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Latest Market News

US farm debt declines on high crop prices, federal aid

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Fertilizers
  • 09/07/21

Increased federal aid and rising crop prices helped reduce US farm debt in the first quarter of 2021.

Non-real estate farm debt fell by 10pc from the first quarter of 2020 while farm-related real estate debt slipped by 3pc on the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Farm debt, which was forecast to swell to a 61-year high this year, is being slowed with the aid of record federal assistance stemming from multiple years of trade war cash payments and Covid-19 assistance, which has coalesced with rallying product values this year. Industry debt is forecast to grow by 2pc from 2020, the slowest annual growth rate since 2012, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Direct government payments to farmers reached $46.27bn in 2020 on the back of $32bn in pandemic and emergency aid programs, helping offset declining agricultural sales and support farmer income.

Farmers used the surge of assistance to pay down debt and upgrade equipment, Stone X chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said. The amount of delinquent loans dipped during the first quarter and fell by about 25pc from the year prior, with the most acute decreases at banks concentrated in agricultural regions, according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Increasing sales and rallying product values this year are also enabling farmers to pay down debt. Corn, wheat and soybean futures surged to new highs in the first quarter of 2021, reaching levels not seen since 2014.

Farmer income is forecast to remain at a six-year high as product sales increase from a year ago in tandem with an estimated $25.3bn in government aid, according to the USDA.

New loan demand has also weakened on increased cash flow, with total agricultural loan volumes during the first quarter falling by 5.5pc from the same period in 2020 to $164.6bn, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2016, according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve. And at agricultural banks, total agricultural loans were $68.4bn, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2014.

Farm income and loan repayment rates have also shown strong increases in other agricultural districts. Loan repayment in the 10th and 8th Federal Reserve Districts reached record-high levels in the first quarter of 2021, according to Agricultural Credit Survey data dating back to 1991. Farm income in the 9th and 10th Districts are also at decade-highs.

Despite lower debt and increased federal aid, farmer sentiment continues to weaken, according to Purdue University's latest Ag Barometer. Farmers are increasingly concerned about future crop prices, the approach to biofuels that President Joe Biden's administration is taking, and inflationary concerns.

"That uncertainty has the farmer, even with these higher prices, maintaining their conservative [fiscal] nature," Suderman said.

By Sarah Tucker

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15/12/25

Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

Mosaic pauses Esterhazy potash mining after fatality

Houston, 15 December (Argus) — North American fertilizer producer Mosaic paused potash production today in Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, after a worker died in a mine collapse. According to Mosaic, a "fall of ground" incident took place at the K3 underground mine in Esterhazy, resulting in the death of one employee. No other injuries were reported. The producer's emergency response team was activated following the incident. The site is being secured and a full investigation is underway, Mosaic said. The Esterhazy site has a nameplate capacity of 7.8mn metric tonnes/yr of potash and three mines— K1, K2 and K3— with K3 completed in 2022. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

