Euronext wheat hits record high on supply uncertainties

Spanish Market: Agriculture
23/11/21

Euronext milling wheat futures prices have reached all-time highs amid rising concerns over Australian wheat crop quality and uncertainties over further export restrictions in Russia, which could significantly tighten global wheat supply in the second half of the 2021-22 marketing year.

The Euronext milling wheat front-month contract settled at a record of €309/t ($347.42/t) yesterday, after breaching the €310/t threshold during the trading session.

Persistent rain in Australia continues to disrupt wheat harvesting, reducing crop quality and providing support to milling grade prices globally.

There has been three weeks of heavy rain in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, with wet weather expected to continue to the end of the month. As a result, about 40pc of Australian wheat from the 2021-22 crop could be unfit for milling purposes.

This would further tighten global milling wheat supply, which has already been hit by a lower-quality French wheat crop as well as by a significant drop in Canadian wheat production after a severe drought this summer.

Russia's introduction of a grain export quota in the second half of this marketing year is adding to the uncertainties surrounding global milling wheat supply. Moscow could introduce a wheat-specific quota in mid-February, while modifying its existing floating export duty formula to impose higher taxes if global wheat prices rise further.

This has fuelled increases in Black Sea wheat prices, with the Argus-assessed Russian spot 12.5pc milling wheat contract closing at $345/t fob yesterday, up by $15/t since the start of the month, and up from $246/t fob at the start of the 2021-22 marketing year in July.

Canadian wheat exports have been disrupted by widespread flooding in British Columbia in mid-November, which caused delays and disruption to road and rail links at the port of Vancouver, while Ukrainian wheat export availability is tightening because of the fast pace of shipments in the first half of the season.

Ukraine's overall wheat exports since the start of the 2021-22 marketing year have already exceeded 14mn t, up by 2.5mn t from a year earlier, reaching about 55pc of the official target of 25.3mn t for the full marketing year.

Rising concerns over wheat supply are forcing global importers to speed up purchasing to secure their required volumes. China has accelerated purchases of French wheat and Algeria last week booked large volumes of Russian-origin wheat, with both countries lowering their quality requirements for imported wheat.

And global demand for wheat should remain strong in the short term, while supply could be limited in the coming weeks as most sellers in exporting countries have adopted a wait-and-see approach as they monitor developments in Australia and Russia.

By Victoria Blazhko

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30/04/24

US Treasury updates SAF tax credit guidelines

Houston, 30 April (Argus) — The US Treasury Department released long-awaited guidance on tax credit eligibility for ethanol-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) Tuesday, incorporating so-called climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices. As part of the new guidance, the agencies comprising the SAF Interagency Working Group (IWG) are jointly releasing the 40B SAF-GREET 2024 model, which provides another methodology for SAF producers to determine lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates of their production for the credit. It also incorporates a pilot program to encourage the usage of CSA practices for SAF feedstocks. In collaboration with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the major changes include further guidance on farming practices, including no-till farming, planting cover crops and enhanced efficiency fertilizer. The $1.25/USG 40B SAF credit applies to a qualified fuel mixture containing SAF for certain sales or uses after 31 December 2022, and before 1 January 2025. To qualify for the credit, the SAF must have a minimum lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 50pc compared with petroleum-based jet fuel. Additionally, there is a supplemental credit of one cent for each percent that the reduction exceeds 50pc, for a maximum credit of $1.75/USG. The modified version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) also incorporates new data, including updated modeling of key feedstocks and processes used in aviation fuel and indirect emissions. The modified GREET model also integrates key GHG emission reduction strategies, such as carbon capture and storage, renewable natural gas, and renewable electricity. The notice provides a safe harbor for use of the USDA Climate Smart Agriculture Pilot Program to further cut the emissions reduction percentage calculated for domestic soybean and domestic corn feedstocks and for certifying the related requirements. For corn ethanol-to-jet, the pilot provides a greenhouse gas reduction credit if a "bundle" of certain CSA practices — no-till farming, cover crop planting, and enhanced efficiency fertilizer — are used. It would also allow a greenhouse gas reduction credit for soybean-to-jet production if the soybean feedstock is produced using similar CSA practices. This is a pilot program specific to the 40B credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is in effect for 2023 and 2024. A new 45Z-GREET will be developed for use with the 45Z tax credit, which starts on 1 Jan 2025. Given the similar language between section 40B and section 45Z of the IRA regarding methods for determining lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction percentages, it is expected that the positions taken by Treasury and the IRS related to the section 40B credit will be similar for the new clean fuel producer credit under section 45Z. Industry reaction mixed Renewable fuels groups welcome the updated pathway for ethanol-to-jet, but the groups expressed concern over the scope of the guidance. "We are encouraged that, for the first time ever, this carbon scoring framework will recognize and credit certain climate-smart agricultural practices," Renewable Fuels Association president and chief executive Geoff Cooper said. "However, RFA believes less prescription on ag practices, more flexibility, and additional low-carbon technologies and practices should be added to the modeling framework to better reflect the innovation occurring throughout the supply chain." Kailee Buller, chief executive of the National Oilseed Processors Association, also said the new guidance has shortcomings. "We are concerned the requirement to implement climate-smart ag practices simultaneously will limit this opportunity, particularly in parts of the country where it may not be possible to plant a cover crop or the cost to implement new practices is too steep," Buller said. Both groups said they would continue to work with the Biden administration to further opportunities for SAF development. By Matthew Cope and Payne Williams Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New US rule may let some shippers swap railroads

