Atlantic coking coal: Miners' outlook strengthens
Spot activity continues to be sporadic in the Atlantic coking coal market, as participants hope that early signs of a stronger third quarter in terms of volumes will be borne out. But China's import restrictions are seen as a factor that could weigh on a potential uptick.
US coking coal prices moved up today, with the Argus daily assessment for low-volatile coking coal up by 50¢/t to $107.50/t fob Hampton Roads, while the high-volatile A and B assessments rose by $1.50/t to $113/t and $107/t fob Hampton Roads.
"I did not think recovery would come quite so early. But we are seeing car and pipe manufacturing recover when not so long ago the expectation for end-users was to be running on inventories for awhile," a US mining firm said.
A Turkish mill with a tender for two high-volatile cargoes and two low-volatile cargoes bought two Russian high-volatile cargoes for $85/t cfr Turkey, as reported earlier this week, and three cargoes from a US mining firm, including mid-volatiles and low-volatiles, at less than $100/t fob Hampton Roads. "It was probably the lowest deal we will have done, although the relativity was strong if you add on the 5.5pc Turkish import tax and the freight rate, which we paid. It was a win-win. They did not need an extra vessel and it provided some relief with inventory, but we will be able to walk away from deals like that in the future," the mining firm said.
A Brazilian mill has a tender for a 25,000t cargo of high-volatile A coking coal for August-loading, while another Brazilian mill is expected to be in the spot market for high-volatile A material in the third quarter after recently closing a tender seeking low-volatile material.
Latin American longs producer Gerdau's announcement that it will restart blast furnace 1 on 1 July has also contributed to cautious optimism among suppliers who sell to Brazil. "Construction and white goods in Brazil have held up much better than I expected," a US mining firm said. "Until a few days ago, I thought Brazil was still searching for a lowest point, but now I think they have found one. Most big mills will remain cautious, which will hopefully encourage some stability."
Some participants are seeing "almost normal schedules" from Japanese and South Korean buyers for the third quarter, and one mining company said it had started discussions with at least three Indian buyers. "The pricing is low and it is hard to do business, but it is a good sign," it said.
Plenty of uncertainty remains over China's import restrictions and the lack of clarity over what direction they will take. "First it is just Australia, then it is the US, then it is Australia and Russia. The quotas seem to come and go and nobody knows exactly which coals they are aimed at," a global trading firm said. "China in July will really affect the game; if it is strict with quotas, then Australian mining firms will flood the European and South American markets with whatever they can ship."
A renewed spike in Covid-19 cases in the US has prompted fear among some buyers that supply may be disrupted. "I do not think that supply will be disrupted," a US mining company said. "But there has been a psychological shift after demand was the only worry for many weeks."
Some participants expect further mine closures in the US, with several producers operating below costs for a sustained period.
Ongoing steel production cuts in Europe have meant that merchant coke from CIS and Polish producers are turning to the more lucrative Chinese market where domestic prices continue to be strong. A recent offer for Polish met coke was heard at €160/t delivered to Duisburg, equivalent to $130/t ex-works in Poland. "If I could, I would buy the cheap coke and store it but we are under strict cash management at the moment and a purchase like that would not be approved," a northern European mill said.
Related news posts
US inflation slows broadly in April
US inflation slows broadly in April
Houston, 15 May (Argus) — US consumer price gains eased in April, with core inflation posting the smallest gain in three years, signs the economy is slowing in the face of high borrowing costs. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by an annual 3.4pc in April, easing from 3.5pc over the prior 12-month period, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by 3.6pc, slowing from 3.8pc the prior month. The easing inflation comes as the Federal Reserve has pushed back the expected start of interest rate cuts after holding its target rate at a 23-year high since July 2023 as the US economy has continued to grow and generate jobs at greater than expected rates. Job growth however slowed to 175,000 in April, the lowest since October 2023, and job openings and wage gains have also slowed while a measure of manufacturing has contracted. The CME FedWatch tool boosted the probability of Fed rate cuts in September to about 72pc today from about 65pc on Tuesday. The energy index rose by 2.6pc over the 12 months ended in April, accelerating from 2.1pc. The gasoline index slowed to an annual 1.2pc in April from 1.3pc The food index rose by an annual 2.2pc, matching the prior month. Shelter slowed to 5.5pc from 5.7pc. Services less energy services slowed to 5.3pc from 5.4pc. Transportation services accelerated to an annual 11.2pc, led by insurance costs, from 10.7pc in the 12 months through March. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation slowed to 0.3pc in April from 0.4pc the prior two months. Core inflation slowed to 0.3pc from 0.4pc the prior three months. Energy held flat at a monthly 1.1pc. Services less energy services slowed to a monthly 0.4pc gain from 0.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Liberty looks to sell or recapitalise EU rolling lines
Liberty looks to sell or recapitalise EU rolling lines
