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Latest Market News

SE Asia typhoons likely to hit fertilizer demand

  • Spanish Market: Fertilizers
  • 04/11/20

Several typhoons made landfall in the Philippines and Vietnam in October and November, causing severe damage to the agricultural sector that will likely cut fertilizer demand in the region.

Typhoon Molave hit the Philippines on 26 October, followed by Typhoon Goni on 1 November. Molave resulted in losses in the agricultural and fisheries sectors that amounted to 705.87mn Philippine peso ($14.5mn). Around 20,000 hectares of agricultural area in Ilocos, Calabarzon, Bicol, Western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula were affected. Approximately 25,000 farmers who grow rice, corn, and other high-value crops suffered losses, according to information released by the Philippine Department of Agriculture. Fertilizer demand is likely take a hit in the short term with the damage in agricultural area and loss of income by farmers.

Typhoon Molave is the latest in a series of typhoons to hit Vietnam in October, causing heavy rainfall and serious flooding in the central region. The typhoon damaged 52,600 hectares of crops and inflicted economic damage of around 10 trillion dong ($430mn), Vietnam's Disaster Management Authority said. Fertilizer demand has come to a standstill in the region, according to local market participants, as farmers are unable to work until the floods subside. Typhoon Goni is heading towards Vietnam after moving across the Philippines and is expected to wreck further damage to Vietnam this week.

The series of typhoons that has brought extremely heavy rainfall to the southeast Asian region is likely a consequence of La Niña, a weather event where the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean takes place and effects changes on the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall.

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization states that La Niña has developed and is likely to last until 2021, bringing above-average rainfall to southeast Asia. Local market participants are optimistic that the forecast of higher rainfall next year will boost agricultural activity and support fertilizer demand, after most parts of southeast Asia faced drought-like conditions which has affected the agricultural sector since 2019.

By Huijun Yao

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23/12/25

Viewpoint: Expanding US ammonia output weighs on prices

Viewpoint: Expanding US ammonia output weighs on prices

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Fresh ammonia production in the US Gulf coast will support domestic demand during the spring and could impact global pricing, with new output likely creating a surplus during the first quarter of 2026. In Texas City, Texas, the 1.2mn metric tonne (t)/yr Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) plant began increasing production in November and loaded a cargo, setting soft expectations that the facility will be ready for commercial operations in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Woodside Energy's 1.1mn t/yr facility in Beaumont, Texas, is expected to ramp up output before the end of 2025 and begin commercial output in early 2026. The supply expansion could keep domestic prices in check, despite historically elevated corn acreage expectations for spring 2026 and the continued outage at Canada-based fertilizer producer Nutrien's Trinidad plant. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast of 95mn acres of corn to be planted this spring was on the high end of market expectations, which will support domestic nitrogen fertilizer use. That is down by about 5pc from 2025/2026 corn acreage, which the USDA estimated at 98.7mn acres, but up from 91.5mn acres in 2024/2025. The potential for expanding output has already begun to apply pressure on ammonia prices. The December Tampa settlement was unchanged from November at $650/t cfr Tampa, marking the end of five consecutive monthly increases since the June settlement. Despite no formal update from Nutrien regarding output from its 2.2mn t/yr facility in Trinidad, ammonia markets west of the Suez Canal are already facing pressure from a lull in demand from importers. In addition to new production coming online, there are concerns in the market that the new European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could erode US export viability in the near-term. The European Commission revised US producers' default emissions value in early December, raising the value from 2t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) to 3.41t CO2e due to two inland plants utilizing petroleum coke as a feedstock rather than natural gas. The increased base CO2e value could make importers hesitant to accept US ammonia in the near-term. But with revisions and possible delays to the implementation of CBAM regulations, the overall impact to US ammonia exports remains unclear. Producers in the US Gulf coast have exported more than 1.1mn t so far in 2025, according to Argus data, with that total expected to increase in 2026 with the new capacity coming online. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Amsul to steer Brazil’s N imports in 2026

