Alcoa forecasts higher aluminum demand amid surplus

US Fed sees 2 rate cuts in '25, eyes tariffs: Update

US Fed sees 2 rate cuts in '25, eyes tariffs: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic backdrop. Houston, 18 June (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target interest rate unchanged today and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year while downgrading forecasts for the US economy in the face of largely tariff-driven uncertainty. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc, in the fourth meeting of 2025. This followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which lowered the target rate from more than two-decade highs. In the Fed's first release of updated economic projections since President Donald Trump's 2 April "Liberation Day" announcement of far-ranging tariffs, policymakers continued to pencil in two quarter-point rate cuts for the remainder of the year. "Changes to trade, immigration, fiscal and regulatory policies continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain," Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting. "Today, the amount of the tariff effects — the size of the tariff effects, their duration and the time it will take, are all highly uncertain. So that is why we think the appropriate thing to do is to hold where we are as we learn more." Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their median estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.4pc from a prior estimate of 1.7pc in the March economic outlook. They see inflation rising to a median 3pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.7pc, with unemployment rising to 4.5pc from 4.4pc in the prior forecast. Economists have warned that Trump's erratic use of tariffs and plans to raise the national debt, along with mounting geopolitical risk highlighted by the latest Israel-Iran clashes, threaten to throw the economy into a recession or marked slowdown. Consumer confidence has tumbled and financial markets have been volatile while the dollar has slumped to three-year lows. Still, the labor market and inflation — the two pillars of the Fed's policy mandate — have remained relatively stable into the fifth month of Trump's administration. "As long as the economy is solid, as long as we're seeing the kind of labor market that we have and reasonably decent growth, and inflation moving down, we feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are, where our policy stance is and learn more," Powell said. US job growth slowed to 139,000 in May, near the average gain of 149,000 over the prior 12 months and unemployment has remained in a range of 4-4.2pc since May 2024. Consumer inflation was at an annual 2.4pc in May, down from 3pc in January. US GDP growth contracted by an annual 0.2pc in the first quarter, largely due to an increase in imports on pre-tariff stockpiling, down from 2.4pc in the fourth quarter and the lowest in three years. "What we're waiting for to reduce rates is to understand what will happen with the tariff inflation," Powell said. "And there's a lot of uncertainty about that. Every forecaster you can name who is a professional is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs." Before Wednesday's FOMC announcement, Trump made a rambling attack on the Fed's policy under Powell, in remarks to reporters at the White House. "I call him 'too late Powell', because he's always too late" in lowering rates. "Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I do a much better job than these people." Powell's term in office as Fed chair expires in May 2026. Powell declined to directly address Trump's comments. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.