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Signs of demand recovery emerge for aerospace metals

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 15/02/21

Prices for several high-temperature minor metals have risen lately on early signs of demand returning, despite air travel restrictions weighing on the global aerospace industry.

Chinese buyers in particular have been been dipping into the titanium market, with a spike in Chinese demand for TG100 grade metal in early February. Chinese buyers have agreed contracts for several thousand tonnes of aerospace grade TG100 titanium sponge since the beginning of the year from several producers, a producer said.

Argus' assessment for 99.7pc grade titanium sponge in China rose to Yn61,000-67,000/t ex-works on 15 February, up from a four-year low of Yn48,000-55,000/t on 16 July 2020, as China's economy began to recover from Covid-19 lockdowns. China's domestic air traffic had fully bounced back to 2019 levels by September. But European long-term contract prices for TG100 grade sponge are unchanged at $7.20-8.20/kg despite the increased Chinese appetite amid subdued demand elsewhere.

China and its domestic aircraft producer COMAC aim to reduce their reliance on the western hemisphere for their commercial aerospace market, which has led to increased stockpiling of sponge and other critical metals within the country, in part owing to concerns that domestic production may not be sufficient to support demand. China's State Reserve Bank (SRB) recently entered the market for significant quantities of cobalt metal, which is used in aerospace and batteries.

But the demand revival is not isolated to only China. One trader received enquiries for 100kg of rhenium pellets from a US superalloy producer for spot delivery. And a niobium producer noted that superalloy consumers are enquiring for spot material as the whole supply chain may soon need to replenish.

Medical, automotive demand rises

High-temperature metals have received a further demand boost from non-aerospace markets in recent weeks, in particular medical and automotive.

Prices for min 99pc aluminothermic chromium metal rose to $6,650-7,200/t duty paid Rotterdam from $6,400-6,800/t on 9 February on rising demand from the automotive sector in the EU and US. One producer said it had seen a rise in enquiries from steel producers.

And although the cobalt metal's recent rally was caused by battery demand, with alloy grade metal prices rising to $22.50-23/lb on 11 February from $15.60-16.20/lb at the start of the year, European cobalt traders have also been approached by US superalloy producers this month.

That said, the current increase in buying interest could be short-lived, with US superalloy producer ATI Metals warning that it expects demand for medical alloys to drop in the first quarter because of continued Covid-related disruptions to healthcare systems.

Demand for ATI's super-alloys in military applications rose by 18pc in the fourth quarter of 2020, the company recently confirmed, anticipating that demand will remain strong for the time being owing in large part to naval and military aerospace projects.

The US domestic aerospace market could recover in a similar way to China's as vaccines are rolled out. Boeing, the largest US aerospace manufacturer, expects commercial markets to recover in three phases, the first of those being large domestic markets such as China, India and the US.


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