30/04/24

New US rule may let some shippers swap railroads

Washington, 30 April (Argus) — US rail regulators today issued a final rule designed to help customers switch railroads in cases of poor rail service, but it is already drawing mixed reviews. Reciprocal switching, which allows freight shippers or receivers captive to a single railroad to access to an alternate carrier, has been allowed under US Surface Transportation Board (STB) rules. But shippers had not used existing STB rules to petition for reciprocal switching in 35 years, prompting regulators to revise rules to encourage shippers to pursue switching while helping resolve service problems. "The rule adopted today has broken new ground in the effort to provide competitive options in an extraordinarily consolidated rail industry," said outgoing STB chairman Martin Oberman. The five-person board unanimously approved a rule that would allow the board to order a reciprocal switching agreement if a facility's rail service falls below specified levels. Orders would be for 3-5 years. "Given the repeated episodes of severe service deterioration in recent years, and the continuing impediments to robust and consistent rail service despite the recent improvements accomplished by Class I carriers, the board has chosen to focus on making reciprocal switching available to shippers who have suffered service problems over an extended period of time," Oberman said today. STB commissioner Robert Primus voted to approve the rule, but also said it did not go far enough. The rule adopted today is "unlikely to accomplish what the board set out to do" since it does not cover freight moving under contract, he said. "I am voting for the final rule because something is better than nothing," Primus said. But he said the rule also does nothing to address competition in the rail industry. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) is reviewing the 154-page final rule, but carriers have been historically opposed to reciprocal switching proposals. "Railroads have been clear about the risks of expanded switching and the resulting slippery slope toward unjustified market intervention," AAR said. But the trade group was pleased that STB rejected "previous proposals that amounted to open access," which is a broad term for proposals that call for railroads to allow other carriers to operate over their tracks. The American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association declined to comment but has indicated it does not expect the rule to have an appreciable impact on shortline traffic, service or operations. Today's rule has drawn mixed reactions from some shipper groups. The National Industrial Transportation League (NITL), which filed its own reciprocal switching proposal in 2011, said it was encouraged by the collection of service metrics required under the rule. But "it is disheartened by its narrow scope as it does not appear to apply to the vast majority of freight rail traffic that moves under contracts or is subject to commodity exemptions," said NITL executive director Nancy O'Liddy, noting it was a departure from the group's original petition which sought switching as a way to facilitate railroad economic competitiveness. The Chlorine Institute said, in its initial analysis, that it does not "see significant benefit for our shipper members since it excludes contract traffic which covers the vast majority of chlorine and other relevant chemical shipments." By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's 2024-25 wheat, barley exports to fall: USDA

