Mills keep margins as met coke offsets iron ore spike

Spanish Market: Coking coal, Metals
05/04/19

Chinese steelmakers have maintained gross profit margins at around 200-400 yuan/t ($30-60/t) by squeezing metallurgical coke suppliers for price cuts and relying more on lower-cost iron ores.

The loss of 100mn t of seaborne iron ore sales from dam scrutiny in Brazil and a cyclone in Australia has lifted 62pc Fe iron ore prices to two-year highs. Seaborne 62pc Fe iron ore prices have risen by $29/dry metric tonne (dmt) since November. This translates to iron ore cost increases of around $42/t of steel produced, with each tonne of steel using 1.44t iron ore with a 15pc scrap charge.

At the same time, seaborne met coke prices have fallen to around $300/t fob north China from around $400/t in November. This has reduced met coke costs by around $45/t of steel, at 0.47t of coke used per tonne of steel.

The lower coke prices have offset the rise in iron ore prices, so mills' profit margins are not being squeezed by raw material costs, a Shanghai-based iron ore trader said. He estimates local mills' profits at Yn380/t for rebar and Yn440/t for hot-rolled coil (HRC).

Chinese mills are likely saving more than seaborne coke prices because domestic prices have fallen faster.

Tangshan mills have seen average coke costs fall by 28pc to Yn1,830/t this week from Yn2,530/t in late November. At Rizhao port, 62 CSR met coke is trading at around Yn1,950/t this week, down by 30pc from Yn2,800/t in late November, while 65 CSR is trading at Yn2,000/t, down by 31pc from Yn2,900/t over the same period.

Chinese coke makers' margins have been squeezed to breakeven levels, and some operators have been pushed into negative margins. This week some coke plants resisted further price cuts and stepped back from the market, expecting rebounding steel demand to send prices higher in April-May.

Iron ore buyers sidelined

Chinese iron ore buyers are also taking the same attitude to wait out higher prices. Seaborne spot trade slowed this week with only four deals reported to Argus, a fraction of the pace a month ago when 30 deals were reported to Argus on 1-7 March. Rather than rush in to secure more supply, Chinese buyers are relying on smaller portside purchases. Chinese mills could draw down on-site inventories as well as some of the 147mn t of iron ore held at China's ports.

Mills have also shifted to lower-cost iron ore fines to cut costs, but it has sent the lower-Fe ore prices up faster.

Portside prices for Fortescue Metals' 56.5pc Fe super-special fines (SSF) have nearly doubled since October, as their discount to the 62pc fines index narrowed to around 15pc from nearly 40pc. The SSF seaborne equivalent price at $74.95/dmt cfr Qingdao yesterday was up by 93pc from $38.90/dmt in October.

The Argus ICX 62pc fines price at $93.50/dmt cfr Qingdao yesterday was up by 45pc from its recent low of $64.60/dmt in late November, while the 65pc index at $103.50/dmt yesterday rose by 28pc from its recent low of $80.75/dmt in late November.

Mill cost estimates vary

Some mills are not taking into account current spot prices in calculating gross margins.

"We have profits now because the iron ore we are using was bought earlier at a lower cost," an east China mill official said. "But I think in 10-15 days, the sharp increase in iron ore prices will start to pinch on mills' margins."

Argus' profit survey found many estimates align with current spot prices.

A Tangshan trader pegged the profit for local billet producers at around Yn300/t. Tangshan mills are offering billet at Yn3,450/t ex-works. Argus calculates a billet production cost of Yn3,025/t in Tangshan. Deducting the 13pc value-added tax that is included in the ex-works price gives an operating profit of around Yn322/t for Tangshan billet, Argus estimates.

