Forward US crude storage demand reveals prolonged need
US crude storage demand has risen for forward months extending as far out as 2021, indicating that storage needs may be increasing beyond the prompt delivery period amid low demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prompt June US crude prices in the physical pipeline markets remain discounted to second-month July deliveries on average, although the gap has been narrowing. Paired with the growing interest in a number of crude storage auctions around the country, it may be a sign in greater confidence in storage economics beyond 2020, with prompt prices at deeper discounts to forward prices in 2021.
Argus Forward Curves as of 1 May indicate domestic sweet crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, for June delivery is at roughly a $2.50/bl discount to July delivery, although the gap grows to about $9.55/bl by January 2021, and to about $14.05/bl by December of next year.
In the midcontinent storage market, American Midstream Partners is offering 3.6mn bl of crude storage space from the first quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter in tomorrow's auction for space at Cushing, Oklahoma. The company sold 100pc of its 3.6mn bl offered storage space for the first half of 2021 in its most recent auction on 21 April, after selling no storage for the same period in its auction held 7 April.
At the US Gulf coast, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is offering 8.4mn bl of crude in tomorrow's LOOP Sour storage space auction, including 5.7mn bl from the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2021.
LOOP sold 100pc of the 11.1mn bl of storage space offered in its 7 April, including 6.9mn bl of space from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2021, up from 1.5mn bl of space from the first quarter to the second quarter of next year in its 4 March auction. Crude grades that can be stored in LOOP Sour storage include medium sour Mars, Poseidon, Iraqi Basrah, Arab Medium and Kuwaiti. Once crude is delivered from the LOOP Sour cavern space, it is traded as LOOP Sour crude.
Although Mars has been at a prompt June premium to second-month July delivery for two consecutive days, June Mars still averages a roughly 30¢/bl discount to July Mars as of 1 May. As for the grade's daily close, June Mars was roughly at an 80¢/bl premium to July Mars at the end of last week, flipping from roughly a $2.15/bl discount when the week began.
Argus Forward Curves from 1 May indicate June Mars at roughly a $5.20/bl discount to January 2021 Mars, with the contango trend deepening as prompt Mars is at roughly an $9.20/bl discount to December 2021 Mars.
Related news posts
TMX oil specs inappropriate: Valero, Chevron
TMX oil specs inappropriate: Valero, Chevron
Calgary, 13 May (Argus) — Crude quality specifications on the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in western Canada are not narrow enough and may prevent buyers in California from taking crude shipped on the recently commissioned system, according to two US refiners. The 590,000 b/d TMX pipeline was placed into service on 1 May, a welcome addition for both producers in Alberta and refiners on the Pacific rim, but the upper limits allowed for crude on the line relating to vapor pressure and Total Acid Number (TAN) are problematic, Chevron and Valero said in letters to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) on 10 May. The specifications, as set out by Trans Mountain's rules and regulations, were already in place for the original 300,000 b/d crude pipeline, or Line 1, which also carries refined products that require a higher vapor pressure. TMX, or Line 2, will primarily cater to heavy crude shippers. But the vapor pressure limit of 103 kPa at 37.8°C on the new line is nearly 40pc higher than tanks allow, according to Valero. "High vapor pressure crude oil simply cannot be accepted in United States internal floating roof tanks," wrote Valero. The current limits are "wholly inappropriate" and will result in crude being transported through TMX that is not suitable for the west coast market. Chevron concurred that the specifications exceed the limit for storage tanks at its own California refineries in Richmond and El Segundo. "Failure to amend the TAN specification and vapor limits for TMPL may prevent Chevron from purchasing or processing crude from [Trans Mountain] for our California refineries," the company wrote. The letters were in support of a 12 April complaint by Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) to the CER, requesting the regulator intervene. Fellow oil sands producers Suncor, Imperial Oil, MEG Energy and ConocoPhillips also wrote in support, as did industry groups Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) and Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA). Current rules state crudes must have a TAN of less than 1.3mg KOH/g to be considered a Low TAN Dilbit, but that is "inappropriately high," according to CNRL, and should be brought down to the same 1.1mg KOH/g threshold set by other export pipelines. Cenovus and Plains Midstream wrote that the CER did not need to intervene as this was a commercial matter. "This is effectively a commercial dispute that should be dealt with between the sophisticated commercial entities involved," said Plains. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Potential strike threatens Vancouver port again
Potential strike threatens Vancouver port again
Calgary, 13 May (Argus) — A labour dispute at the Canadian port of Vancouver could result in another work stoppage, less than a year after a strike disrupted the flow of more than C$10bn ($7.3bn) worth of goods and commodities ranging from canola and potash to coking coal. Negotiations between the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Ship and Dock Foremen Local 514 union have stalled as the two sides try to renew an agreement that expired on 1 April 2023. A 21-day "cooling-off period" concluded on 10 May, giving the union the right to strike and the employers association the right to lock out the workers. A vote and 72-hour notice would first need to occur before either action is taken. The BCMEA filed a formal complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) the same day, which had to step in last year in another dispute. The BCMEA locked horns with ILWU Canada over a separate collective agreement in 2023 leading to a 13-day strike by the union in July. This disrupted the movement of C$10.7bn of goods in and out of Canada, according to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade. Vancouver's port is the country's largest — about the same size as the next five combined — and describes itself as able to handle the most diversified range of cargo in North America. There are 29 terminals belonging to the Port of Vancouver. Terminals that service container ships endured the most significant congestion during last year's strike. Loadings for potash, sulphur, lumber, wood pellets and pulp, steel-making coal, canola, copper concentrates, zinc and lead concentrate, diesel and renewable diesel liquids and some agri-foods were also disrupted. The Trans Mountain-operated Westridge Marine Terminal responsible for crude oil exports on Canada's west coast was unaffected. A deal was eventually reached on 4 August. The strike spurred on proposed amendments to legislation in Canada that would limit the effect of job action on essential services. A bill introduced in Canada's Parliament in November would update the Canada Labour Code and CIRB Regulations accordingly. The bill has been progressing through the House of Commons, now having completed the second of three readings. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chevron books Aframax for TMX cargo to California
