CCS to be cost neutral for new gas stations: UK

Spanish Market: Electricity
27/08/20

Adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to a combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) commissioning in 2025 could be cost neutral over the lifetime of the plant, but the cost of such units would still be almost double that of onshore wind and solar, according to forecasts from the UK's Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (Beis).

Beis forecast the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for conventional CCGTs commissioning in 2025 and running for 25 years at £85/MWh in 2018 prices. It would also be £85/MWh for a CCGT with CCS.

This is based on carbon costs of £32/MWh for a conventional CCGT, and just £3/MWh for one with CCS, implying an average carbon price of £80-100/t over the 25-year lifetime. This is well above the current level of around £44/t, based on front-year EU emissions trading system (ETS) prices and the UK's additional £18/t carbon price support. Beis assumes the carbon price will rise above £200/t by 2050.

Construction costs for a CCGT with CCS are forecast to be £23/MWh, compared with £7/MWh for one without CCS. Assumed fuel costs are £40/MWh for CCGT but £45/MWh for one with CCS. CO2 transport and storage costs are just £3/MWh for a unit with CCS.

The LCOE for a CCGT with CCS is expected to remain similar for projects delivering out to 2040, whereas for units with unabated gas generation it rises to £125/MWh by 2040, as carbon costs are projected to rise to £70/MWh.

UK utility SSE is looking to build a CCGT with CCS in the mid-2020s.

The forecast LCOEs for renewables coming on line in 2025 are much lower, at £57/MWh for offshore wind, £46/MWh for onshore wind and £44/MWh for large-scale solar.

Such projects have no fuel or carbon costs, but higher construction costs at £27-31/MWh, and fixed operation and maintenance costs of £10-19/MWh, compared with £2/MWh for CCGTs.

The LCOE for new solar projects falls to £33/MWh by 2040, while onshore wind falls to £44/MWh and offshore wind to £40/MWh.

Offshore wind load factors are expected to rise to 51pc in 2025, 57pc in 2030 and 63pc in 2040. This comes as turbine sizes steadily rise from 9MW in 2020 to 20MW in 2040.

Offshore wind costs have fallen dramatically since the last report in 2016, when Beis was forecasting an LCOE of £106/MWh by 2025 and £103/MWh by 2030.

Its forecast for nuclear projects is unchanged from 2016, at £95/MWh in 2012 prices for projects coming on line in 2025.

Beis also calculated an "enhanced LCOE" which includes the wider system impacts of a technology, such as its ability to provide firm capacity and to help balance the system.

The enhanced LCOE falls to £40-65/MWh for a CCGT coming on line in 2025, compared with £61-73/MWh for one with CCS, £56-73/MWh for onshore wind, £53-66/MWh for large-scale solar and £69-85/MWh for offshore wind.

By Killian Staines

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06/11/25

Prices rise in French biomethane RGGO auction

London, 6 November (Argus) — The European Energy Exchange (EEX) nearly sold out of available French biomethane renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGOs) at its November auction, with average prices reflecting those in the over-the-counter (OTC) market since the August auction. As the final auction of 2025, this completes the average 2025 auction price for French RGGO taxes. All but 1MWh of the offered 144GWh of RGGOs were sold in the 5 November auction for a weighted average price of €13.98/MWh. EEX calculated the reference price for the auction at €13.96/MWh. Prices averaged €12.18/MWh in the previous auction, when 107GWh of RGGOs traded in August. Initially, 147GWh produced in March-June was eligible to go into the auction . Three French municipalities pre-empted 2.98GWh of the volumes before the auction, up from 2.16GWh from one municipality before the August auction. Argus assessed French uncertified RGGOs for 2025 production at €13.90/MWh on 30 October. Bids for French uncertified RGGOs had been around €12.50/MWh at the time of the previous auction. Certified, ETS-eligible RGGOs did not sell at a premium to uncertified or non-ETS eligible volumes. As in previous auctions, EEX cannot transfer ownership of the Proof of Sustainability for any volumes sold, which limits their use for compliance. For volumes sold in the OTC market, Argus assessed certified, ETS-eligible French RGGOs from any feedstock at a €9.10/MWh premium to uncertified equivalent. The French government now applies a floor for declared tax levels for 75pc of the sale of RGGOs that are not used in transport. This is based on 75pc of the average reference prices from auctions the previous year to the production. The average of the EEX reference prices for the four 2025 auctions is €10.86/MWh, which would mean a floor of €8.14/MWh. Argus assessed 2026 vintage uncertified RGGOs at €16/MWh on 30 October. Only RGGOs from subsidy-supported biomethane, where the subsidy contract was signed after 9 November 2020, are auctioned on the EEX. Around 405GWh of biomethane RGGOs were auctioned in 2025. By Emma Tribe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil environment minister defends mitigation