London, 15 May (Argus) — Beleaguered steelmaker Liberty Steel is looking to recapitalise or divest its main European rolling lines, the company said today. The lines are Liege in Belgium, Dudelange in Luxembourg and Piombino in Italy, and have a capacity of over 2.5mn t, the company said. Liege and Dudelange galvanise hot-rolled coil (HRC) and produce tinplate and blackplate, Magona produces prepaint and hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) products. "The primary objective is to review options for strategic partnerships through long-term HRC feedstock supply contracts, but will also consider and [sic] co-investment and divestment options," Liberty said. Negotiations over at least one of the assets have been ongoing for a number of months, but have potentially stalled at the contract signing stage, sources suggested this week. The company refused to comment on "speculation". As with Liberty's other EU and UK assets, the lines have not been producing anywhere near full capacity, if at all, for a number of years. They have not been supplied with feedstock from the company's own mills. Galati in Romania is operating, but nowhere near capacity, while Ostrava is rolling limited quantities of imported slab with the aid of third-party financing. As far back as June 2021, Belgium's Walloon government discussed loaning Liberty Steel an undisclosed fee to continue operating Liege-Dudelange, subject to the organisation of a sales procedure being started. Walloon's investment firm Sogepa said the loan would be subject to "strict conditions", including the organisation of a sale, but the loan was not finalised in the end. That same month, Liberty merged the downstream assets of Dudelange, Liege and Piombino into its Galati organisation. At the time the company said this would see Galati become the primary supplier of HRC to the rolling lines. The difficult market environment in Europe is compounding the difficulties faced by Liberty. Last week it mothballed its merchant bar mill in Scunthorpe, UK , as first reported by Argus . In reality, the mill has not produced anything for years. At Liberty's Speciality Steel business in south Yorkshire, UK, around 7,000t has been produced this year, out of nameplate capacity of 1.2mn t/yr. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
VW idles Brazil auto plants as floods hit parts supply
VW idles Brazil auto plants as floods hit parts supply
Sao Paulo, 14 May (Argus) — Persistent heavy rains in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul led Volkswagen to announce collective vacation for workers in three of its local plants as the automaker struggles with a lack of parts made in the flood-hit state. The Anchieta, Taubate and Sao Carlos facilities, in southeastern Sao Paulo state, will have collective vacation starting 20 May as floods forced auto part suppliers to stop production. "Due to the heavy rains affecting the state and people of Rio Grande do Sul, some Volkswagen do Brasil parts suppliers, with factories installed in the state, are unable to produce at this time," the company said on Tuesday. Volkswagen declined to comment on which auto parts suppliers were affected by the floods. Volkswagen's Sao Jose dos Pinhais facility, in Rio Grande do Sul, will remain operating, the company said. Heavy rains that began flooding Rio Grande do Sul in late April persisted over the weekend , continuing to wreak havoc in the state. Rains reached an accumulated 123mm (4.8in) on 10-12 May in the state capital Porto Alegre, according to Brazil's national meteorological institute Inmet. Some areas experienced around 80mm of rain on 12 May alone, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Showers lessened but continued on 13 May, reaching 35mm in some parts of the state. The extreme weather has left 148 dead and 124 missing, according to the civil defense. Over 538,000 people are displaced. By Carolina Pulice Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Anglo American to exit from coal, Ni, platinum: Update
Anglo American to exit from coal, Ni, platinum: Update
Adds details of Anglo American's latest plan to demerge or sell its assets Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — UK-South African mining firm Anglo American has announced plans to exit its coal, platinum, nickel and diamond businesses, shortly after rejecting Australian resources firm BHP's latest takeover bid. Anglo American wants to sell its coking coal business in Australia, which includes the 6.5mn t/yr Moranbah and 5mn t/yr Grosvenor mines in Queensland. The firm also plans to demerge Anglo American Platinum, as well as sell or demerge its De Beers diamond business, it said on 14 May. Anglo American will also slow investment in its Woodsmith polyhalite fertilizer project in the UK, where it was previously targeting first commercial output in 2027 . It is also exploring options for care and maintenance as well as divestment of its nickel assets in Brazil. The move to "accelerate the delivery of consistently stronger shareholder returns" with the latest plan comes on the back of a takeover bid by BHP. Anglo American turned down a revised £34bn ($42.7bn) takeover proposal from BHP on 13 May because it "continues to significantly undervalue Anglo American and its future prospects". It earlier rejected BHP's £31bn all-share offer for the same reason. "The latest proposal from BHP again fails to recognise the value inherent in Anglo American," Anglo American chairman Stuart Chambers said on 13 May. Anglo American shareholders are well positioned to benefit from increasing demand from "future-enabling products", Chambers added. Copper was the second-highest contributor to Anglo American's earnings last year, accounting for 32pc of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, after iron ore. BHP's latest offer represents a total value of around £27.53 per Anglo American ordinary share, including £4.86 in Anglo Platinum shares and £3.40 in Kumba shares, BHP said on 13 May. The takeover proposal came with a requirement for Anglo American to complete two separate demergers of its entire shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore — its assets in South Africa — to Anglo American shareholders. "This leaves Anglo American, its shareholders and stakeholders disproportionately at risk from the substantial uncertainty and execution risk created by the proposed inter-conditional execution of two demergers and a takeover," Anglo American said. By Reena Nathan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more