China steel profit survey:

Rebar profit at Yn300/t and not confident. "Mills should be thankful if profits can be maintained at this level." — an east China mill.
Rebar profits at Yn300-400/t — a south China mill.
Rebar profits at Yn300-400/t, will draw down iron ore stocks — a Shandong mill.
HRC profits at Yn200-300/t before this week's iron ore price increases, with rebar profits higher — a Hebei mill.
Rebar profits at less than Yn200/t at current iron ore prices — a Hebei mill.
Rebar profits at Yn260-320/t — a central China mill.
Rebar profits at Yn600-700/t at local rebar prices above Yn4,000/t and before latest increase in iron ore spot prices — a Shandong mill.
Rebar profits estimated at more than Yn400/t for blast furnaces and at Yn150-200/t for electric arc furnaces — a futures analyst.
East China mills' rebar profits at Yn380/t and HRC profits at Yn440/t — a Shanghai trader.
Iron ore prices have narrowed gross steel profits to Yn200/t from Yn300-400/t earlier — a Shandong trader.
Rebar profits around Yn200/t — an east China trader.
Rebar net profit at Yn100-200/t — a Hebei mill trader.

China ferrous price trends since October						$/t
Product	4 April price	Recent high	High date	% +/-	$ +/-	$ +/- per t steel

Coke, coal, scrap and steel price decreases
65 CSR met coke fob China	306.00	400.50	11-05-18	-23.6%	-94.50	-44.41
62 CSR met coke fob China	295.00	390.85	11-05-18	-24.5%	-95.85	-45.05
Tier 1 coking coal fob Australia	198.40	230.00	12-17-18	13.7%	-31.60	-17.06
East China mill heavy melt scrap $/t	378.54	414.31	11-12-18	-8.6%	-35.77	-5.37
Shanghai rebar ex-warehouse $/t	587.18	700.45	10-30-18	-16.2%	-113.26	-113.26
Shanghai HRC ex-warehouse $/t	579.73	631.89	10-16-18	-8.2%	-52.16	-52.16
Product	4 April price	Recent low	Low date	% +/-	$ +/-	$ +/- per t steel

Iron ore price increases
ICX 62% fines cfr Qingdao	93.45	64.60	11-26-18	+44.7%	28.85	41.54
65% fines cfr Qingdao	103.50	80.75	11-27-18	+28.2%	22.75	32.76
SSF fines cfr Qingdao equivalent	74.95	38.90	10-08-18	+92.7%	36.05	51.91

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22/12/25

Chile watchdog clears SQM-Codelco deal

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general's office (CGR) formally acknowledged on 19 December the legality of lithium mining contracts between the country's economic development firm Corfo and a planned joint venture between Codelco and SQM, clearing the way for the partnership to proceed with conditions. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing state-owned miner Codelco to partner with private company SQM to mine lithium in the Atacama desert under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Even though it acknowledged the legality of the transaction, CGR imposed a set of conditions that need to be resolved before the deal can be finalized, all of which must happen before 31 December. The acknowledgement comes after Corfo withdrew and resubmitted a legal resolution that CGR flagged for inconsistencies on early December. CGR said the effectiveness of the approved contracts hinges on Codelco submitting documentation related to the creation of its lithium subsidiary, Minera Tarar, for retroactive legal review. CGR noted that the Codelco-SQM joint-venture agreement includes a clause tying its closing to a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation into SQM being "substantially finished," a condition the watchdog said must be waived or modified for the deal to proceed. Corfo and Codelco must send proof to CGR by year-end proving that they complied with all conditions imposed by the watchdog. The CGR has also set some ongoing guardrails to the deal, including a mechanism that ensures Codelco — under the national lithium strategy — remains the majority owner and controller of the Atacama lithium assets unless the watchdog approves a change of ownership. It also said that payments to regional government bodies must follow strict standards and may be audited. SQM-Codelco joint-venture moves forward By acknowledging the deal's legality, the CGR paves the way for the joint venture between Chilean private company SQM and state-owned Codelco to move to its closing stages, pending the resolution of the watchdog's conditions. CGR's approval was the last necessary external sign-off needed for the agreement to materialize, according to Codelco. Chile's exiting economy minister Nicolas Gráu celebrated CGR's nod, saying that it will play a big part in "allowing Chile to double lithium production in the next decade". Codelco said it will now move forward with SQM to finalize the joint-venture, an indication that it will meet and work to resolve all of CGR's conditions. The state-owned miner said that only the final legal and administrative steps are left for the deal to close. The partnership agreement, which will allow both companies to extract lithium from the Atacama salt flats from 1 January 2031 to 31 December 2060, has been undergoing a lengthy approval process since May 2023. Eight countries and over 20 Chilean regulatory bodies signed off on the deal. CGR is still performing an audit on "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco tie-up , including Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. It will also review claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. If the CGR identifies legal issues in its audit, it can order corrective measures, seek internal disciplinary action within the parties and refer its findings to prosecutors, though it lacks the authority to void the deal, leaving full responsibility with SQM and Codelco to finalize the partnership. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025