05/11/25

Brazil environment minister defends mitigation

Rio de Janeiro, 5 November (Argus) — Brazil's minister for environment and climate change, Marina Silva, defended the importance of equally pursuing mitigation and adaptation to reduce climate change on the sidelines of the Cop 30 Local Leaders Forum in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. "We must adapt and mitigate with the same force and strength," she said. "We can't treat the symptoms without treating the causes." Mitigation relates to reducing emissions while adaptation focuses on adjusting to the effects of climate change. Silva was responding to billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates' recent memo criticizing the climate community's focus on reducing emissions, just days before countries gather in Belem, Brazil, for Cop 30 with the implementation of emissions-cutting actions high on the agenda. Governor Helder Barbalho of Para, the state hosting Cop 30, echoed Silva. "We face a climate emergency which demands that the agendas of emissions reduction, adaptation, resilience and energy transition are at the center of global agendas," he said. Cities on the road to Cop Delegates gathered in Rio stressed the importance of city, state and other regional governments' actions to contribute to a successful Cop. "Cities, states and regions are where the climate fight can be won or lost," executive secretary Simon Stiell of the UN climate body UNFCC said. Participants downplayed US president Donald Trump not sending a high-level delegation to Cop 30. "It's a good thing, actually, that they are not sending anybody," former US special envoy for climate change Todd Stern said. "It wasn't going to be constructive if they did. It's an unpredictable bunch." Even oil and natural gas-producing states such as New Mexico are contributing, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) said, highlighting that her state has increased hydrocarbon production while reducing methane emissions in recent years. "Even without federal policy … our commitments are going to continue to keep America accountable and invested in where we are globally," Lujan said. Michael Bloomberg, co-host of the event through Bloomberg Philanthropies, announced a $168mn commitment to support local climate leadership, notably through the C40 coalition of cities and Global Covenant of Mayors. Representatives of subnational governments and networks, representing over 14,000 local leaders, signed the Local Leaders Declaration to Cop 30, in which they pledged to contribute to the coming decade of climate action. The three pledges include supporting countries in reaching their national climate targets, directing climate financing to both mitigation and adaption with a portfolio of 2,500 local projects, and pushing for multilevel collaboration and action for the Cop to be a space of implementation. For Mayor Kate Gallego of Phoenix, Arizona, the most important outcome from the event will be a statement demanding a commitment to sustainable artificial intelligence. "As artificial intelligence grows, it must be powered sustainably," she said. "It must use clean energy." By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Metdesk forecasts a cold end of November in NW Europe

05/11/25

Metdesk forecasts a cold end of November in NW Europe

London, 5 November (Argus) — Forecaster Metdesk expects a cold snap with little wind in northwest Europe at the end of November after a mild and windy start to the month. "A cold and low wind episode" is likely to take place in northwest Europe in the final third of the month, according to the most recent update provided by Metdesk today. This could boost heating and gas-fired demand in the region. The forecaster does not expect temperatures as cold as in December 2022 however, when overnight lows fell 2.7°C below the norm in London and 1.5ºC in Essen. The first half of November is nevertheless expected to be "mild" or even "very mild" in Europe, the forecaster added. The remnants of Hurricane Melissa are likely to pass eastwards between Scotland and Iceland and lead to mild weather at the beginning of November, with strong winds affecting the UK and Norway in particular, Metdesk specified. And "some signs of a large high pressure area expanding over northwest and central Europe" could cause Dunkelflaute events — when weather conditions are both overcast and still — more likely in the next two weeks, the forecaster said. Some dunkelflaute events took place in November and December last year, caused by intense areas of high pressure formed over northwest Europe. These events lasted at least a week, the firm said. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rio Tinto, Hydro Tasmania agree to 12-month power deal

