More travel lifts Indonesian gasoline demand potential

Spanish Market: Oil products
18/03/21

Asia-Pacific's largest gasoline buyer Indonesia is allowing its annual mass exodus to home towns this year at the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, in a potential boost for gasoline demand.

The Indonesian ministry of transportation said on 16 March that it has no authority to decide or permit the annual "mudik", as it will have to work with other ministries and the Covid-19 task force to implement strict health and tracing protocols for people travelling back home.

Indonesia's President Joko Widodo imposed a ban on the mudik last year to curb the spread of Covid-19.

Gasoline traders usually look to demand from Ramadan, which is typically a period of peak gasoline consumption because of increased in driving activity with the mudik. Ramadan will begin on 12 April and end on 12 May this year.

This should support gasoline margins, although any spike in demand has not emerged yet. But given the announcement is recent, an increase could be coming, said market participants. But a seasonal increase in demand during festive periods should still be muted moving forward, they added.

Indonesia's 2020 gasoline imports were 16pc lower from the previous year at 282,500 b/d, according to GTT customs data, because of Covid-19 movement restrictions.

Driving activity in Indonesia is also muted this year, according to mobility data from US technology firm Apple, which gives an indication of driving activity by tracking direction requests. Driving activity so far in this year's first quarter is 8.41pc below a 13 January baseline compared with an average of 2.09pc above the same baseline in the first quarter of 2020.

By Aldric Chew

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10/04/26

Nigeria a net gasoline exporter for first time in March

London, 10 April (Argus) — Nigeria was a net exporter of gasoline for the first time in March, capping a transformation in the country's position from a heavy net importer of the product to a global supplier. West Africa's largest economy received 41,000 b/d of gasoline in the month, the lowest on Kpler records. Dangote crude receipts in the month were the second highest since the 650,000 b/d refinery started operations at the end of 2023, at 565,000 b/d, suggesting healthy run rates and gasoline output, cutting reliance on foreign supply. Dangote booked just 10pc of the gasoline imported to Nigeria last month. Independent marketing firms took up recently issued import permits, allowing Dangote to funnel more of its production to export markets. Lower domestic demand may have left a greater amount of gasoline available for export in March. Local sources cited a 40pc increase in retail prices because of the US-Israel war against Iran and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, which probably weighed on consumer demand. Nigeria also appeared to be sitting on comfortable gasoline stocks going into March , market participants said. Dangote gasoline exports were 44,000 b/d in March, up from none in January-February. As the sole gasoline producer in Nigeria, Dangote loadings helped tip the balance, making the country a net gasoline exporter of 3,000 b/d in March. Dangote made forays into the east African market in March for the first time, loading a 317,000 bl gasoline cargo signalling for Mozambique. East African gasoline import demand from Dangote rose as the region scrambles for alternative supply in the absence of Mideast Gulf product. Dangote's sole gasoline export to date in April is also destined for Beira, Mozambique. Nigeria's status as a net-gasoline exporter compounds Europe's gasoline oversupply conundrum, as the west African country is on the way to becoming a competitor rather than an customer. Nigeria is probably better positioned to place gasoline into west or east Africa to cover war-related shortfalls. Some tanker fixtures of gasoline loading in Europe for delivery to east of Suez ports failed in March, probably because of elevated freight rates. It remains to be seen if Nigeria can replicate its March milestone, given the small size of its net export position. A rise in local demand, fewer gasoline import permits issued, or lower run rates at Dangote could each tip the balance back towards more familiar territory. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU could face jet fuel shortages in three weeks: ACI

