Cuba weighs odds of US thaw against Venezuela ties

Cuba is hoping the impending political shift in Washington will lead the US to ease its longstanding economic embargo, but any new rapprochement would likely come at the price of the island's close ties to Venezuela.

Cuba was among many countries that swiftly congratulated Joe Biden for his victory in the 3 November US elections in spite of incumbent president Donald Trump's refusal to concede. Russia, China and Turkey are still holding off.

In recognizing the "new course" chosen by the US electorate, Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel signaled an openness to "the possibility of a constructive bilateral relationship that is respectful of differences."

One Caribbean diplomat in Havana told Argus that Cuban officials felt "some relief" that the Trump era was giving way to a "more flexible" administration.

President-elect Biden served as vice president in 2008-16 under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama who spearheaded a short-lived thaw in relations with Cuba. During the presidential campaign in October, Biden signaled a willingness to resume that overture.

"The (Trump) administration's approach is not working. Cuba is no closer to democracy than it was four years ago," he said. Biden has expressed support for diplomacy over "regime change".

The US embargo on Cuba is a Cold War relic dating back to the early 1960s. After a 1990s "special period" of malaise that followed the collapse of its Soviet patron, Havana moved into Venezuela's orbit under late president Hugo Chavez, an acolyte of Cuba's late revolutionary leader Fidel Castro. In a bilateral deal signed in 2000, Venezuela began supplying oil to Cuba in exchange for the deployment of Cuban experts in healthcare, security, sports and other areas. The opaque arrangement has endured for two decades in spite of the steep decline in Venezuela's oil production under Chavez's successor, Nicolas Maduro.

One of the recent drivers of the energy ties is the escape valve that the island provides for Venezuela's state-owned PdV when oil storage fills up at home, because the US sanctions have impeded exports.

Under the Trump administration, the US levied financial and oil sanctions in a failed effort to depose Maduro in favor of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Over the past year, the US targeted tankers and shipping companies to try to cut off Venezuela's oil supplies to Cuba, with little direct impact.

Siege narrative

For Havana and Caracas, the sanctions drive a common political narrative that blames the US for prolonged hardship, manifested by severe shortages of fuel for transportation, agriculture and power generation. In an unusually detailed 22 October assessment, the Cuban government denounced Trump's more aggressive sanctions for blocking access to critical spare parts, worsening a fuel shortage and interrupting the island's offshore oil exploration campaign.

Both impoverished countries rely heavily on financial remittances from expatriates and their descendants, particularly in the US state of Florida where many of them voted for Trump.

The campaign of the outgoing Republican president appealed to this conservative subset of Latino voters with anti-socialist messaging that resonated with their past experiences of repression and exile, distorting the moderate slant of Biden's Democratic platform that includes temporary asylum for Venezuelan immigrants that Trump has rejected.

There is a realization across the region that any solution to Venezuela's impasse would have to include economic incentives for Cuba and possibly a mediating role similar to its participation in Colombia's 2016 peace deal.

But coupled with the priority of tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, the Florida-focused domestic political dynamic is likely to inhibit Biden from quickly reopening diplomatic channels to Havana. The Venezuela sanctions framework will probably remain in place as well. But a Biden administration would show more openness toward Venezuela and Cuba on humanitarian grounds, with fewer sticks and more carrots to free political prisoners and introduce democratic reforms.

The Trump administration's controversial shutdown of diesel swaps for Venezuela, for instance, could be lifted, even as a path for negotiations is reopened in line with EU-led efforts. For Cuba, some travel and financial restrictions could be eased.

By Patricia Garip and Canute James