05/11/25

Rio Tinto, Hydro Tasmania agree to 12-month power deal

Sydney, 5 November (Argus) — UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto and Australian state-owned utility Hydro Tasmania have agreed to a 12-month electricity deal to support production at the 190,000 t/yr Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania. The in-principle deal will ensure continued safe and stable production as negotiations continue with Hydro Tasmania and the Tasmanian government towards a decade-long agreement, a Rio Tinto spokesperson told Argus on 5 November. Rio Tinto's deal with Hydro Tasmania provides Bell Bay Aluminium with an extra year of exceptionally affordable power, Tasmania's premier Jeremy Rockliff said. The specifics of the agreement remain private. The UK-Australian producer's current electricity contract with Hydro Tasmania will expire in late December . The two companies have been locked in talks over a long-term power deal for 18 months, Bell Bay Aluminium general manager Richard Curtis told staff on 8 October. They have not been able to agree on suitable terms, creating significant risks for the smelter, Curtis added. Tasmanian spot electricity prices averaged A$109.26/MWh ($70.70/MWh) over the July 2024-June 2025 financial year, up from A$69.07/MWh a year earlier and just A$37.16/MWh a decade earlier, data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) show. Tasmania's government has been supportive of Rio Tinto. But the price gap between what Hydro Tasmania is offering and what the smelter needs is too wide for it to cover alone, the state's energy minister Nick Duigan said on 9 October. The Tasmanian government repeated its call for Australian federal support for Bell Bay Aluminium on 5 November. In October, it asked federal officials to confirm the plant's eligibility for Australia's A$2bn low-emissions aluminium production credit scheme, which will offer tax incentives to producers from 2028-29. Bell Bay Aluminium mostly relies on hydroelectric power and could be eligible for production credits. But Australia's government has not finalised the scheme's design yet. Rio Tinto's year-long deal with Hydro Tasmania allows time for the outcome of the Australian government's credit scheme to be known, a company spokesperson told Argus today. Rio Tinto is also facing electricity cost pressures at its 600,000 t/yr Tomago aluminium smelter in New South Wales (NSW). The company may need to close the plant at the end of 2028 over high energy costs, but has not made a decision about its future, Rio Tinto said on 28 October. Spot electricity price levels in NSW are even higher than those in Tasmania. They averaged A$128.16/MWh in 2024-25, up from A$101.57 a year earlier and A$35.18/MWh a decade earlier, AEMO data show. The Australian federal and NSW state government have been in talks with Rio Tinto about energy cost support since June. They have not been able to reach an agreement, Australia's minister for industry and innovation Tim Ayres said at a press conference on 28 October. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil may expand ethanol, RNG usage by 2040: Study

04/11/25

Brazil may expand ethanol, RNG usage by 2040: Study

Sao Paulo, 4 November (Argus) — Brazil may increase its demand for ethanol and biomethane (RNG) by 2040 thanks to increasing decarbonization targets in the transport sectors, according to a study by Brazil-based LCA consulting Brazil's ethanol demand may more than double to 52.2bn l (900,980 b/d) by 2040, driven by larger export flows and increasing share in other biofuels production, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and low-emission marine fuels, the study, which was requested by low-carbon mobility institute MBC Brasil, said. LCA also projects that both aviation and maritime transport ethanol demand in 2040 could consume the equivalent of up to 80pc of 2025 ethanol consumption in motor fuels, which includes a 30pc mandate blend into gasoline (E30). LCA also projects that the aviation and maritime transport sectors could account for up to 80pc of this year's ethanol consumption. Sugarcane crop yields will double in the next 15 years — driving sugarcane-based ethanol output — while corn-based ethanol production may more than triple to 25bn l by 2040, LCA said. Ethanol can be used either for SAF's alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) production route and as an alternative for methanol to fuel vessels. As for biomethane, the waste-based biofuel may replace up to 70pc of diesel in the heavy vehicle transport segment by 2040, with 120mn m³/d. Brazil's mines and energy ministry recently submitted a 238,500 m³/d target for its first-ever biomethane mandate in 2026. Gas producers and importers will have to blend biomethane into natural gas to comply with a target to reduce greenhouse gases by 0.25pc/yr. But the study considered a 1pc mandate blend in the following years to estimate a demand of 8.5mn m³/d of biomethane by 2034, excluding the voluntary market. Brazil's diesel-fueled trucks would still represent 85pc of the national heavy vehicles fleet, regarding its increasing biodiesel mandate blend, while biomethane and battery electric vehicles would add up to 15pc by 2040, according to the study. Electric fleets will require R20.7bn-24.9bn ($3.8bn-4.6bn) in infrastructure investments to reach an estimated increase of 807,000 electric recharging stations by 2040. Brazilian public policies should include selective taxes for lower-emission vehicles and biofuels to accomplish its climate targets in both energy and transport sectors, MBC and LCA said. Another solution would be to expand markets for national biofuels. That can be done with deals such as the Mercosur-EU agreement and bilateral agreements with Mexico . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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CCS to be cost neutral for new gas stations: UK

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Prices rise in French biomethane RGGO auction

Brazil environment minister defends mitigation

Brazil environment minister defends mitigation

Metdesk forecasts a cold end of November in NW Europe

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Rio Tinto, Hydro Tasmania agree to 12-month power deal

Rio Tinto, Hydro Tasmania agree to 12-month power deal

Brazil may expand ethanol, RNG usage by 2040: Study

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