19/12/25
19/12/25

Viewpoint: Amsul to steer Brazil’s N imports in 2026

London, 19 December (Argus) — Ammonium sulphate imports will continue to match urea imports in Brazil next year, as high urea prices and increased availability of amsul have been steadily leading farmers away from the former and towards the latter. Brazil's urea imports have historically been 2mn-3mn t/yr higher than its amsul imports, but urea's lead has eroded as amsul has become more affordable for farmers. Amsul is also more easily available and has less volatile pricing. Brazil's amsul imports almost tripled over 2018-24, rising to more than 6mn t/yr, while urea imports increased by almost 2mn t/yr to around 8mn t/yr over the same period. Argus- assessed amsul prices averaged $178/t cfr over August-November, which is when Brazil does its lion's share of its amsul buying, in line with the same period last year. Amsul prices averaged $244/t cfr over August-November 2020-24. Brazil imported nearly equal volumes of urea and amsul in January-November this year, at around 6.7mn t of each product, trade data show. Going into 2026, Brazil will maintain its position as the only market capable of absorbing leftover amsul in the market, but Chinese output will probably fall next year, which could compensate for some Chinese supplies being redirected to Brazil and away from other regions. Mexico re-imposed an $181/t import duty on Chinese amsul on 25 November. The onset of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism from 1 January may keep European buyers away from Chinese imports, at least in the first quarter. Depending on the specifics of the regulation, some Chinese amsul producers may be rendered uncompetitive in the European market. Meanwhile, the Chinese caprolactam-grade amsul industry is likely to adopt a more "self-disciplined" strategy next year, keeping operating rates below 80pc and being more cautious to commit to contracts of affreightment. Most compacted amsul shipments from China to Brazil are covered by contracts of affreightment, which can lead to a build-up of unsold amsul in Brazil during the peak season, which may pressure equivalent urea purchases or offers. Buyers usually expect the price per nitrogen unit to be lower in amsul than urea, as amsul requires additional logistical and operational costs to bring the fertilizer to the fields and to apply. Twice the volume of amsul is required compared with urea for an equivalent amount of nitrogen. Affordability has been a key concern globally this year, with record highs for urea prices. Brazil is no exception, with the Argus nitrogen affordability index for Brazil averaging 0.87 over January-November, compared with 1.05 in the past four years. The lower the index, the worse fertilizer affordability is for farmers against their crop sales, making lower-cost nitrogen sources such as amsul more attractive. Weather conditions also affect urea-amsul substitution. Amsul is less volatile than urea, with the latter losing its nitrogen content easily during heatwaves or period of heavy rainfall, reducing the amount of nutrient available for the crop. Amsul can be stored more easily for long periods in warehouses compared with urea, which is more sensitive to heat. Availability and pricing are important considerations but there are a few barriers to amsul increasing its market share against urea. Corn is the main crop that can substitute urea with amsul. But falling corn prices are discouraging farmers from investing in the crop. Using more amsul over a long period can change the acid-to-alkaline balance of the soil, hampering yields, market participants said. The extent to which amsul can be successfully substituted depends on the region, the soil specifications in each field and which other fertilizers are being combined with it in NPK blends. Brazil can successfully swap amsul for urea as a raw material for most blends, but not those with single super phosphate, as the combined sulphur content would be too high. The availability of suitable trucks has also been a concern this year, preventing inland amsul transport. Record grain exports will continue to compete with fertilizer imports for trucks at Brazilian ports in 2026, meaning urea will be easier to transport as half as much is needed compared with amsul. Lastly, Brazil's fertilizer storage capacity is small and fertilizers compete with agricultural products for warehouse space, preventing large volumes being imported. By Upasruti Biswas, Gisele Augusto and Bruno Castro Brazil's amsul vs. urea imports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn

19/12/25
19/12/25

La Nina may cut Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 winter corn crop may face slight losses following the La Nina climate phenomenon, which delayed soybean planting. Farmers plant soybeans and winter corn in the same area, so delays in the oilseed planting could push back grain sowing. Areas sown outside the official planting window for the 2025-26 corn crop are subject to adverse weather conditions and risk reaching their reproductive stages of grain filling and flowering, which are more sensitive to water stress, at the height of winter in Brazil, when the weather is dry. The deadline for concluding soybean sowing in the center-west — which encompasses Goias, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul states — was 10-25 October for winter corn to be sown and developed with low climatic risk. The closing period for a winter corn crop with medium climatic risk was 21 October-5 November, according to market participants. Irregular weather at the start of the 2025-26 soybean planting caused a delay in some regions. Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states finalized sowing in the weeks ended 5 December and 13 December, respectively. Planting in Goias state reached 97pc completion by 13 December. If corn planting is significantly delayed, farmers may also reduce the technology for planting. Planting outside the ideal window can harm productivity and, hence, the profitability of the crop. Prices of inputs needed for grain cultivation are higher this season, which can demotivate farmers to invest amid uncertain output. Production costs for Mato Grosso's 2025-26 winter corn crop rose from the previous one, with fertilizer costs estimated at R1,418/hectare ($256.50/ha) from R1,342/ha a year prior, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. But current estimates have yet to reflect this scenario. National supply company Conab kept its third estimates, released in December, mostly stable from the first outlook for the season published in October. Brazil is expected to produce 110.5mn metric tonnes (t) of corn in the second crop, 2.4pc less than the previous cycle's 113.2mn t. The drop reflects the expected 6pc decrease in yields to 6,105 kg/ha from 6,496 kg/ha. This may come despite the nearly 4pc increase in planted area to 18.1mn ha (181,000km²). Corn prices are expected to remain stable in the coming months, according to Investment bank Itau BBA forecasts. The 2024-25 corn season — considering the first, second and third crops — increased by nearly 21pc, or 24.2mn t, but high domestic demand helped sustain prices. Total 2025-26 corn output may drop by 1.5pc, or 2.2mn t, but it is expected that prices may be firm due to the competition between domestic and export markets. La Nina effects La Nina provoked irregular rainfall in October-November and consequently delayed the 2025-26 soybean planting window. The La Nina phenomenon is an abnormal cooling of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. The consequence of this phenomenon in Brazil is a delay in the start of regular rainfall, reducing volumes in the south and increasing humidity in the north and northeast. Although classified as low intensity and short duration, with a peak between November-December, this year's La Nina has been altering rainfall patterns in Brazil and is expected to last until early 2026. The trend is that the country will resume its usual climate patterns as of February. 2025-26 soy crop should maintain record But Brazil is still on track to produce a record amount of oilseed despite delays to the 2025-26 soybean planting. Although irregular rainfall at the beginning of the season delayed planting in major producing states, the return of regular rainfall should compensate losses caused by a possible drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul state. Even with Conab's third estimate still forecasting a record harvest of 177.1mn t, 3.3pc above the the 2024-25 cycle, the forecast is lower than the 177.6mn t in Conab's first projection. The drop is a result of lower estimates for nationally planted area, which fell to 48.9mn ha in the third estimate from 49.1mn ha in the first. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

18/12/25
18/12/25

Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

Amsterdam, 18 December (Argus) — Indian urea sales to end-users could reach close to 6mn t this month, which would set a fresh record for offtake in any month. It has been a strong start to sales so far in December, in what typically marks the peak consumption month for the winter rabi season. Domestic urea production is relatively stable at the equivalent of 2.6mn t/month, latest provisional data indicate. Urea sales were 5.2mn t in December 2024. The highest amount sold in any month on record was 5.4mn t in July this year . The country's urea stocks were around 6.3mn t in mid-December, down from 7.1mn t at the start of the month , the data show. The strong sales figures this month are likely to be the key driver behind Indian importer and supplier NFL's earlier-than-expected tender issuance on Tuesday , closing on 2 January and seeking 1.5mn t of urea for shipment up to 20 February. India is typically the largest urea importer, and its regular state-backed tenders are closely watched in the international urea market. The country has bought 9.23mn t of urea this calendar year through tenders. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

17/12/25
17/12/25

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

London, 17 December (Argus) — CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values Preliminary documents from the European Commission released today confirm details for the ammonia free allocations benchmark and country-specific default values in the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The documents outline that the ammonia free allocations benchmark is being revised lower to 1.522t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down from 1.57t, in line with leaked documentation seen last week . This will be subject to a 2.5pc reduction in 2026, lowering it to 1.484t. The documents are likely to be made official in 2026. The preliminary documents also confirm that the default emissions value for US ammonia is being revised to 3.44t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2026, with most other key supply regions to Europe in line with previous estimates. Algeria is valued at 2.10t CO2e in 2026, Trinidad is higher at 2.44t CO2e, and Egypt is 2.07t CO2e. The default emissions values apply if there are no verified emissions data available for the imported product. The default value for US anhydrous ammonia has increased because the production route for US ammonia has changed from natural gas to petroleum coke, which has resulted in the steep rise to the emissions value. The commission has outlined a 1pc mark-up for all country default values in 2026. Theoretical default costs range up to $196/t for ammonia supplied from the US into Europe, with Trinidad supply at $96/t, Algeria valued at $62/t, and Egypt at $59/t. This is based on the prompt emissions trading system (ETS) price of $100.35/t on 16 December. The Argus Fertilizer CBAM calculator can be accessed here . By Ruth Sharpe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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