30/04/24

Australia's 2024-25 wheat, barley exports to fall: USDA

Dalby, 30 April (Argus) — Australia's wheat and barley exports for the 2024-25 marketing year are projected by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to fall because of reduced domestic stocks with increased export demand. Australia's wheat production is forecast at 25.8mn t for March 2024 to February 2025, below the previous year's 26mn t, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report. Wheat yields are predicted at 2.15 t/hectrare (t/ha), 3pc below the previous 10-year average of 2.22 t/ha. This forecast is below recent past yield results, which peaked at 3.11 t/ha in 2022-23. Barley production is forecast at 10.9mn t, similar to the previous year's 10.8mn t but based on increased planted area and a lower average yield, the report said. Wheat exports are forecast at 17.5mn t, a 2.5mn t fall from the 2023-24 estimate of 20mn t. Australia's barley exports are projected at 5mn t, 2mn t below 7mn t in 2023-24. A previous three years of high barley production has resulted in a stockbuild, which the USD FAS expects to be drawn down in 2023-24 because of firm export demand. East Australia's New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland states have generally received average to above-average rainfall from the start of 2024, which has led to good soil moisture at the start of planting. But Western Australia and South Australia started the planting period with below-average soil moisture and have yet to receive enough rain to get the winter planting going in earnest, according to the report. The weather will influence decision-making regrading increased fallow area and changing the balance of the winter cropping programme. The extent of the change will depend on how much and when the rain falls. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 16 April declared an end to El Nino weather trend with its dryer than usual conditions that it first announced in September 2023. Conditions have returned to neutral, with BoM reporting that some climate models indicate a chance of a shift to the wetter than usual conditions of La Nina by July this year. But the majority of Australia had average to above-average rainfall despite an El Nino being declared. By Jessica Clarke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Estoques de etanol no Centro-Sul recuam em abril

29/04/24

Estoques de etanol no Centro-Sul recuam em abril

Sao Paulo, 29 April (Argus) — Os estoques de etanol no Centro-Sul caíram 18pc na primeira metade de abril, à medida que as atividades da safra de cana-de-açúcar de 2024-25 começaram. Os estoques do biocombustível na principal região produtora do Brasil recuaram para 2,2 milhões de m³ até o dia 16 de abril, em comparação com 2,7 milhões de m³ registrados na quinzena anterior, segundo dados do Ministério da Agricultura. Na comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado, quando os estoques foram de 1,9 milhão de m³, o avanço foi de 17pc. Os estoques de etanol hidratado representaram 1,3 milhões de m³ do total acumulado no período, baixa de 14pc na quinzena e alta de 12pc na variação anual. Já o etanol anidro totalizou cerca de 875.700m³, queda de 23pc na comparação com a quinzena anterior e crescimento de 25pc no ano. Até 16 de abril, 171 plantas haviam iniciado as operações para a nova temporada, em comparação com 166 unidades no mesmo período do ciclo anterior, de acordo com a União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica). O início da safra facilitou o acesso de participantes de mercado aos estoques do biocombustível, ao passo que alguns players reportaram dificuldades em comprar de estoques no fim de março. Por Laura Guedes Produção sucroalcooleira do Centro-Sul 15-Abril ano atrás ± Etanol total m³ 830.437 721.630 15% Cana-de-açúcar '000t 15.847 15.155 5% Açúcar t 675.822 582.476 16% Mapa Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

STB chair Oberman to leave rail agency on 10 May

26/04/24

STB chair Oberman to leave rail agency on 10 May

Washington, 26 April (Argus) — US Surface Transportation Board (STB) chairman Martin Oberman (D) said today that he would retire in two weeks, though a replacement has not been named. Oberman informed President Joe Biden of his decision in a letter earlier today. Oberman said in mid-November 2023 that he would exit the agency in early 2024 . His five-year term expired on 31 December but he continued to serve into his one-year holdover term. No additional details have been announced, but vice chairman Karen Hedlund (D) is expected to lead the rail regulator until a formal appointment has been made. Chairman Oberman's "commitment to exploring all sides of an issue was pivotal in helping to find solutions for stakeholders," the Freight Rail Customer Alliance said. National Grain and Feed Association chief executive Mike Seyfert said pointed to Oberman's actions in working toward significant regulatory milestones for agricultural shippers and railroads. Under Oberman's leadership, STB has moved forward on long-standing proposal to allow reciprocal switching. The switching plan would allow a shipper served by a single railroad to request that its freight be transferred to another major railroad at a designated interchange point. STB is expected to act on reciprocal switching as early as this month, after introducing a plan tied to railroad service performance in September 2023. His term was also highlighted by several major industry events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern and the 2022 rail service crisis. Oberman was nominated by former US president Donald Trump in July 2018. His appointment was confirmed by the US Senate in January 2019 and he was appointed chairman by President Joe Biden in January 2021. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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