Global capacity is insufficient to make up for all of the estimated 7mn b/d of Russian crude and product exports that could be shut off in the event of a ban, according to Opec.
"The world simply does not have the capacity — it is not about market share now, it is how do we mitigate, how do we overcome this crisis," Opec secretary-general Mohammed Barkindo said today at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas.
The Opec+ group has shown little willingness to deviate from its current schedule for returning supply to the market even as prices surge to multi-year highs on the conflict in Ukraine.
"We have no control over current events as geopolitics have overtaken the market and are dictating the pace," Barkindo said. "All we can do is to stay the course of our decisions, to faithfully implement them."
Last week, Opec+ agreed to increase output by no more than its planned 400,000 b/d increment for April.
Barkindo spoke as WTI crude futures rallied to their highest since September 2008 as the EU and the US consider direct sanctions on Russian oil exports.
The main concern he had heard from several speakers at the conference was the risk that the market's current tightness could lead to demand destruction. "The jury is out because we do not know at the moment — things are almost evolving by the hour," he said.
The other side of the equation is that supply is increasingly lagging behind, and capacity is being held back for different reasons, he said.
Access to capital to invest in the industry is also becoming a "huge challenge", given that oil and gas have to be part of the solution for the climate transition.