22/12/25

Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazilian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined throughout 2025, despite solid economic growth and steady demand in most sectors, with prices ending the year lower because of pricing competition between domestic and imported HRC. Argus - assessed imported HRC cfr Brazil dropped to $515-550/metric tonne (t) on 11 December, down from $535-555/t on 2 January. Argus -assessed HRC ex-works fell to R3,600-3,900/t ($655.80-702.80/t) in the latest assessment compared with R4,000-4,300/t at the start of the year. Brazilian mills resisted pressure from a rising influx of lower-priced imports stemming from an oversupply in China, holding prices steady for the first five months of the year. But mills yielded to price cuts in June, when price spreads were as much as 38pc higher than imports. Buyers were able to secure deals below R3,400/t in July, market participants told Argus . Tighter safeguard measures around the world and anti-dumping actions targeting Chinese material helped redirect steel to countries with looser trade defenses, including Brazil. Imports hit an all-time high of 6mn t in the year through Novembe r , up by 7pc from the same period last year, industry chamber Aço Brasil said. These volumes added to domestic production and boosted apparent consumption — the sum of production and imports minus exports — by 2.5pc to 24.8mn t year-to-date November. Service centers and trading companies took advantage of the lower import prices to build up their inventories. High stock levels ultimately weighed on demand and dragged down offer levels. Domestic and import sellers were forced to slash prices in June to spur buying interest in an already oversupplied market. Import HRC prices slipped below $500/t in July. Sales up The Brazilian real strengthened by 14.2pc against the dollar year-to-date mid-December, boosting import competitiveness for 2025. Imports offered another advantage beyond pricing: lower financial costs from international trading firms. Brazilian mills rarely operate on credit, and even if they did, borrowing costs in Brazil reached their highest level in 20 years in 2025. Brazil's 15pc target interest rate, which spurs higher commercial lending rates, has dampened end-user demand, but not enough to slow steel consumption significantly. Despite the rising import flows, domestic sales remained stable on the year at 19mn t year-to-date November, Aço Brasil said. Full-year 2025 domestic sales are expected to match the high-21mn t level of a year earlier, which was the highest since a demand surge during the pandemic. Brazil's gross domestic product grew by an annualized 2.7pc through September, Brazil's statistics bureau IBGE said, on track to beat the central bank's full-year growth forecast of 2.25pc. The solid economic growth has supported steel demand, especially in the construction and automotive sectors. Real estate construction starts jumped to 307,366 units year-to-date September, up by 8.4pc compared with the same period in 2024, the Brazilian construction industry chamber (CBIC) said. Real estate sales rose 4pc to 312,240 properties over the same period, CBIC data show. The Minha Casa Minha Vida low-income housing program accounted for nearly half of both sales and new units. Brazil produced 2.46mn vehicles in January-November, up by 4.1pc year-on-year, automaker association Anfavea said. Registrations rose 1.4pc to 2.1mn units over the same period, while automobile exports surged by 39pc to 510,130 units, driven by higher shipments to Argentina, Colombia and Chile. The annual drop in HRC prices in Brazil was driven less by demand and more by fierce competition between domestic producers and import suppliers, which pushed prices lower despite stable consumption. Brazilian HRC prices are expected to remain under pressure in early 2026 as high inventories and competitive import offers persist, a trader said. A modest recovery is expected in the second half of the year, depending on stronger domestic demand and potential trade defense measures, market participants told Argus . By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Asean aluminium output to reach 2.7mn t

