Iron ore lump premiums soar on winter demand

Spanish Market: Metals
18/01/21

Seaborne iron ore lump premiums have surged by 81pc this year and more than tripled from November levels on strong demand from rising met coke costs, limited pellet supply and sintering restrictions.

The Argus 62pc iron ore lump premium rose to its highest level since July 2019 at 35.9¢/dry metric tonnes unit (dmtu) cfr Qingdao on 14 January, up from 18¢/dmtu on 4 January and 6.8-8.1¢/dmtu in November. The premium is the extra cost for every 1pc Fe in lump over the underlying ICX 62pc fines index.

Lump on an outright basis priced at $192.50/dmt over the ICX at $172.30/dmt cfr Qingdao on 15 January.

The increase accelerated last week on a Newman Blend Lump (NBL) trade at 35.5¢/dmtu fob over a February 62pc fines index on the Globalore platform on 13 January.

Sintering restrictions in the winter typically increase demand for lump and pellet, which do not require sintering before use in the blast furnace.

Lump supply is expected to remain tight as Australian mining firms Rio Tinto and BHP ship more lump to JKT (Japan-South Korea-Taiwan), and as recovering steel demand in Europe and US has diverted pellet and pellet feed supply. Total stockpiles of PB lump and NBL at six northern China ports to their lowest level since July 2019 at 4.13mn t last week, market participants said.

Fourteen rounds of domestic price hikes for met coke have further added demand for pellet and lump.

"High grade lumps are more cost-effective [with met coke] and popular while low grade lumps fail to attract mills' interest," a Shandong mill buyer said.

Additional transportation curbs to slow the spread of Covid-19 in Hebei have further shored up demand for lump. Mills in Shanxi and Wu'an that used to take iron ore from Tianjin and Tangshan turned to Shandong ports for active procurement. "The transportation curbs have restrained lump liquidity in Hebei, while lumps transactions in Shandong kept booming," a Shandong trader said.

Seaborne premiums have followed those in portside trade, which have maintained a premium to fines prices on a ¢/dmtu since early December and showed significant advances in January, rising to 46.52¢/dmtu on 14 January. PBL was heard traded at 1,400 yuan/wet metric tonnes (wmt) at Qingdao port on 13 January, lifting the price spread between Pilbara Blend Fines and PB lump to Yn265/wmt, up by 77pc from Yn150/wmt at the beginning of January.

"We see more price upside for lump premiums in the near future and will easily hit 40¢/dmt to catch up with the portside lump premiums," a Beijing trader said.

Some market participants said that squeezed steel margins may limit the upside for lump premiums. "Currently, rebar and billet are unprofitable. HRC (hot-rolled coil) margins have narrowed as well," a north China mill iron ore buyer said. "Lump demand will be firm in the short term, but the continued pressure on profits might force steel mills to turn to medium and low grades."

By Chris Newman and China staff

Lump premiums

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19/12/25

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general office (CGR) will audit "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco agreement to form a lithium production joint venture, following complaints by some of the country's parliamentarians and indigenous communities, further delaying the deal. CGR on 18 December said its scope is limited to verifying whether government actions follow the law and to audit public spending. The agency said that it is forbidden from judging whether a policy or administrative decision is a good idea or convenient. CGR does not have the power to veto the deal, because the main legal challenges to the agreement are either in court, where the watchdog has been ordered not to comment, have already been resolved by judges, or involve policy judgments that Chilean law does not allow CGR to review. As a result, its role is limited to reviewing the agreement for potential irregularities. It can flag legal inconsistencies and delay the deal's effective date until any identified issues are rectified. CGR's audit will focus on the state-owned company Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. The audit will also examine claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. Additionally, CGR will review whether the companies' directors acted lawfully and examine Chile's economic development agency Corfo's approval of the contracts that underpin the partnership. These include Corfo's contracts with SQM, which allow lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flats through December 31, 2030, and its contracts with Codelco's lithium subsidiary Minera Tarar, which enables operations at the site from 2031 to 2060. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing Codelco to partner with a private company — SQM, in this case — to mine lithium in that area under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Although the SQM-Codelco agreement , which was struck in May 2024 and would extend SQM's authorization to continue extracting lithium in the Atacama salt flats from January 2031 to 31 December 2060, does not have a hard deadline to close, it is still running against the clock. If the deal is not sealed by 31 December 2025, a contract clause in the partnership agreement allows any party to void the deal if they so choose. If this deadline is not met, Chile would also reduce SQM's lithium extraction quota by 300,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent for the remaining period until 31 December 2030, when the company's current mining permit ends. The joint-venture also faces opposition from Chile's newly elected president Jose Antonio Kast . The far-right politician said he would honor the deal if it is sealed before he takes office, but risk of an overturn would grow if that condition is not met before he is sworn in on 11 March 2026. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

19/12/25

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

London, 19 December (Argus) — The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power. Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026. The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year. But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context. The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output. Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs. "The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging." Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper. "I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels. "I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck." By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

19/12/25

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

18/12/25

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, according to the government's first monthly report following a federal shutdown that led to no data reported for October. The consumer price index (CPI) in November rose by 2.7pc from a year earlier, the smallest gain since July and down from 3pc in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday. The BLS did not collect survey data for October due to a lapse in appropriations because of the 43-day federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November. President Donald Trump sacked the BLS director in August after labor market revisions revealed unexpected job losses in prior months. "November's CPI data have to be treated cautiously, given that CPI data collection resumed only on the 14th after the end of the shutdown," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report. CME's FedWatch tool after the report showed a 26.6pc chance the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate in January, up from 24.4pc on Wednesday. The Fed last week cut its target rate by a quarter point, the third such reduction this year, and penciled in only one such cut next year and in 2027. So called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, slowed to a 2.6pc annual pace in November from 3pc in September. Services less energy services, a measure of core services inflation, rose by 3pc in November compared with a 3.5pc gain in September. The energy index rose by 4.2pc on the year, up from a 2.8pc gain in September, BLS said. The gasoline index rose by an annual 0.9pc in November compared with a 0.5pc decline in September. The fuel oil index rose by 11.3pc in November, surging from a 4.1pc gain in September, and the energy services index rose by 7.4pc in November, accelerating from a 6.4pc gain in September. The shelter index rose by 3pc in November, slowing from 3.6pc in September New vehicles rose by 0.6pc in November while used vehicles rose by 3.6pc. The food index rose on the year by 2.6pc in November following a 3.1pc gain in September. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by 4.7pc in November. Medical care services rose by 3.3pc in November after a 3.9pc gain in September. Household furnishings and decorations, which are affected by import tariffs, rose by 4.6pc after a 4.1pc gain in September. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iron ore lump premiums soar on winter demand

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