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Russian military units enter Kazakhstan: Update

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, LPG
  • 06/01/22

Adds CPC pipeline operator in paragraph 6, updated production estimate in paragraph 7

Russian military units have entered Kazakhstan at the government's request after fuel price protests turned violent.

The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a grouping of former Soviet Union countries, said it will send "peacekeeping forces" for a limited time. Argus understands this to be the first time the CSTO has mobilised in this way since it was founded in 1999. Russian state-owned news agency Tass said advanced airborne units are already in Kazakhstan.

The CSTO said the situation is viewed as an external threat, "an invasion of bandit formations trained from abroad." But the origin of the protests appears to be more domestic, erupting after an increase in the price of LPG that is widely used as motor fuel in Kazakhstan. Market participants told Argus yesterday that higher wholesale prices in November were now being passed through at a retail level.

The Kazakhstan government's immediate actions in the face of the protests bear this out. It ordered the prices of LPG, gasoline and diesel to be regulated for six months and the government resigned, having, in the words of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, failed to carry out "one of its main tasks — keeping inflation in check."

The extent and apparent severity of the protests led the government to declare states of emergency in some areas. Verifying facts on the ground in Kazakhstan is difficult, with internet coverage again patchy today, according to monitoring watchdog NetBlocks, with telephone communication also problematic. Unverified video footage has variously shown large protests, buildings on fire and soldiers on the streets.

There is no indication the unrest is having any effect on Kazakhstan's crude production or exports. The operator of the CPC pipeline, which transports crude from fields in Kazakhstan to an export terminal on the Black Sea, said all facilities are operating normally. January-loading exports of light sour Caspian CPC Blend crude are scheduled at 1.425mn b/d.

Chevron-led producer Tengizchevroil, the largest exporter of CPC Blend, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about its operations. Kazakhstan's crude output quota under the Opec+ agreement is 1.57mn b/d this month and will be 1.59mn b/d in February. Argus assessed it has been producing above its target recently, with output in December of around 1.65mn b/d. The country's energy ministry attributed this overproduction to seasonal needs.


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10/10/24

Hurricane Milton leaves 3.4mn in the dark

Hurricane Milton leaves 3.4mn in the dark

New York, 10 October (Argus) — About 3.4mn customers in Florida were without power this morning after Hurricane Milton pummeled the state with heavy rainfall and strong winds. Utility crews began the process of assessing and repairing the damage caused by the hurricane which tore down trees and downed power lines after slamming into Florida's west coast as a powerful Category 3 hurricane late Wednesday. Florida Power & Light had about 1.2mn homes and businesses without electricity, Duke Energy reported about 875,000 outages, while about 592,000 customers of Tampa Electric were affected, according to independent tracker Poweroutage.us. Milton, which has since weakened to a category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 85mph, is now moving off the east coast of Florida. "On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the Bahamas today," according to the National Hurricane Center. The risk of life-threatening storm surge remains on the eastern coast of Florida, while hurricane-force winds are expected to linger for a few more hours. Major flooding as a result of heavy rainfall also continues to pose a threat. A recovery in road fuel supplies, which were strained by the pre-storm evacuation of hundreds of thousands of residents, will depend on the extent of power, roadway and port outages. The state has waived statutes regulating the sale, storage and distribution of liquid fuels . By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 president calls for progress on finance


10/10/24
10/10/24

Cop 29 president calls for progress on finance

Edinburgh, 10 October (Argus) — The president-designate of the upcoming UN Cop 29 climate summit, Mukhtar Babayev, has urged parties to progress on a timeframe and an amount for the new climate finance goal to be decided at the conference in Baku next month. At a pre-Cop meeting today, Babayev stressed the need to "take seriously the responsibility for identifying a number over a timeframe and come forward with solutions". "We cannot afford to leave too much to be decided at the summit," he added. Cop parties must agree in November on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — building on the current $100bn/yr target that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But there remains a huge divide to bridge between developed and developing nations ahead of Cop 29 . Developed countries have yet to commit to a number for climate finance, while developing nations have for some time called for a floor of at least $1 trillion/yr. The Cop 29 presidency is seeking to build on "possible convergence on certain elements" to provide a solid foundation to discussions on other parts of the goal, Babayev said. Elements for the formulation of the goal include an amount for the NCGQ, timeframes, scope, sources, as well as accessibility and transparency. Babayev did not provide details on potential convergence, but some common ground was found during technical discussions on elements such as access and transparency. "Qualitative elements of the goal such as transparency and accessibility are also essential to ensuring that the goal is both fair and ambitious," he said. "The substantive framework for the draft negotiation text" on the NCGQ will be released in the next few days, according to Babayev. The NCQG is Cop 29's "top negotiating priority", Babayev said, but he also urged parties to turn pledges made last year for the loss and damage fund — which will support vulnerable countries with the irreversible and unavoidable effects of climate change — into contributions. He said that countries need to "respond to the goal of the UAE consensus [Cop 28 agreement] to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and orderly manner taking into account different national circumstances". There is "no time for us to allow for anyone to try and backpedal on what we have collectively committed to in Dubai," Cop 28 president Sultan al-Jaber said at the meeting today. Cop 28 last year ended with an agreement that included transitioning away from fossil fuels and tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030. Al-Jaber said that the next NDCs must be aligned with the Paris agreement and the Cop 28 deal to keep 1.5°C — the Paris accord's most ambitious temperature limit — within reach. NDCs "must be economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases and seize the opportunity of climate action as a driver for sustainable growth", he said. He recognised the efforts of G7 countries in including references to the Cop 28 agreement in their final communique and that he "was very hopeful that the same would happen at G20" later this year. G7 countries in May committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. They also pledged "to transition away from fossil fuels" in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating actions in this critical decade, to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the best available science", which is the language used in the Cop 28 text. Heads of states and governments in September adopted a pact that also included this wording ahead of the UN general assembly . By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida: Update


