Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Saudi Aramco said today that it expects to hit its previously announced 13mn b/d crude capacity target in 2027.
The company announced in March last year plans to raise its production capacity by 1mn b/d from its current 12mn b/d, with most of the increase coming from offshore fields.
"That additional 1mn b/d will take a couple of years, it's not going to come at full capacity at 13mn b/d until 2027," Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum today. "It takes years, 2-3 years between front-end engineering and then construction will take also another 3-4 years," he said.
Aramco aims to deliver the bulk of the increase by expanding the capacity of three producing offshore fields — 300,000 b/d will be added to the 400,000 b/d Marjan field, a further 250,000 b/d will be installed at the 300,000 b/d Berri field, and an additional 600,000 b/d at the 825,000 b/d Zuluf field. The rest of the planned capacity increase will come from onshore fields.
Aramco had initially said that the three offshore expansion projects would serve to offset natural decline and maintain its overall crude capacity at 12mn b/d, rather than provide a net capacity increase. But the Saudi government later instructed the firm to boost capacity to 13mn b/d.
"We are doing our share in terms of building [capacity] even though we have adequate spare capacity today. We are bringing additional supplies to the market while we're working on reducing our emissions at the same time," Nasser said.
The expansion is underpinned by Saudi Arabia's 260bn bl of proven crude reserves, which give the country the flexibility to add capacity when and if required, Nasser said. "But it will come in increments. It doesn't come in one shot. It's different increments coming in phases, but reaching their full capacity will be 2027," he said.
Unconventional Gas
Aramco is also working on the onshore Jafura shale gas project, to the east of the giant Ghawar oil field. First gas is expected in 2025, slightly later than initial guidance, at a rate of 200mn-300mn ft³/d. Aramco expects Jafura to hit its full 2bn ft³/d capacity by the end of the decade.
The enormous project covers around 170-200km of source rock, contains huge quantities of liquids-rich gas and boasts competitive economics, according to Nasser. "Most of our current costs are fairly close to [shale gas projects in] North America. While stimulation costs are just below North America," he said.
Jafura will play an important role in Saudi Arabia's ambition to eliminate liquids from power generation, freeing up crude and products for export and reducing the kingdom's overall emissions. The ethane-rich gas will also provide a significant amount of feedstock to help Aramco grow its petrochemicals capacity.
There has been speculation that Aramco may invite international investors to take part in the Jafura development. Nasser said the company is willing to explore collaboration, but not in the upstream side of the project. "There will be a lot of midstream and downstream opportunities, especially with hydrogen," he said.
Aramco has already outlined plans to develop blue hydrogen — which is derived from natural gas through steam methane reforming, with the CO2 emissions then captured and either stored or utilised. But the scale of Saudi Arabia's hydrogen sector will depend on demand. "We have the interest, the capacity and the resources. But right now, we are waiting to see the appetite for big scaled investments," Nasser said.