10/04/26

EU could face jet fuel shortages in three weeks: ACI

London, 10 April (Argus) — EU airports could experience jet fuel shortages in the next three weeks, airports association ACI Europe has said. "If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU", the organisation said in a letter to the European Commission. The letter follows a special meeting of the commission's Oil Co-ordination Group earlier this week, which ACI attended. Around 40pc of Europe's jet fuel imports transit the strait of Hormuz, but no jet cargoes bound for Europe have passed the strait since before the war between the US, Israel and Iran broke out on 28 February. The final cargo to have done so discharged earlier this week, in the Netherlands and Denmark, from the STI Supreme . Europe has adequate jet fuel supply at present, but traders and suppliers are extremely concerned about the coming weeks, and at least one European airline said suppliers could soon declare force majeure. These market participants broadly agree the effects will materialise by May , because Europe will be unable to fully replace lost Mideast Gulf supply. The fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf has done little to alleviate these concerns. Mideast Gulf loadings are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, given high costs, the difficulty of securing insurance and the risk of continued attacks. This is in addition to major damage to regional energy infrastructure. It would also take at least four weeks for cargoes to arrive in Europe even if shipping resumes immediately. Stock levels in European countries vary, meaning some could face shortages sooner than others . In the most extreme scenario, the UK could run out of kerosine in three months, Portugal in four months and Hungary in five, Argus analysis shows, if Mideast Gulf supply cannot be replaced and if the impact spreads proportionally across importers. ACI Europe proposed measures the commission could adopt, including lifting restrictions and regulatory constraints — such as clarifying the EU Methane Emissions Regulation — collective purchasing of jet fuel, targeted refinery obligations and allowing producers to earmark part of their fuel sale premiums for financing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The organisation also called on the commission to develop EU-wide mapping, assessment and monitoring of jet fuel production and availability. European refiners are maximising jet production , Argus understands, and importing more from the US . By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Attacks shut Saudi Satorp refinery units: TotalEnergies

10/04/26

Attacks shut Saudi Satorp refinery units: TotalEnergies

Dubai, 10 April (Argus) — TotalEnergies said on Friday that one of two processing trains at the 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia was damaged in an "overnight incident" on April 7-8, prompting a precautionary shutdown of units at the site. TotalEnergies, which operates Satorp in a 37.5-62.5 venture with Saudi state-controlled Aramco, disclosed the damage a day after Riyadh said Iranian attacks had hit key energy facilities in the country including the refinery. The Saudi statement did not specify when the incident at Satorp occurred or how extensive the damage was. The details have emerged after a ceasefire between the US and Iran that should end nearly six weeks of attacks on energy facilities across the Mideast Gulf region. Elsewhere in the region, TotalEnergies said its production in Qatar, Iraq and offshore UAE had been shut or was in the process of being shut down, representing around 15pc of the company's total output. Those disrupted volumes are tied to some of the company's key partnerships in the region, including LNG and upstream ventures with state-owned QatarEnergy, Iraq's Basra Oil (BOC) and oil concessions with state-owned Adnoc in the UAE. TotalEnergies' onshore UAE production, equivalent to about 210,000 b/d net to the company, is unaffected, it said. The company said the disrupted Middle East output accounts for around 10pc of its global upstream cash flow, but said higher prices would cushion the effects of the disruptions. TotalEnergies said an $8/bl rise in Brent from its base-case assumption of $60/bl would be enough to offset the expected 2026 cash-flow loss from its Iraq, offshore UAE and Qatar assets. It also said the effect of LNG production shutdowns in Qatar on its trading business would be limited to around 2mn t in 2026, because most Qatari LNG is marketed by QatarEnergy. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Base oil prices remain elevated since ceasefire

