Erste Preise für CO2-Kosten im Verkehr ab 2027 bekannt

Spanish Market: Oil products
15/05/25

Die CO2-Kosten für Heizöl und Kraftstoffe werden in 2027 [wahrscheinlich] steigen. Dies zeigen erste Transaktionen für EUAs an der ICE. Verschiedene Handelsplätze bereiten darüber hinaus die Einführung von europaweiten Handelssystemen vor oder bieten diesen bereits an.

Die nationale CO2-Abgabe (nEHS) wird im Jahr 2027 vom neuen europäischen Emissionshandelssystem (ETS 2) ersetzt. Am 06. Mai wurden hierfür erstmals Future Kontrakte für Emissionsrechte (EUA) an der ICE gehandelt. Insgesamt wurden rund 5000 EUAs in zwei Transaktionen gehandelt, beide zu 73,57 €/CO2e. Dies entspräche einer CO2-Abgabe von etwa 18,46 €/100l für Diesel, gegenüber aktuell im nEHS anfallenden 13,80 €/100l (siehe Grafik). Die CO2-Abgabe beträgt derzeit fix 55 €/t CO2e.

Auch die leipziger Energiebörse EEX wird in Zukunft den Handel mit EUAs im ETS 2 anbieten: Ab dem 7. Juli 2025 sollen entsprechende Futures Kontrakte gehandelt werden können. Die EEX ist bereits die zentrale Handelsplattform im nEHS.

Der erste Handelspreis für ETS 2 EUAs entpricht ungefährt dem Preis für EUAs im ETS 1, welches seit 2005 für Industrieemissionen gilt. Nach der Einführung des ETS 2 sollen die beiden Systeme zunächst parallel zueinander existieren, ohne Kompatibilität der jeweiligen EUAs zwischen einander. Langfristig soll jedoch auch eine Zusammenlegung der Systeme möglich sein; dies soll ab 2030 evaluiert werden.

Wie hoch die Preise für EUAs im neuen System letztendlich ausfallen werden ist dennoch ungewiss. Verschiedene Forschungsgruppen haben bereits Prognosen erstellt, die je nach Studie von Preisen zwischen 60 und 405 €/t CO2e ausgehen. Im Extremfall könnte die CO2-Abgabe über 100 €/100l für B7-Diesel betragen.

Die neue Bundesregierung bekräftigt im Koalitionsvertrag ihre Unterstützung des ETS 2, werde jedoch vom Opt-In des Agrarsektors keinen Gebrauch machen. Entsprechend wird Deutschand Emissionen aus der Landwirtschaft nicht im ETS 2 erfassen. Stark betroffene Wirtschaftsbranchen sollen unbürokratisch kompensiert werden, jedoch gibt der Koalitionsvertrag dazu keine Details.

Neben der CO2-Abgabe bzw. dem ETS2 ab 2027 ist die Treibhausgasminderungsquote das andere gesetzliche Mittel der Politik die Energiewende im Verkehr voranzubringen. Zusammen führen beide zu einem verhältnismäßigen Preisanstieg von Diesel und Benzin und machen biogene Alternativen wie HVO wettbewerbsfähiger.

Von Max Steinhau

Höhe der CO2-Abgabe nach Kraftstoff

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10/06/25

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