Agreste cuts French wheat and corn estimates
French ministry agency Agreste has cut back its estimates for France's 2022-23 soft wheat crop in its October report after raising expectations in September, while corn production forecasts are expected to fall further.
French soft wheat production is now forecast at 33.69mn t on both lower yields and areas, representing a drop of 432,000t from September's estimates. This brings the country's wheat crop close to earlier expectations in August, before Agreste made a slight upwards revision in September.
Soft wheat yields remained higher on the year but areas were down by 6pc on the previous crop.
High yields in the north of France — yields in the region Hauts-de-France are more than a quarter above the national average — have lowered the protein content of an otherwise good-quality crop, but could allow export prices at ports of Rouen and Dunkerque to compete internationally as Black Sea prices rise.
In contrast, wheat for delivery to La Pallice in the west has this week showed a €7/t premium to ports further north. Local exporters are reportedly struggling to source wheat with a test weight high enough to meet buyer specifications, even though average protein content in the region is relatively high.
Corn projections could fall further
Agreste trimmed its corn forecast to 11.44mn t, compared with 11.61mn t in last month's report, but remained out of step with other analysts expecting lower figures. Halfway into the harvest in late-September, Agreste pegged yields at their lowest since 2005, with irrigated corn yields falling 7pc below the five-year average and non-irrigated 16pc below.
The agency anticipates a further drop in corn production estimates as harvesting nears completion and the share diverted into silage becomes clear. The Europe-wide shortage of silage has already led some farmers to divert part of the corn crop and reduce the acreages for threshing.
Durum wheat, barley revised down, rapeseed unchanged
Agreste's latest forecasts pegged durum wheat at 1.35mn t, only marginally below its September's estimate, but down by 15pc on the year.
Similarly low production in the EU's other top durum producer Italy is due to further tighten global supply, with Canadian sellers reportedly stepping in to fill recent demand from Algeria.
Meanwhile on French barley, production estimates fell to 11.39mn t from 11.43mn t a month earlier, but remained only marginally below last year. Winter barley fared markedly better than the spring crop, which suffered heat stress and yielded a smaller crop in almost all regions.
In contrast, Agreste made little change to its 2022-23 production estimate for French rapeseed of 4.51mn t, which benefited from favourable weather and rose sharply on the year.
Recent wet weather in parts of Europe has also improved the outlook for next season's crop, according to Agreste, with rapeseed planting off to a particularly strong start. That said, dry soil in northern parts of the continent and high humidity in southern Poland are unlikely to favour current planting.
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Heavy rainfall floods Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
Heavy rainfall floods Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
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Brazil hydroelectric dam bursts under record rains
Brazil hydroelectric dam bursts under record rains
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Canada rail strike to affect grains, industry says
Canada rail strike to affect grains, industry says
London, 3 May (Argus) — Strike action by workers at Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could have significant repercussions for the country's grains market, according to industry body the Grain Growers of Canada (GGC). Members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference authorised a strike on 1 May. Industrial action at the two major Canadian railroad companies could begin as early as 22 May. The parties have now entered a mandatory period of mediation. The GGC has called for a resolution to be reached in this period that safeguards Canada's grains supply chain. Canadian grain trade operations are particularly dependant on rail logistics, with the vast majority of grain from producing regions transported to ports by rail — 94pc of all Canadian grain is transported by rail, according to the GGC. Disrupted logistics could limit grain storage capacity, which could result in less stock available for export and curb selling by farmers. This could cause importers to seek alternative grains origins. Members are "worried about the impact a strike would have [...] on Canada's reputation as a reliable supplier", the GGC said. "Consecutive supply chain disruptions have already strained our relationships with international buyers. Another stoppage could drive them to seek other markets, affecting us in the long term," GGC's second vice chair Brendan Phillips said. In the high-protein wheat market — one of Canada's major agricultural exports — buyers may turn to US-origin Hard Red Spring wheat as an alternative, traders in both regions told Argus . This could have a significant effect on the market. "In June 2023, Canada exported over 2.6mn t of grain, highlighting the potential economic loss of over $35mn for each day in June that a strike persists," the GGC said. That said, wheat exports accounted for around 1.7mn t of this volume, Argus -aggregated data show. Canada's wheat exports have increased significantly ahead of the long-term average pace in 2024, surpassing 2023 levels by 710,000t in the week to 28 April. Remaining stocks of the 2023-24 wheat crop are low, according to market participants, and with the winter wheat harvest not scheduled to begin until July, low stocks could shelter Canada's wheat market to some extent. By Megan Evans Canadian wheat (excl. durum) exports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
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