Energy crisis today worse than 1970s: IEA
The global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has a larger impact on energy supplies than the oil crises in the 1970s, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol has said.
The global energy crisis is worse the oil crises of the 1970s because of Moscow's role as the world's largest oil and gas exporter prior to the war, and its status as a significant coal exporter, whereas both energy shocks in the 1970s were triggered by oil producers, Birol told delegates at the Sydney Energy Forum (SEF).
But energy consumers will respond swiftly respond to supply shocks, like they did in the 1970s, and accelerate the transition to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through greater use of renewable energy, hydrogen and battery storage technology, Birol said.
"We are in the middle of the first global energy crisis," Birol said. "The world has never witnessed such a energy crisis in terms of its depth and consequences. It is interwoven by many factors including geopolitics, and I believe we may not have seen the worst of it yet. This winter in Europe will be very, very difficult."
In the 1970s, there was only an oil crisis after the Arab oil embargo in 1974 and the Iranian revolution in 1979, he said. "Today we have a crisis with oil, gas and coal where all of their prices are going up," he said. "It all has to do with Russia, as on 24 February (the day the invasion began), Russia was the number one oil exporter of the world, the number one gas exporter and a major player in the coal market and as a result we are seeing the entire energy system is going through a crisis."
Another difference between the 1970s and now is that the world has readily available clean energy technologies. The share of renewables, especially solar energy, in the total electricity supply has been increasing, he said. "In 2019 only 2pc of new car sales were electric cars, this year in 2022 we are going to see almost 15pc of all the cars sold in the world being electric cars," Birol said.
The third difference from the 1970s is that many countries around the world have greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, he said.
The energy crisis will also prompt a response from energy consuming countries. "The current situation may also be a turning point in the history of energy," Birol said. "I believe this for two reasons, first, the drivers for a clean energy future today are economic realities, climate commitments and at the same time national energy security."
The second reason is based on historical behaviour. "In the 1970s we had two oil crisis, one after another. They also led to innovation in energy policies," Birol said. In the 1970s cars required on average 18 litres of fuel to run 100km, but new energy policies saw this requirement reduce to 10 litres, he said.
"We are going to see some tension in some countries on how they are going to align their national energy security demands with climate demand, but countries should not lock in large scale fossil fuel investments," Birol said.
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CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
London, 2 May (Argus) — Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) across central and eastern Europe have launched the start of binding incremental capacity processes aimed at facilitating larger gas flows from south to north. Romanian, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Moldovan and Ukrainian operators have published joint documents outlining the necessary conditions for participating in the upcoming annual auctions on 1 July. Bulgarian and Romanian TSOs Bulgartransgaz and Transgaz will offer an additional roughly 123 GWh/d of capacity from Bulgaria to Romania at Negru Voda 1-Kardam on top of existing available capacity of 126-142 GWh/d depending on the year ( see BG-RO table ). In the event of a successful auction and subsequent economic test, the TSOs hope to reach a final investment decision (FID) in the third quarter of this year and commission the upgrades in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial operations could begin in the fourth quarter, aligning with the start of the 2026-27 gas year. This timeline has been moved forward by one year from the original proposals earlier this year . Transgaz, along with Hungary's FGSZ, will offer up to 73 GWh/d of additional capacity from Romania to Hungary at Csanadpalota on top of existing available capacity of 5-71 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-HU table ), but maintained its three-tiered approach elaborated in an earlier market consultation . Depending on the level of capacity to which firms commit at the auction, capacity could increase by 9.5 GWh/d, 47.3 GWh/d or 72.5 GWh/d. The smallest project could start commercial operations in the first quarter of 2028, the middle level in the third quarter of 2028, and the highest level in the third quarter of 2029. These timelines are pushed back by roughly one year from the originally-proposed dates in the February consultation. And Transgaz, along with Ukraine's GTSOU, will offer an additional 77 GWh/d of capacity from Romania to Ukraine at Isaccea 1-Orlovka 1 on top of existing available capacity of 97-109 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-UA table ). The TSOs aim to reach FID in the third quarter of this year and commission the project in the fourth quarter of 2028. Commercial operations could begin in October 2028. GTSOU and its Moldovan counterpart Vestmoldtransgaz will offer 173 GWh/d towards Moldova from Ukraine at Kaushany starting from