US oil producers start storm impact tally: Update
Adds Pioneer production impact.
First quarter oil and natural gas production will take a noticeable hit from the winter storm that plunged much of Texas into icy darkness last week, according to companies reporting earnings this week.
Occidental Petroleum said it expects the storm to cut its first quarter production from the Permian basin by about 25,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d). That would put the company's expected Permian output in the 450,000-460,000 boe/d range — but well above the 382,000 boe/d it produced in the fourth quarter.
Independent oil producer Diamondback Energy said last week's extreme cold will reduce its first quarter oil output by the equivalent for 4-5 days of production, or about 878,500 bl.
"Production has nearly returned to pre-storm levels as of today, and we expect to make up a majority of the lost production throughout the year, but will not be able to make it all up in the first quarter," Diamondback said during an earnings call today.
Pioneer Natural resources, another Permian-focused producer, expects the storms to cut first quarter production by 55,000 boe/d, bringing it to a range of 444,000-470,000 boe/d.
Laredo Petroleum, a small producer operating in the Permian said the storm will cut its full year output by about 8,000 boe/d, to a range of 80,000-85,000 boe/d.
"Multiple challenges impeded our production operations over this 12-day time frame, including lack of fuel gas and electricity, shuttered takeaway and processing capacity, limited access to well sites and facilities and inoperable vapor recovery units, which are necessary for environmental compliance," said Loredo chief operating officer Tommye Chandler.
Producer Cimarex Energy said it expected first quarter production to take a 5-7pc hit from the storm in the Permian and midcontinent, bringing output to average 205,000-225,000 boe/d.
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips said last week their Texas operations were also largely shut-in because of the storm.
Peak output cut estimates vary
Market sources have put the peak of the production outages last week at between 2mn-3mn b/d, but analysts at Simmons & Co put the figure as high as 4mn b/d at the height of the crisis.
Goldman Sachs estimates the storms will cut February's total production rate by about 700,000 b/d, "… with relatively quick recovery based on past disruptions." Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates storm-related shut-ins in the Permian basin will total about 660,000 b/d in February and another 160,000 b/d in March.
The storm came just as the level of activity in onshore US oil fields was showing signs of growth. Before last week the number of hydraulic fracturing crews at work climbed by nearly 15pc over the prior month, from between 160-165 crews to a 185-190 crew range, notes Tudor Pickering Holt, with Permian basin activity leading the way.
"We are now at active frac fleet levels we did not expect to broach until April/May and we are firmly in the range that should be sufficient to hold US onshore crude oil production flat y/y on an exit-to-exit basis," the investment bank's researchers said in a note this week.
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Chevron’s oily DJ basin buy boosts gas output
Chevron’s oily DJ basin buy boosts gas output
New York, 3 May (Argus) — Chevron's US natural gas production has surged in recent quarters due to its crude-focused acquisition of Denver-based PDC Energy last August, increasing the oil major's exposure to the US gas market months after that market entered an extended price slump. Chevron's US gas production in the first quarter was 2.7 Bcf/d (76mn m3/d), up by 53pc from the year-earlier quarter and the highest since at least 2021, according to company production data. Chevron's total US output rose by 35pc year-over-year to 1.57 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), while US crude output increased by 21pc to 779,000 b/d. The acreage Chevron picked up last year in the DJ basin of northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming has higher gas-oil ratios than the rest of its US portfolio. Chevron mostly focuses US production in the crude-rich Permian basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Since Chevron closed its acquisition of PDC on 7 August, US gas prices have mostly languished in loss-making territory. Prompt-month Nymex gas settlements at the US benchmark Henry Hub from 7 August 2023 to 2 May 2024 averaged $2.46/mmBtu, down from an average of $4.999/mmBtu in the year-earlier period. In a May 2023 conference call over Chevron's acquisition of PDC, chief executive Mike Wirth expressed optimism for the long-run outlook for natural gas, despite the more immediately dim outlook. "There's going to be stronger global demand for gas growth than there will be for oil over the next decade and beyond as the world looks to decarbonize," Wirth said. Despite lower US gas prices, Chevron has captured $600mn in cost savings from the PDC acquisition between capital and operational expenditures, the company told Argus . Crude prices have also been more resilient. Chevron's profit in the first quarter was $5.5bn, down from $6.6bn in the year-earlier quarter, partly due to lower gas prices. US gas prices have been lower this year as unseasonably warm winter weather and resilient production have created an oversupplied US gas market. A government report Thursday showed US gas inventories up by 35pc from the five-year average. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US job growth nearly halved in April: Update
US job growth nearly halved in April: Update
Adds services PMI in first, fifth paragraphs, factory PMI reference in sixth paragraph. Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth slowed, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. A separate survey showed the services sector contracted last month. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Services weakness Another report today showed the biggest segment of the economy contracted last month. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in April from 51.4 in March, ending 15 months of expansion. The services PMI employment index fell to 45.9, the fourth contraction in five months, in today's report. Readings below 50 signal contraction. On 1 May, ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April, after one month of growth following 16 months of contraction. In today's employment report from the Labor Department, average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan
Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan
London, 3 May (Argus) — Opec+ member Kazakhstan has submitted a plan to Opec detailing how it intends to compensate for producing above its crude production target in the first four months of the year. Kazakhstan and Iraq — which has also submitted a compensation plan — are the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers and a key reason why the group exceeded its overall production in the first three months of the year . Kazakhstan's energy ministry said it produced above its target by 129,000 b/d in January, 128,000 b/d in February, and 131,000 b/d in March, according to secondary source estimates. Opec secondary sources, of which Argus is one, have yet to formally submit their production estimates for April, but Kazakhstan said it is factoring preliminarily overproduction of 100,000 b/d for April. The ministry said it kept oil production high because of high winter demand for natural gas — much of its gas production is associated and is produced alongside its oil. Kazakhstan said it would start its compensation plan in May with an initial cut of 18,000 b/d below its official target of 1.468mn b/d. It would then stick to its target in June and July before implementing a cut of 131,000 b/d in August, none in September, 299,000 b/d in October, 40,000 b/d in November and zero in December. The cuts have been designed to coincide with scheduled maintenance at the country's key oil fields of Kashagan and Tengiz, the ministry said. Kazakhstan would have to reduce its output by 149,000 b/d in May compared with its March production of 1.599mn b/d to meet its pledge, according to Argus calculations. The compensation plan is set to be adjusted once a final figure for April is available. The plan would be further adjusted to accommodate any change in the Opec+ alliance's output policy — for which a meeting is scheduled to take place on 1 June in Vienna. Opec has been increasing pressure on members exceeding their targets. It called last month on countries that have overproduced to submit detailed compensation plans by the end of April. The Opec+ alliance has implemented a series of cuts — voluntary or collective — worth a combined 5.4mn b/d since October 2022 in a self-described bid to "support the stability and balance of the oil market". The latest round of "voluntary" output reductions by several members came into force in January and is due to run until the end of June. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iraq sets plan to compensate for excess Opec oil output
Iraq sets plan to compensate for excess Opec oil output
Dubai, 3 May (Argus) — Iraq, Opec's second-largest oil producer, has submitted a plan to the Opec secretariat outlining how it will compensate for producing above quota in the first quarter of 2024. The plan indicates that Baghdad will make compensatory cuts from May through to the end of this year, although its breakdown could be tweaked if its April production is again above quota, based on average production estimates issued by the seven Opec secondary sources, including Argus . Opec+'s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said in its 3 April meeting that members that have produced above their quotas so far this year would need to submit plans to compensate for the excess. Iraq and Kazakhstan, which Opec said has also submitted its own compensation plan, have produced the most excess excess volumes in the Opec+ group since the beginning of the year. The JMMC oversees compliance to the coalition's crude production cuts and studies market dynamics. Iraq produced 194,000 b/d above target in January, and overshot by 217,000 b/d and 193,000 b/d in February and March, respectively. To compensate for this, Baghdad plans to produce 50,000 b/d below its quota between May and September, 100,000 b/d below quota for October and November, and 152,000 b/d below its quota for December. Iraq has been working to a quota of 4mn b/d since the start of the year, including two rounds of voluntary cuts it made in April and November last year. Baghdad will submit its crude production figure for April later this week, it said. Any extra volumes produced will also be factored into the country's compensation plan. To meet obligations, Baghdad says it will cap its crude burn at 75,000 b/d and maintain refining intake to between 400,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d through to the end of this year, according to Iraq's Opec national representative Mohammed Adnan Ibrahim Al-Najjar. But Iraq has yet to decide whether it will extend a 3.3mn b/d cap on exports, in place since April , beyond the second half, as it will depend on "Opec+ agreements [in the June meeting] and [the needs of] Iraq's economy over the coming months," the oil ministry told Argus last week. When needs must With the summer season around the corner in the Mideast Gulf region, Iraq has pushed the majority of its compensation into the last three months of the year. Iraq in summer often experiences extreme heatwaves resulting in a major spike in electricity demand. Power shortages during the summer season have fuelled political unrest in Iraq in recent years. To strike a balance between its Opec+ commitments and avoid similar scenarios this year, Iraq says it will import higher levels of gas from neighbouring Iran, with Baghdad also beginning to benefit from electricity supply from Jordan through a newly-established power line which became operational at the beginning of April. Iran and Iraq finalised a five-year supply agreement at the end of March, which will see Tehran send "up to 50mn m³/d" of gas to Iraq, Iraq's electricity minister Ziad Ali Fadel said. But Iraq's persistent overproduction, which has drawn scrutiny within Opec+, might be difficult to address, especially as Iraq blames it on its inability to oversee production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in the north of the country. Most Iraqi Kurdish crude output is directed to local refineries or sold on the black market following the closure of the export pipeline that links oil fields in northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan just over a year ago. Iraq's federal oil ministry says its Kurdish counterpart has stopped providing production data, but on 3 May said it estimates Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) crude production to be between 40,000 b/d and 50,000 b/d. Meanwhile, Iraq's oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani on 2 May announced that two joint Baghdad-Erbil committees have been formed to resolve the issue of contracts between Erbil and the international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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