Chevron books Aframax for TMX cargo to California
Houston, 13 May (Argus) — Chevron provisionally hired an Aframax to haul a cargo of crude from Vancouver, British Columbia, to the US west coast as the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) brings more oil to Canada's Pacific coast. Chevron put the Aframax Garibaldi Spirit on subjects for a Vancouver-US west coast voyage loading from 25 May at WS125, market participants said. That rate is equivalent to $11.16/t or $1.63/bl for heavy sour Cold Lake, according to Argus data. The US west coast historically has been the main destination for crude exported from Vancouver, with 96pc, or about 38,500 b/d, landing at ports in Washington and California in the 12 months ended 30 April, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa. Chevron purchased five cargoes from Vancouver for its 269,000 b/d refinery in El Segundo, California, during that span, most recently in February. The 590,000 b/d TMX project began commercial service on 1 May, tripling the capacity of the Trans Mountain pipeline system to 890,000 b/d. The line creates a larger link from Alberta's growing oil sands production to the west coast port of Vancouver and direct access to Pacific Rim markets, where buyers are eager for heavy sour crude . The first TMX cargo, 550,000 bl of Canadian Access Western Blend which Suncor booked on an Aframax in late April , will load between 18-24 May for June delivery in China. PetroChina and Unipec each control an Aframax near Canada's Pacific coast that would be available to load in Vancouver in the second half of May, though those ships could also be relet to deliver crude to the US west coast. The port of Vancouver's distance from many traditional Aframax trading routes may stretch the global fleet once TMX ramps up. The port cannot accommodate tankers larger than Aframaxes. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
FTC flexes muscles over US oil mergers
FTC flexes muscles over US oil mergers
New York, 13 May (Argus) — US antitrust regulator the Federal Trade Commission's insistence that the former chief executive of independent Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield, be barred from ExxonMobil's board as a condition of approving their $64.5bn merger serves as a cautionary tale for other pending deals. The FTC alleged that Sheffield, a long-time industry leader who made Pioneer one of the biggest producers in the Permian, sought to collude with Opec. It cited hundreds of text messages in which he discussed pricing and output with officials from the oil cartel, as well as efforts to co-ordinate with other Texas producers. The fallout for other transactions still going through the approvals process may be limited, given the specific nature of the allegations against Sheffield, but the FTC's action shows the agency will not hesitate to demand concessions in order to wave deals through. Given heightened political sensitivities to fuel prices in an election year, that should put the industry on notice. At the very least, future reviews are likely to include requests to turn over any records — electronic or otherwise — that involve discussions with competitors or other oil-producing jurisdictions, according to former FTC chairman Bill Kovacic. "It's a reminder that conversations with your competitors about production levels and pricing levels are exceedingly unwise," Kovacic says. It was significant that the FTC did not tamper with the basic fundamentals of the Pioneer acquisition. "I suspect the former CEO is unhappy about being placed on the sidelines," he says. But it is also a "relatively inexpensive price to pay for getting this done". Under the leadership of Lina Khan, the FTC has taken a tougher line when it comes to mergers, and second requests for information have become the norm when it comes to oil deals. Chevron's planned $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess has been held up by such a request, even as a dispute over the target company's stake in a giant offshore find in Guyana has cast a cloud over the transaction. Diamondback Energy's announced $26bn takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources was also subject to a second request. Occidental Petroleum chief executive Vicki Hollub told analysts in February that "some of our teams felt like [the FTC] asked for everything" when going through the approval process for the company's $12bn purchase of CrownRock. But Occidental said this week that its teams are working "constructively" with the regulator, and that the deal is expected to close in the third quarter. Consolidation over consumers? The rapid pace of consolidation in the US oil and gas sector since late last year has led to mounting calls for increased scrutiny on antitrust grounds. "Let's not kid ourselves, these mergers aren't just about efficiency or lowering costs," US Senate Democratic majority leader Chuck Schumer wrote in a letter signed by 50 Senate and House Democrats in March. They are about "buying out the competition so the newly consolidated industry can boost profits at the expense of consumers". Given long-serving company executives' preference to stick around after selling their firms, the FTC's action in relation to Pioneer could theoretically dissuade other ‘big-name' founders from going down the same road, consultancy Rystad senior analyst Matthew Bernstein says. On the other hand, the loss of control for family-owned operators has already served as a big enough obstacle for some companies that would otherwise be seen as takeover targets. As for Sheffield, Pioneer has said the FTC's complaint reflects a "fundamental misunderstanding" of US and global oil markets and "misreads the nature and intent" of his actions. Pioneer more than doubled its daily production between 2019 and 2023, playing its part in adding to domestic energy supply, the firm said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more