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Shale discipline gears up for biggest test yet

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 18/01/22

The US shale sector's financial discipline of the past year is facing its biggest challenge yet, as persistently high crude prices boost profits while signs that the latest Covid-19 wave will pass quickly indicate improved demand growth prospects.

US crude output will reach an annual record of 12.4mn b/d as soon as next year, according to the EIA, despite pledges by shale producers to exercise capital restraint. And production in 2022 is expected to average 11.8mn b/d, up from 11.2mn b/d last year. The EIA cites oil prices that "we expect will be sufficient to lead to continued increases in upstream development activity, which we forecast will proceed at a pace that will more than offset decline rates".

EOG Resources chief executive Ezra Yacob recently raised eyebrows when he said the shale producer could boost output by the summer if market conditions — specifically, the combination of global inventory levels, demand and Opec+ spare capacity — line up to show the need for higher US crude output. "Then EOG would be in a position to return to pre-Covid levels of production, which would be about 465,000 b/d, no more than 5pc growth," Yacob told a Goldman Sachs conference earlier this month. "If the world has a call on oil and there's room to grow our low-cost, lower-emissions barrels into the market, we can certainly deliver on that," he said.

With the exception of privately held exploration firms, the shale patch has been on its best behaviour during the oil market's recovery from the pandemic-induced collapse of 2020, which briefly saw US crude prices turn negative for the first time. Publicly listed companies have been focused on paying down debt and ramping up investor returns — through dividends and buy-backs — rather than pursuing their former growth-at-all-costs strategy. But questions remain about how long the new industry mantra of capital discipline will last, as oil prices push higher, demand bounces back and doubts linger about the ability of Opec+ to restore supply to the market. "Could it erode?" asks Tom Jorden, chief executive of Houston-based Coterra Energy. "Of course it could. But I don't see signs of it in 2022."

The $100/bl question

Other shale executives speaking at the Goldman conference agreed that shareholder sentiment would need to change before the sector resumes growth. "Right now, for most of us, shareholders are saying we don't want you to grow, we're in love with returns," Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice says.

But some producers could be tempted to open the taps if oil prices continue to rise. "I don't think it'd be good for the industry, but if oil was over $100/bl, then that probably does signal some growth," Stice says. His counterpart at Devon Energy, Rick Muncrief, plays down the threat posed by private equity-backed independents, which are relatively free of the shareholder pressures faced by their publicly listed rivals. "I don't know that the privates will truly move the needle," he says.

Production this year will be driven by the oil majors and privately held independents, Bank of America predicts. Higher spending will be concentrated on the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico, which the bank's analysts expect to hit a new annual production record of 5.3mn b/d. Consultancy Rystad Energy forecasts that US shale capital expenditure (capex) will surge by 18pc to $84bn this year, up from $71bn last year. Almost a fifth of companies in a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City expect capex to increase significantly this year, with firms in US central Great Plains states needing crude prices to average $73/bl to trigger a substantial increase in drilling. But a survey last month by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas highlighted shale producer concerns that rising supply chain disruption and associated inflation could weigh on drilling and completion activity in 2022, constraining growth prospects, despite higher spending.


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06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill


06/12/24
06/12/24

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

Houston, 6 December (Argus) — A US House of Representatives committee has approved a bipartisan bill that authorizes improvements to navigation channels by the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and maintenance and dredging of river and port infrastructure projects. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) after several months of political wrangling to integrate earlier versions of the legislation approved by the House and Senate . The bill will head to the full House next week, said committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). This would be the sixth consecutive bipartisan WRDA bill since 2014 if passed by congress. WRDA is a biennial bill that authorizes the Corps to continue working on projects to improve waterways, including port updates, flood protection and supply chain management. WRDA will also "reduce cumbersome red tape", which will allow for quicker project turnarounds, Graves said. The bill authorizes processes to streamline work, he said. The bill also adjusts the primary cost-sharing mechanism for funding for lock and dam construction and major rehabilitation projects. The US Treasury Department's general fund will pay 75pc of costs, up from 65pc, with the rest coming from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is funded by a barge diesel fuel tax. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ delays unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut again: Update


05/12/24
05/12/24

Opec+ delays unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut again: Update