15/12/25
15/12/25

US-Belarus potash trade may soften MOP pricing outlook

London, 15 December (Argus) — Potash trade between the US and Belarus is set to be reinstated after an absence of almost four years, following the lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash on 13 December with immediate effect — a move that could soften the outlook for global MOP prices as supply options increase. The relationship between the US and Belarus had started to ease earlier this year when Belarus agreed to release 52 political detainees from its prisons in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on Belarusian flagship airline Belavia in September. This limited rapprochement generated talk among market participants of the possibility of a further lifting of US sanctions on Belarus, which could affect Belarusian potash. US sanctions on Belarusian potash , which is produced by state-owned Belaruskali and marketed by BPC, have been in place since 2021. But the announcement over the weekend has largely caught the market by surprise. The policy change could lead to a significant shift in potash trade dynamics, with implications that extend well beyond the borders of both countries. For the US, it would further diversify its potash supply chain, reducing its heavy reliance on Canadian imports and improve its negotiating position in ongoing tariff disputes with the country. For Belarus, regaining access to the US market opens up an opportunity to diversify export destinations and stabilise revenues for one its most vital commodities. Such changes could make the US a more competitive market in terms of pricing. At a global level, buyers that had previously stopped purchasing Belarusian potash will have more supply options and could use this as leverage to push down prices with their current suppliers. On the contrary, a potential reduction of Belarusian MOP to other markets in favour of the US would likely see other markets become less competitive. But it is unlikely that the market will see such developments in the near term. It will take some time for US-Belarus trade to resume as administrative and financial processes still need to be put in place, and US potash buyers will need to be incentivised to buy Belarusian MOP over Canadian tons as some still refuse to purchase Russian product. What's in it for the US? The removal of Belarusian potash sanctions enables the US to possibly further diversify its sources for potash imports, signalling that this is more of a White House priority than market participants had originally anticipated. The US has limited domestic MOP production and is heavily reliant on imports, particularly from Canada. The country imported 13.5mn t of MOP for the 2024/25 fertilizer year, with roughly 85pc of it sourced from Canada and 9pc coming from Russia, according to US Census Bureau data. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. Belarusian MOP has not touched US soil since February 2022, but in 2017-21 an average of 635,000 t/yr of Belarusian MOP was brought into the country. This policy change also comes just days after US president Donald Trump claimed he could impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, and the return of trade with Belarus may be used as leverage for the US in the current tariff war between the two countries. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 11mn-12mn t/yr of Canadian potash it needs with Belarusian product. It is also in line with Trump's strategy to secure the country's critical minerals needs. Trump included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals this year and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The importance of potash was also highlighted when the White House spared a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate — from a raft of tariffs imposed earlier this year. In the US domestic market, traders appear largely unfazed by the new development. There have been strong MOP imports this year and there are currently healthy inventories of MOP across the Corn Belt. Additional volumes from Belarus could oversupply the market, pressuring prices downwards at a time when potash is already the most affordable nutrient domestically. But it is likely to take some time for Belarus to regain market share as it is possible that some companies may self-sanction against Belarusian potash — similar to companies self-sanctioning against Russian potash — while suppliers currently find prices in the US unattractive at $305-310/st fob Nola and alternative markets such as Brazil are providing a better netback, which could deter Belarus from promptly returning to the US market. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium. Moreover, the administrative processes to facilitate the return of Belarusian trade in the US will also likely take some time to be implemented. What's in it for Belarus? Belarusian potash is one of the most important commodities for the Belarusian economy and provides the country with a major source of foreign revenue. Following sanctions, Belarusian MOP practically disappeared from the global potash market in 2022. Yet Belarus regained its footing in the international market far quicker than expected and has managed to continue selling significant volumes of potash to the global market with the help of creative paperwork and lax enforcement of the sanctions. Russia played a pivotal role in this recovery. After Belarus lost access to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda — previously the main export hub for Belarusian potash exports — from 1 February 2022, the marketer was forced to declare force majeure and find alternative routes to export its product. Today, most Belarusian potash exports flow through Russian ports, a shift that has increased costs and extended lead times. Argus estimates that Klaipeda typically handled 9mn-11mn t/yr of Belarusian MOP. This year, Belarus is on track to export more than 12mn t, surpassing pre-sanction export levels. Without access to the US and EU markets, Belarus has leaned heavily on markets such as Brazil, China and southeast Asia, often pricing aggressively to maintain market share. The reopening of US trade offers a chance to reduce dependence on these regions. The lifting of the sanctions will also make it significantly easier for companies to trade Belarusian potash around the world, except in the EU and the UK, where sanctions remain on Belarus. Importers that had previously stopped taking Belarusian MOP may now be open to trading with Belarus again. By having an additional supply option, buyers may find they have a stronger negotiating position with existing suppliers, which could put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, markets where Belarus has a strong presence could see a reduction of Belarusian volumes if product shifts toward the US, potentially making those regions less competitive. The policy change also comes at a time when Belarusian MOP capacity is increasing capacity, with the 2mn t/yr Nezhinsky MOP project scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of 2026, and underscores Belarus' commitment to continue growing its footprint in the global potash market. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026