the 2027-28 gas year, while simultaneously offering 159 GWh/d of capacity from Moldova towards Ukraine at Grebenyky. By Brendan A'Hearn Available and incremental capacity at Negru Voda/Kardam GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 141 - 141 2025-26 141 - 141 2026-27 142 123 265 2027-28 142 123 265 2028-29 142 123 265 2029-30-2042 126 123 249 — Bulgartransgaz, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Csanadpalota GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 43 - 43 2025-26 46 - 46 2026-27 71 - 71 2027-28 13 - 142 2028-29 13 - 13 2029-30 5 73 78 2030-31 34 73 107 2031-32 34 73 107 2032-33-2039 63 73 136 — FGSZ, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Isaccea/Orlovka GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 109 - 109 2025-26 109 - 109 2026-27 109 - 109 2027-28 109 - 186 2028-29 109 77 186 2029-30-2039 97 77 174 — GTSOU, Transgaz; numbers rounded Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d
Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d
Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has nudged up its self-reported crude production capacity to 4.85mn b/d, from 4.65mn b/d previously. The UAE state energy giant did not formally announce the increase but updated the figure on its website. It did something similar when its capacity reached 4.65mn b/d in late 2023, up from 4.5mn b/d in the middle of last year. This latest hike takes the company a step closer to its long-term 5mn b/d crude capacity target, which it aims to reach by 2027. Adnoc set the 5mn b/d target back in 2018 when its capacity was 3.5mn b/d. At that time, the company said it was aiming to deliver the increase by 2030, but in November 2022 it brought the timeframe forward by three years, citing the "UAE's robust hydrocarbon reserves". The change in timeline had been expected, with sources telling Argus earlier that year that discussions had been taking place in the upper echelons of Adnoc about significantly accelerating its capacity growth plans . Given the speed at which the company has been delivering capacity gains over the past few years, and how close it is to meeting its target already, it is not inconceivable that Adnoc will reach 5mn b/d ahead of schedule. Put your best foot forward The UAE's rising capacity comes as Opec+ producers engage with independent agencies to update their respective crude output capacities for use in production policy decisions from 2025. At their meeting in June last year, all Opec+ members committed to undergo an external assessment of their sustainable capacities in the first half of 2024 by three independent consultancies, IHS, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad. The updated capacity assessment will help address a key criticism of the Opec+ production restraint agreements in their current format, namely that many of the countries involved have been cutting output from a baseline level of production that they can no longer actually deliver, in most cases due to natural decline. The UAE has been one of a handful of countries in the group that has been raising its capacity over the past few years. This means it should, in theory, benefit from the latest assessment, as a higher accepted capacity will afford it a higher production baseline under any Opec+ agreements struck from 2025 onwards. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits
Japan's trading firms see metals prices cutting profits
Tokyo, 2 May (Argus) — Major Japanese trading houses are expecting lower profits from their metals businesses during the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, mostly because of lower prices of commodities such as iron ore and coking coal . Japanese trading house Mitsui forecast profits for its metal and natural resource business falling by 14pc on the year to ¥290bn ($1.87bn) during 2024-25, primarily because of lower iron ore prices. Mitsui plans to cut iron ore output by 0.3pc on the year to 60.9mn t at its mining projects where the company owns production ri ghts or a production stake during 2024-25 . This includes the joint venture project Robe River in Australia with Australian iron ore producer Rio Tinto. Japanese trading house Sojitz also expects profits from its metal and natural resource business to decline to ¥35bn, down by 20pc on the year, mostly because of a bearish coking coal market. The company said its overall coal business can cut production costs during 2024-25, partly because it plans larger-scale output at the Gregory Crinum coking coal mine in Australia, without disclosing further details. But Sojitz said it cannot generate higher profits because of lower coking coal prices. The trading house expects the average coking coal price to fall to $230/t during 2024-25, according to the company's chief financial officer Makoto Shibuya, down by $57/t from a year earlier. The company reiterated that the price is not necessarily their selling price. Sumitomo expects profits from its natural resource business would remain flat at ¥72bn on the year, mostly as its nickel production in Madagascar recovers from the output cuts in 2023 , with an aim to produce 19,000t of nickel during 2024-25, up by 9.8pc on the year. A rebound in nickel production could offset possible losses from coal and coking coal prices falling to $266/t and $133/t respectively in the ordinary market, down by $21 and $9, according to the trading house. Sumitomo plans to increase coking coal production by 9.1pc to 1.2mn t but reduce coal output by 4.8pc to 4mn t during 2024-25. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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