Updates throughout Dubai, 5 December (Argus) — Opec+ producers have delayed a plan to start increasing crude output by another three months to April 2025. Eight members of the group ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman ꟷ were scheduled to begin gradually unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts from January over a 12-month period. They agreed today to postpone the start of the production increase until April and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. The delay is designed "to support market stability", the Opec Secretariat said, adding that the unwinding of the cuts "can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions". The Opec+ group also agreed today that a 300,000 b/d production target increase for the UAE will now be phased in starting in April over an-18 month period. It was previously set to be phased in over nine months starting in January. These changes will effectively reduce the amount of additional oil being introduced to the market every month, compared to the previous plan. The return of the 2.2mn b/d of cuts should, in theory, be partially offset by those members that have pledged to compensate for exceeding their production targets this year. These compensation-related cuts were supposed to have been delivered by the end of September 2025 but this has now been extended until June 2026. Opec+ also agreed today to keep in place two other sets of cuts by an additional year to the end of 2026. These cuts — a group-wide 2mn b/d reduction to formal targets and 1.65mn b/d of voluntary cuts by nine members — had been set to remain in place until the end of 2025. And an update to the official crude production capacity levels of each member — from which quotas are calculated — was pushed back by another year to 2027. By Bachar Halabi, Nader Itayim and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell, Equinor to create biggest UK producer: Update


05/12/24
05/12/24

Shell, Equinor to create biggest UK producer: Update

adds details throughout London, 5 December (Argus) — Shell and Norway's state-controlled Equinor plan to combine their UK upstream businesses into a joint venture to create the UK North Sea's largest oil and gas producer. The new business will produce more than 140,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) from 2025, the companies said. Bank analysts reckon growth projects will enable production to eventually increase beyond 200,000 boe/d. It marks the latest deal in a wave of consolidation in the the UK sector of the North Sea, including Italian firm Eni's deal earlier this year to merge its UK upstream assets with those of independent producer Ithaca Energy and UK company Harbour Energy's tie-up with Germany's Wintershall Dea last year . Shell and Equinor are following a similar 50:50 ownership structure and self-financing model that BP and Italy's Eni employed in Angola when they combined their offshore assets there to create Azule Energy in 2022 . The Shell-Equinor joint venture's assets will include Equinor's stakes in the Mariner and Buzzard fields, alongside Shell's interests in Shearwater, Penguins, Gannet, Nelson, Pierce, Jackdaw, Victory, Clair and Schiehallion projects. A consequence of the deal is that Shell, having walked away from Ithaca's contentious Cambo oil project in the UK's west of Shetlands area last year, will now be exposed to Equinor's equally controversial 300mn bl Rosebank project , which is currently under judicial review . If Rosebank goes ahead, it is likely to be the largest growth driver of the new company with around 70,000 boe/d of production from 2027. Although Shell's assets will contribute a greater share of the joint venture's production to begin with, Equinor's assets have greater growth potential. Through the new entity, Shell will also benefit from Equinor UK's £6bn ($7.6bn) of tax losses. "Equinor's higher UK tax loss position and growth potential offsets the higher current production in Shell's UK portfolio, hence the 50:50 split in ownership of the new company," Barclays analysts wrote in a note. The deal does not include Equinor's assets that straddle the UK's maritime border with Norway — Utgard, Barnacle and Statfjord. Equinor will also retain ownership of its UK offshore wind portfolio, as well as other low-carbon and gas storage assets. Shell will retain ownership of its interests in Scotland's Fife NGL plant and St Fergus Gas Terminal, as well as floating wind projects under development. It will also remain the technical developer of the Acorn carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in Scotland. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight to delay, extend unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut


05/12/24
05/12/24

Opec+ eight to delay, extend unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut

Dubai, 5 December (Argus) — Some Opec+ members have agreed to push back by three months, to April, a plan to gradually return 2.2mn b/d of production to the market, delegate sources told Argus . Eight countries ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman ꟷ were scheduled to begin unwinding the 2.2mn b/d cut over 12 months, starting from January. But three delegate sources today said the group will delay the start of this plan to April. The full amount will be returned over 18 months, according to one of the sources. This would reduce the amount of oil being introduced to the market every month. But the return of this output should, in theory, be partly offset by members who have pledged to compensate for exceeding their production targets this year. Argus calculations show that of the eight countries, only Algeria does not have any overproduction to compensate for. Iraq has the most, followed by Kazakhstan, Russia and Gabon. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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