22/12/25

Viewpoint: Asean aluminium output to reach 2.7mn t

Singapore, 22 December (Argus) — Primary aluminium output in southeast Asia is expected to rise to 2.7mn t in 2026, but supply tightness will likely persist in the first quarter because the ramp up of new capacities will be gradual, while export demand will remain strong. Southeast Asia will add 780,000 t of primary aluminium output in 2026, driven by smelter expansion in Indonesia and new smelters in Vietnam. Of which, 705,000t will come from Indonesia, sending the country's expected total output to 1.55mn t. Key projects in Indonesia include Chinese-backed Juwan in Weda Bay, Taijing in Morowali and Kaltara in North Kalimantan. Taijing and Juwan, jointly developed by Chinese companies Tsingshan and Xinfa, are expected to bring new capacity on line in 2026. Taijing plans to start production in the third quarter of 2026 with expected output of around 180,000t, while Juwan expects to reach its full capacity of 250,000 t/yr in the first quarter of 2026. Kaltara, developed by Indonesian firm Adaro and Chinese firm Lygend, began phase one operations in October-December. It plans to ramp up to its full phase one capacity of 500,000 t/yr by October 2026. These projects form part of Indonesia's strategy to leverage its abundant bauxite reserves. Indonesia's ample bauxite reserves and its success in developing a local nickel supply chain over the past decade have attracted a growing number of Chinese value-added producers seeking to integrate production chains in the country. In addition, more Chinese value-added-product (VAP) producers have expanded operations in Indonesia over the past eighteen months. They are looking to diversify supply chains to pre-empt any disruptions if China reaches its government-imposed annual capacity cap of 45mn t/yr for aluminium production. China produced about 3.8mn t of primary aluminium during January-October, up by 2pc from a year earlier, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This trend of building integrated supply chains locally in Indonesia is expected to absorb part of Indonesia's additional primary aluminium output in the coming years, given that some Chinese producers are likely to purchase aluminium to process into VAPs. Meanwhile, exports will continue to grow. Indonesia's primary aluminium exports rose by 71pc on the year to 414,600t in January–October, from 243,000t in the same period a year earlier. China remained the top destination, taking 191,500t, or 46pc of total volumes. Exports of aluminium value-added products — under HS code 7604, 7605, 7606, 7607, 7608, 7609, 7610 and 7616 — increased by 40pc on the year to around 111,000t in the same period, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Power stability and reliance on coal remain key bottlenecks for Indonesian smelters. Coal-fired captive plants dominate power supply, while renewable energy adoption is slow because of long lead times for infrastructure development and high costs, despite government efforts to push integration under its Net Zero 2060 roadmap, market participants said. In other parts of southeast Asia, Vietnam's Dak Nong smelter will commence the first phase of its operations, which has a nameplate capacity of 150,000 t/yr, in the second quarter of 2026. The project is expected to produce 75,000t of aluminium in 2026. Malaysia's Press Metal remains southeast Asia's largest integrated aluminium producer with a capacity of 1.08mn t/yr. Press is expected to operate at a utilisation rate close to 100pc for 2025 and 2026. Demand for Press' products from its smelter in Sarawak, which are considered low-carbon products in Turkey and Europe because of its hydro-powered smelter, will likely rise in response to EU's tighter carbon boarder adjustment mechanism (CBAM) requirements, effective on 1 January 2026. Indonesian state-owned producer Inalum is expected to keep output at around 280,000t or raise it slightly to about 285,000t in 2026. By Candice Luo Southeast Asia aluminium output outlook t Smelter Company Country 2025E ('000) 2026E ('000) ± in 2026 Designed Capacity ('000 t/yr) Press Metal Bintulu Press Metal Malaysia 960 960 0 960 Press Metal Mukah Press Metal Malaysia 120 120 0 120 Inalum Kuala Tanjung MIND ID Indonesia 280 285 5 600 Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia Tsinghan/Huafon Indonesia 490 500 10 500 Taijing (IMIP Phase I) Tsinghan/ Xinfa Indonesia 0 180 180 600 Juwan (IWIP Phase I) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 50 250 200 250 Xianfeng (IWIP Phase II) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 0 50 50 250 Bintan Nanshan (BAI) Nanshan Group Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 Kaltara Adaro, Lygend Indonesia 20 280 260 500 Dharma Inti Bersama (DIB) Harita Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 East Hope Indonesia East Hope Indonesia 0 0 0 2,400 Dak Nong Dak Nong Vietnam 0 75 75 450 Duc Giang Duc Giang Vietnam 0 0 0 500 Bosal Malaysia project Bosal Malaysia 0 0 0 1,000 Total 1,920 2,700 780 10,130 Source: Argus Media, Company reports, Market sources Indonesia primary aluminium shipments by market in 2025 1Q 2Q 3Q Jan-Oct '25 China 15,504 64,547 87,356 191,475 South Korea 46,188 13,599 4,500 65,787 Vietnam 7,893 9,114 16,938 42,284 Turkey 29,997 5,899 - 35,896 Malaysia 4,000 1,000 16,094 22,394 Thailand 2,520 7,891 10,191 20,702 Japan 2,250 5,775 3,050 11,700 Spain - - - 10,000 Taiwan 1,646 4,346 1,698 9,390 Italy 4,647 - - 4,647 Others - - 200 302 World 114,645 112,272 140,027 414,577 Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia,Global Trade Tracker Monthly primary aluminium exports from Indonesia (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