15/12/25
15/12/25

Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026

Singapore, 15 December (Argus) — Indonesia's implementation of a 50pc biodiesel (B50) blend mandate and ongoing palm plantation seizures may raise palm oil prices and reduce global waste oil supply, likely keeping palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil prices supported in 2026. The country raised its biodiesel blend target by 5pc to 40pc starting from February 2025 and is targeting another 10pc increase to 50pc by the second half of 2026 . The higher blending mandate would lower total palm oil exports by about 11-12pc in 2026 compared with 2024 and 2025, Indonesian agriculture ministry official Baginda Siagan said at the 21st Indonesian palm oil conference (IPOC2025) in November. This would likely support an increase in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, industry analysts said. Prices of CPO and palm-based waste oil like Pome oil are linked because market participants historically priced Pome oil at a set discount to CPO values, and they are both feedstocks for biofuel production. But waste oil export values have mostly been at a premium to CPO this year due to Indonesia's move to suspend exports of unprocessed Pome oil and used cooking oil (UCO) since 8 January , tightening the global supply of waste oils. Indonesia has yet to resume issuing export permits. The restrictions have since driven exporters to explore refining Pome oil for exports. Refined Pome oil exports totalled 440,000t in January-November, according to Kpler data. No refined Pome oil was shipped in 2024 prior to the export pause because exporters directly shipped unrefined material. Refined Pome oil has lower metals and impurities than unprocessed material and can be used for hydrotreating to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil or hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) with less processing than crude Pome oil. Argus launched the refined Pome oil fob Indonesia assessment on 15 October to reflect the value in this emerging export market, and it has since been priced above rival regional biofuels feedstock assessments. Indonesia's export pause was a key factor driving up waste oil prices in the region to three-year highs in September ( see chart ). The duration of Indonesia's ban on crude Pome oil and UCO exports remains uncertain, but the government may be tempted to maintain restrictions to keep more feedstocks available to expand domestic biofuels production. This would continue to limit seaborne supply and support prices on a fob basis. Speaking at IPOC2025, Indonesia's palm plantation fund (BPDP) head suggested exploring alternative waste feedstocks such as UCO for use in the B50 programme to reduce Indonesia's reliance on CPO as biodiesel feedstock. State-owned Pertamina is already trialling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production through co-processing UCO at its Cilacap refinery since the second quarter of 2025, and shipped about 32,000 litres of UCO-based HEFA-SPK in its first shipment in August . The country is targeting the production of 1mn kilolitres/yr SAF by 2030 . Plantation seizures may squeeze CPO output Palm oil production in Indonesia may be squeezed by the government's ongoing efforts to reclaim plantation lands it said were illegally acquired this year. The Indonesian government in January formed a forestry task force for this purpose and reclaimed over 3.3mn hectares of plantation land by August, according to its website. The land will be transferred to and managed by state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara, which was set up in February to oversee the confiscated land. Agrinas has been recruiting staff to operate its plantation business but the availability of harvesters still poses a challenge, it said in a press release on 1 December. Many in the sector expect the change in land management to reduce plantation efficiency starting in 2026. But the extent of yield and production losses caused by the land seizures remains uncertain, said industry analyst Thomas Mielke at IPOC2025. He estimated palm oil output in the country may decline to 49mn t in 2026 from 49.4mn t in 2025. Ministry officials at IPOC2025 did not comment on the ongoing palm plantation seizures. The collection and export of Pome oil from mills may also fall on the back of fewer fresh fruit bunches harvested from oil palm plantations due to the land seizures. Less CPO available for processing into palm olein for domestic cooking oil could also cause UCO supply to shrink. Traceability concerns continue to threaten demand Meanwhile, concerns surrounding Pome oil traceability have continued among European buyers this year, prompting some EU Member States including Portugal , Germany and Ireland to disincentivise Pome oil usage in their biofuels mandates. Most recently in October, the Dutch emissions authority (NEa) said that it will investigate the international Pome oil supply chain with a focus on "fraud risk", and that any findings could be used in policy recommendations. European Pome oil demand is currently expected to remain stable in the near-term at around 1.9mn t/yr, according to Argus Analytics, but removal of policy support by more markets in the new year could tip the balance. Higher demand for Annex IX Part A feedstocks under the RED III may drive other EU countries to absorb Pome oil volumes diverted from markets that have chosen to disincentivise the feedstock by removing it from the classification. By Malcolm Goh Asian waste oil prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to lift sanctions on Belarus potash

13/12/25
13/12/25

US to lift sanctions on Belarus potash

London, 13 December (Argus) — US sanctions on trade in Belarusian potash are to be lifted, easing its return to open trading. The announcement was made today by US envoy to Belarus John Coale after a series of talks with Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko and is, on the surface, linked to the release of political prisoners by Belarus. No formal update has yet been made to the US Treasury's sanctions database. Current US sanctions specifically designate Belaruskali, Belarus Potash Company (BPC) and Slavkali. Removing US sanctions will make it significantly easier to trade in Belarusian potash for companies around the world. A major exception, though, is the EU which has not shown any sign yet of lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash trade. This marks a significant break from the previous coordination between the US, EU and UK on Belarusian sanctions . Belarus has, despite the sanctions imposed in 2021, exported significant quantities of MOP in recent years — it is on track to export 12mn tonnes this year, over 10pc more than last year — due to creative paperwork and lax enforcement of the sanctions. By Bede Heren Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

12/12/25
12/12/25

Quebec government OKs phosphate mining permit extension

Houston, 12 December (Argus) — The Government of Quebec extended the validity of Canada-based Arianne Phosphate's development approval for two more years while the emerging phosphate mining company pursues a longer extension request for its project in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region. Arianne's Lac à Paul project was granted its initial development in December 2015 from the Quebec government with a valid period of 10 years. The project aims to develop phosphate deposits that will produce a "high-quality" igneous apatite concentrate grading 39pc P2O5 with little to no contaminants, according to Arianne. The Quebec minister will use the two-year period to consider Arianne's request for up to a five-year development extension. Conversations between Arianne and the Ministry of Environment began in 2024 for a permit extension, where several required studies were submitted, the company said. "This extension provides the industry and potential partners with the comfort they need to advance the project's development and address the need for this critical mineral," chief operating officer Raphael Gaudreault said. The Lac à Paul project is the only fully permitted greenfield phosphate project in North America. The phosphate deposit's igneous rock allows for easy transformation of its high-purity, low contaminant phosphate concentrate into purified phosphoric acid, a necessary ingredient for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, Arianne said. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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