10/04/26

Base oil prices remain elevated since ceasefire

London, 10 April (Argus) — The global base oils market is getting no respite from the ceasefire announcement in the Mideast Gulf, as logistic and feedstock issues that are constraining supply persist, market participants told Argus . The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran on 7 April has not changed global base oil market fundamentals, and even if a permanent peace deal is reached it would take a couple of months before production and trade flows resumed, participants said. Group III supplies remain stranded in the Mideast Gulf as the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and spot prices in net importing regions continue to surge. Argus -assessed Group III 4cst spot prices have increased more than twofold in the US and by 70pc in Europe since the war began in late February, to $2,406.50/t and $2,515/t respectively on 10 April. The Mideast Gulf accounts for about 20pc of global Group III output, according to Argus estimates. The region supplied 47pc of US Group III imports in 2025 and 72pc of European imports, EIA and Kpler data show. European and US term customers are on allocation and some suppliers looked at alternative means to get product out of the Middle East, including moving supplies via truck to Jeddah or Oman to be loaded on to containerships, bypassing the strait of Hormuz. But trucks are being prioritised for fuel movements, and with costs estimated at up to $1,000 per truck before loading and freight costs, spot offers would be raised by €1,000/t compared with assessed prices. No movements of this nature have been reported, and logistics costs are too high and complicated. Supply will anyway be limited from the region. Shell's 1.1mn t/yr Pearl Group III gas-to-liquid plant sustained missile damage to one of its two trains that will take a year to repair. Diesel margins over feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) reverted to a discount compared with light-grade Group I base oils when the ceasefire was announced. But the spread between the two remains minimal at $22.50/t, as assessed on 9 April. The five-year average premium that base oil carries over diesel after feedstock costs is $285/t. A higher and more sustained spread over diesel would need to happen before refineries consider increasing base oil production, participants told Argus . But supplies remain constrained as refineries undergo maintenances and some have production issues . Base oil run cuts at Asian refineries are ongoing because of feedstock supply disruptions from the Middle East, affecting Group I and Group II output. Refineries have to prioritise strategic fuels over base oil output. US suppliers are looking to move volumes there to support term customers. US refineries are also looking to building inventories for hurricane season, which typically runs from June to October. This continues to add upward pressure to prices. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump showing signs of frustration over Hormuz stasis

10/04/26

Trump showing signs of frustration over Hormuz stasis

London, 10 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is beginning to show signs of frustration over a lack of tangible progress with respect to reopening the strait of Hormuz ꟷ a key condition of the ceasefire that the US agreed with Iran earlier this week. The agreement announced on 7 April ostensibly called for an end to strikes by the US and Israel on Iran for two weeks, in return for Iran agreeing to provide safe passage for commercial vessels through the key waterway through co-ordination with the Iranian armed forces. But less than three days in, not only have transits through the strait not increased, they have actually fallen from the already low levels of the past few weeks. Less than eight vessels transited the strait on average in the two days since the ceasefire was agreed, according to Kpler data, down from more than 12 in the first week of April. This compares with more than 100 per day before the start of the war. "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!" Trump said on his Truth Social platform overnight. The slowdown has come, at least in part, due to infractions that Iran said its counterparts have made since the ceasefire was agreed. Tehran, specifically, objected to a massive bombing campaign that Israel carried out across Lebanon on 8 April, as it considered Lebanon to be part of the ceasefire agreement. Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said as much in his announcement of the ceasefire. But Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since insisted that the agreement did not include a ceasefire in Lebanon. The US has said the same. Iran's Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), cited an informed source shortly after Israel's bombing campaign on 8 April that the strait would "remain closed" until a full ceasefire was established in Lebanon. Kpler data showed just five vessels transited the strait on 8 April, down from 13 the day before. Iran also appeared to carry out strikes against several of its Arab Gulf neighbours in retaliation for the Israeli campaign, and strikes on oil infrastructure on the two islands of Lavan and Sirri, with both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reporting significant damage to key energy installations, after the ceasefire agreement. In an earlier post on Truth Social, Trump hit out at "reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz strait". Iran had "better not be, and if they are, they better stop now!" he said. Trump was referring to a system that Iran has been employing in recent weeks whereby vessels have paid Tehran a fee to transit the waterway safely ꟷ a system first revealed by Iranian parliament member Alaeddin Boroujerdi in mid-March . Hamid Hosseini, the spokesman for Iran's oil, gas and petrochemical products exporters' union, told Argus this week that the system continues, with the fee charged directly linked to the volume of oil on board. "Shipowners are being asked to pay $1 per barrel, and that can be done in the local currency, rials, or cryptocurrency, but only after the vessel has received a permit from the IRGC," Hosseini said. Iranian lawmakers are also preparing to bring a bill formalising Iran's role as the guardian and guarantor of the waterway to the parliament for a vote. But others are pushing back against the idea of Iran taking control of the strait, or setting up a toll there. "Open the strait unconditionally," said Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc on 8 April. "Iran has made clear… that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion." The European Commission, also on 8 April, said under international law, freedom of navigation must be insured, meaning "no payment or toll whatsoever". By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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More travel lifts Indonesian gasoline demand potential

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