09/10/24
09/10/24

Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida: Update

New York, 9 October (Argus) — Strong winds and heavy rainfall are lashing Florida's west coast ahead of Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to make landfall late tonight as a major hurricane. The growing risk of life-threatening storm surge and flooding have sparked mass evacuations given Milton's potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record to strike the region. Multiple tornado warnings have also been issued across the Florida peninsula. Milton was located about 100 miles southwest of Tampa at 4pm ET today, packing maximum sustained winds of 125mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving to the northeast at 17 mph. "On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday," the center said. Milton is expected to remain at hurricane strength as it sweeps over the Florida peninsula, before gradually weakening as it moves back out to sea. Fuel supplies, prices tighten Mandatory evacuations for hundreds of thousands of west coast Florida residents led to a fuel shortages in some areas ahead of the storm. The state waived four statutes regulating fuel sales, storage and distribution to shore up supplies and has been escorting fuel trucks to retail stations that have run dry. Prices for Florida CBOB delivered at Tampa and Port Everglades fell by 0.75¢/USG to $2.08/USG today, down from their highest point since mid-August on Monday at $2.18/USG. Cash differentials were stable in the gasoline cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial CBOB +10¢/USG. Florida ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered to Port Everglades fell by 2.23¢/USG to $2.30/USG today. Cash differentials were unchanged in the waterborne ULSD cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial ULSD +12.25¢/USG. Milton's storm surge and destructive winds in the Tampa area have the potential to significantly damage a key import hub from which refined products are sent by pipeline to the Orlando area and distributed by truck throughout the state. If terminals at the port are quick to reopen, blocked roads and flooding could prohibit fuel truck deliveries to gas stations that may not even have power. The offshore oil and natural gas hub in the Gulf of Mexico was largely spared as Milton's track took it well south of most platforms. By Stephen Cunningham, Stephanie Crawford, Cooper Sukaly and Nathan Risser Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US September OCTG, line pipe imports may rise


09/10/24
09/10/24

US September OCTG, line pipe imports may rise

Houston, 9 October (Argus) — US imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe products could increase in September. US OCTG imports could be 114,500 metric tonnes (t) in September, which would represent an increase of 15,200t compared to the prior year, according to license data from the US Department of Commerce, which is subject to change. If realized the September OCTG rise would be driven by a potential 19,800t increase from the prior year from South Korea to 60,600t and a 7,700t increase in volumes from Taiwan, up from none in the prior year. Those increases are partially offset by a possible 8,400t decrease in volumes from Canada and a 5,100t decrease from Mexico. If September OCTG import volumes do rise, it will be only the second month since May 2023 that import volumes have increased year over year. Line pipe imports may jump by 19,200t from the prior year to 101,800t. That increase could be driven by a 9,500t increase in line pipe of unspecified diameter from South Korea to 34,700t, and a 3,900t increase in Japanese volumes for line pipe less than or equal to 16in. By Rye Druzchetta US pipe and tube import licenses metric tonnes Product Sep-24 Sep-23 Difference ±% Aug-24 OCTG 114,521 99,310 15,211 15.3% 129,096 Line pipe* 101,777 82,589 19,188 23.2% 84,940 Standard 56,725 56,488 237 0.4% 63,929 Heavy Structural Shapes 57,682 43,364 14,318 33.0% 66,669 US Department of Commerce; September 2024 data is license data, which is subject to change. *Line pipe is all diameters. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29


09/10/24
09/10/24

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29

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