its environmental and financial regulations. California refiners in recent years have faced what the industry views as a restrictive environment for processing crude. Phillips 66 last year said it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery, saying that the long-term sustainability of the refinery was uncertain and affected by market dynamics. The Phillips 66 refinery will be shut by October. Growing legislative barriers California governor Gavin Newsom last year signed two laws, SB X1-2 and AB X2-1, which added regulations in an effort to reduce retail gasoline price volatility. The measures authorized the CEC to develop and impose requirements for in-state refiners to maintain minimum stocks of gasoline and gasoline blending components. They also authorized the CEC to determine an acceptable refining margin in the state and penalize companies that exceed it. The agency is currently in the rulemaking process on some of the measures including a requirement for refiners to submit "resupply plans" 120 days before planned maintenance that must be approved by the state. Non-compliance could carry a civil penalty of $100,000-$1mn per day. Separately, the city of Benicia recently approved a safety ordinance that applies to industrial facilities that handle hazardous materials including the Valero refinery. The ordinance included new air quality monitoring programs. California air regulators in October 2024 levied an $82mn fine against Valero for emissions violations at the Benicia refinery. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District and California Air Resources Board announced the penalty for "egregious emissions violations" stemming from a 2019 inspection that discovered unreported emissions coming from the refinery's hydrogen system. Since the 1980s, 29 refineries in California have been shut or integrated with other refineries that eventually closed or converted to renewable fuels production, according to CEC data. About half of the shut refineries were smaller operations, producing less than 20,000 b/d. Chevron, the US oil major that has long complained about a hostile regulatory environment in its home state of California, is relocating its headquarters to Houston. Valero said this week it recorded a pre-tax impairment charge of $1.1bn for the Benicia and Wilmington refineries in the first quarter as it evaluates strategic alternatives. The impairment will be treated as a special item and excluded from first quarter earnings, Valero said. The Benicia refinery produces jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, and asphalt and has more than 400 employees. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

FincoEnergies joins FuelEU compliance market


16/04/25
16/04/25

FincoEnergies joins FuelEU compliance market

London, 16 April (Argus) — Netherlands-based fuel supplier FincoEnergies has launched a pooling service to help shipowners comply with FuelEU Maritime requirements. The service will enable undercompliant ships to meet their FuelEU requirements by pooling them with vessels that run on marine biodiesel supplied by FincoEnergies' own GoodFuels brand. The pooling service is also based on a partnership with maritime classification organisation Lloyd's Register, the company said. FincoEnergies said it will take the role of "pool organiser". The FuelEU Maritime regulation, which came into effect this year, sets greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets of 2pc for vessels travelling in or out of Europe. The reduction jumps to 6pc from 2030 and gradually reaches 80pc by 2050. The pooling mechanism built into FuelEU Maritime allows shipowners to combine vessels to achieve overall compliance across the pool, enabling a system by which compliance can be traded. Argus assessed the values of FuelEU Ucome-MGO abatement and Ucome-VLSFO abatement, prices which can be used as a metric to value compliance, at an average of $302.56/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and $337.46/tCO2e, respectively, so far this year. By Hussein Al-Khalisy and Natália Coelho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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