19/12/25

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general office (CGR) will audit "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco agreement to form a lithium production joint venture, following complaints by some of the country's parliamentarians and indigenous communities, further delaying the deal. CGR on 18 December said its scope is limited to verifying whether government actions follow the law and to audit public spending. The agency said that it is forbidden from judging whether a policy or administrative decision is a good idea or convenient. CGR does not have the power to veto the deal, because the main legal challenges to the agreement are either in court, where the watchdog has been ordered not to comment, have already been resolved by judges, or involve policy judgments that Chilean law does not allow CGR to review. As a result, its role is limited to reviewing the agreement for potential irregularities. It can flag legal inconsistencies and delay the deal's effective date until any identified issues are rectified. CGR's audit will focus on the state-owned company Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. The audit will also examine claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. Additionally, CGR will review whether the companies' directors acted lawfully and examine Chile's economic development agency Corfo's approval of the contracts that underpin the partnership. These include Corfo's contracts with SQM, which allow lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flats through December 31, 2030, and its contracts with Codelco's lithium subsidiary Minera Tarar, which enables operations at the site from 2031 to 2060. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing Codelco to partner with a private company — SQM, in this case — to mine lithium in that area under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Although the SQM-Codelco agreement , which was struck in May 2024 and would extend SQM's authorization to continue extracting lithium in the Atacama salt flats from January 2031 to 31 December 2060, does not have a hard deadline to close, it is still running against the clock. If the deal is not sealed by 31 December 2025, a contract clause in the partnership agreement allows any party to void the deal if they so choose. If this deadline is not met, Chile would also reduce SQM's lithium extraction quota by 300,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent for the remaining period until 31 December 2030, when the company's current mining permit ends. The joint-venture also faces opposition from Chile's newly elected president Jose Antonio Kast . The far-right politician said he would honor the deal if it is sealed before he takes office, but risk of an overturn would grow if that condition is not met before he is sworn in on 11 March 2026. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mills keep margins as met coke offsets iron ore spike

Iron ore buyers sidelined

Mill cost estimates vary

China steel profit survey:

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