PCX premium widens on portside iron ore buying shift

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 16/08/19

Chinese iron ore buyers have shifted heavily to portside markets to swell its premiums to seaborne prices, as they de-risk amid a nearly 29pc drop in seaborne prices over the past six weeks.

The Argus PCX 62pc Fe portside iron ore fines index fell by 17.5pc to 730 yuan/wet metric tonne (wmt) free-on-truck (fot) Qingdao, from Yn885/wmt on 1 July. By comparison, the Argus ICX 62pc seaborne index fell by 27.3pc to $89.85/dry metric tonne (dmt) from $123.65/t on 1 July and by nearly 29pc from a 3 July peak.

The faster declines in seaborne prices flipped the PCX seaborne equivalent from a discount to a premium to the ICX in early July, then sent it to as much as $11.35/dmt above the ICX on 5 August. It has since fallen to a premium of $5.80/dmt today.

The PCX premium to the ICX has exceeded $10/dmt only four times since its launch in 2014. Each occurrence has coincided with a rapid decline in seaborne markets.

Mill buyers said they have reduced their risk by shifting to a "hand-to-mouth" procurement that relies on smaller volume purchases for immediate delivery. Seaborne trade by contrast is for cargoes for delivery at least two weeks out.

The other driver for the premium is eroded economics for seaborne trades for the current month. Spot seaborne prices have fallen below the ICX's month-to-date average of $96.84/dmt, deterring buyers from indexing to August. "The seaborne market is not active as there is no profit to land August cargoes at ports," a trader said.

Mills are also cautious about iron ore demand in September when increased output restrictions ahead of anniversary celebrations of the founding of the People's Republic of China in October. This has further reduced spot interest for September-indexed cargoes.

Market participants looking to hedge immediate portside price exposure or trade the differential between portside and seaborne markets have limited options. SGX seaborne iron ore derivatives can be traded against domestic iron ore futures on China's Dalian commodity exchange (DCE), but liquidity on the DCE is confined to only a few months of the year and rolls before the start of the month.

The most active DCE contract is now January 2020, which closed up by 0.1pc at Yn626.50/t today on volume of 2.2mn lots. The second-most active contract for September 2019 closed up by 1.6pc to Yn737/t, but the volume is limited at 139,138 lots.

PCX-to-ICX iron ore price premium $/dmt

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03/05/24

Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles

Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles

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Nippon Steel delays timeline to acquire US Steel


03/05/24
03/05/24

Nippon Steel delays timeline to acquire US Steel

Tokyo, 3 May (Argus) — Japan's Nippon Steel has extended the scheduled timing of its US Steel acquisition completion until the end of the year, following a request by US authorities to submit more documentation, postponing an original plan of closing the deal by September at the latest. Nippon Steel will take more time to complete its $15bn deal to buy US Steel , as the Japanese firm received from the US Department of Justice a "second request" on submitting further documents necessary for the approval procedure. The deal was initially scheduled to close during April-September but is postponed to sometime during July-December, the Japanese firm announced on 3 May. Nippon Steel received the additional request in April, according to a company representative who spoke to Argus, without disclosing the specific date. The company anticipated the possibility of additional requirements, he added. The acquisition procedure may not finish before the US presidential election in November. Both the Democratic and the Republican party candidates repeatedly and vocally have opposed the deal , with incumbent US President Joe Biden pledging that a fellow American steel producer will be "American owned, American operated by American union steel workers". Nippon Steel is confident that its acquisition plan will eventually clear regulatory hurdles with "fair and objective judgement" from the US authorities, the representative added. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits


02/05/24
02/05/24

Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits

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Evion-Metachem Indian project starts producing graphite


02/05/24
02/05/24

Evion-Metachem Indian project starts producing graphite

Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — Australian graphite producer Evion's joint venture with Indian producer Metachem Manufacturing has produced and sold 700kg of expandable graphite, with more output planned in the coming months, after missing its timeline last year. Capacity of the expandable graphite plant, located at Kurkumbh near the west Indian city of Pune, will increase to at least 1,800 t/yr over the coming months, said Evion in its latest quarterly activity report. The agreement between the two firms originally envisioned 2,000-2,500 t/yr of production capacity in the first three years, with plans to begin an expansion to double the capacity starting from the second year. Evion previously was expecting first production in October-December 2023. Evion, formerly known as BlackEarth Minerals, back in 2021 signed an offtake deal with Austrian downstream graphite firm Grafitbergbau Kaiserberg for up to 2,500 t/yr of expandable graphite. Graphite concentrate for the plant is expected to come from external parties in the first two years of operations, subsequently switching to products from its Maniry graphite project in Madagascar, said Evion. Madagascar's national office for the environment is carrying out the environmental and social impact assessment for the Maniry project, according to Evion. India in July 2023 identified 30 critical minerals necessary to its green energy transition and energy self-reliance, including graphite. The country's mines ministry, through state trading firm MSTC, in March launched the second round of its auction , involving 18 blocks, for development of critical and strategic minerals in the country. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual


01/05/24
01/05/24

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Southbound barge rates in the US have fallen on unseasonably low demand because of increased competition in the international grain market. Rates for voyages down river have deteriorated to "unsustainable" levels, said American Commercial Barge Line. Southbound rates declined in April to an average tariff of 284pc across all rivers this April, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is below breakeven levels for many barge carriers. Rates typically do not fall below a 300pc tariff until May or June. Southbound freight values for May are expected to hold steady or move lower, said sources this week. Southbound activity has increased recently because of the low rates, but not enough to push prices up. The US has already sold 84pc of its forecast corn exports and 89pc of forecast soybean exports with only five months left until the end of the corn and soybean marketing year, according to the USDA. US corn and soybean prices have come down since the beginning of the year in order to stay competitive with other origins. The USDA lowered its forecast for US soybean exports by 545,000t in its April report as soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were more competitively priced. US farmers are holding onto more of their harvest from last year because of low crop prices, curbing exports. Prompt CBOT corn futures averaged $435/bushel in April, down 34pc from April 2023. Weak southbound demand could last until fall when the US enters harvest season and exports ramp up southbound barge demand. Major agriculture-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil are expected to export their grain harvest before the US. Brazil has finished planting corn on time . unlike last year. The US may face less competition from Brazil in the fall as a result. Carriers are tying up barges earlier than usual to avoid losses on southbound barge voyages. Carriers that have already parked their barges will take their time re-entering the market unless tariffs become profitable again. The carriers who remain on the river will gain more southbound market share and possibly more northbound spot interest. By Meghan Yoyotte and Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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