Viewpoint: US coke output to rise next year

Spanish Market: Petroleum coke
23/12/22

Overall US coke production is expected to rise next year but will skew towards high-sulphur coke output, potentially offering support for low- and mid-sulphur coke pricing.

US coke production through September totaled 30.12mn t, according to the most recent Energy Information Administration data. And with monthly output averaging 3.35mn t, the US may finish out the year with 40.2mn t produced, an increase of 7pc from 2021 totals and the highest production since 2019. Refinery rates are expected to remain elevated in 2023, market participants said.

Full-year output in 2023 is poised to increase on the year, with Valero on pace to complete a 55,000 b/d coker expansion project in the first half at its 335,000 b/d Port Arthur, Texas, refinery. This will add about 750,000t in annual coking capacity, according to estimates from Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. The group's forecasts and analyses are separate and independent of Argus' news and price assessment business.

The Valero project also will increase the refinery's heavy sour crude processing capacity, suggesting that the coker expansion may yield high-sulphur coke.

Other factors are expected to continue to increase the proportion of high-sulphur coke production. These include a shift to heavier crude slates at US Gulf coast refineries caused by changing feedstock availability and widening heavy sour-light sweet crude spreads.

A number of refineries that have historically been mainstays of US Gulf coast mid-sulphur coke output have swung to higher sulphur coke production, with one of the most recent being Valero's 215,000 b/d refinery in St Charles, Louisiana. St Charles is not anticipated to return to its previous production specifications any time soon, although the refinery is continuing to produce and segregate some mid-sulphur coke, market participants said.

ExxonMobil's 502,500 b/d refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, may also produce higher sulphur coke following a project to expand the refinery's crude slate, although the shift may not happen until 2024.

Chevron's clearance to resume importing Venezuelan crude provided a glimmer of hope that some US Gulf coast refineries may begin producing mid-sulphur coke once again. Some US Gulf coast refineries, like Phillips 66's 247,000 b/d refinery in Sweeny, Texas, produced mid-sulphur for years based on a Venezuelan-heavy crude slate, but have shifted to high-sulphur production after switching away from the Latin American supplies.

But Chevron's volumes from its joint venture in Venezuela have dwindled and its infrastructure there is in need of investment, leaving chances slim that crude from that country will increase mid-sulphur coke production any time soon.

Coking capacity to decline after 2023

Next year could be the last to post year-on-year increases in US coke output, with two refineries slated for closure by 2024. LyondellBasell's 268,000 b/d Houston refinery, which has in recent years produced high-sulphur coke, is scheduled to close by 31 December 2023, unless a buyer steps up to purchase the plant.

And one of the last remaining producers of 1.5-2pc sulphur coke in the country, Phillips 66's 120,000 b/d Rodeo refinery near San Francisco, California, will cease petroleum refining by early 2024 ahead of its shift to renewable fuels production, the company said. Phillips 66 will retain its permit to operate the refinery's 51,000 b/d delayed coker for the possibility of future use, although the unit will be idled, according to Contra Costa County's final environmental impact report.

By Delaney Ramirez

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

18/03/26

Indian cement makers brace for fuel price shocks

Singapore, 18 March (Argus) — Indian cement makers are back to their drawing boards to review fuel procurement strategy for new fiscal year starting 1 April after a surge in seaborne petroleum coke and coal prices brought on by the US-Iran war. India — the world's second largest cement market — is a key importer of high-sulphur coke from origins including the US and Saudi Arabia. Procurement teams usually finalise annual plans for the new fiscal in February, but executives are revisiting their estimates after the war created upheaval in supply chain and triggered rally in coke and coal prices. At around 30pc, fuel is the single largest input cost for cement producers. A jump in fuel costs typically pressures producers' margins unless they can fully pass on the increase in cement prices. Producers have faced challenges in raising cement prices in recent years due to large capacity additions and a fight for market share. Prices of coke, a key fuel used in cement making were largely stable in 2024 and 2025. The Argus -assessed delivered India price of 6.5pc coke averaged at around $107.91/t in 2024 and was marginally up at around $111.62/t in 2025. But the average year to date this year is much higher at $124.65/t, while the last assessment was at $145/t on 11 March. April-loading Supramax offers of this high-sulphur coke are being made at $155-160/t to India's west coast. The unexpected surge is making procurement teams review their budget plans for the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal. Procurement executives at leading cement makers said they had planned their fuel spend for next fiscal at an average price of $120-125/t basis on calorific value (CV) of 7,500 kcal/kg, which is the typical CV in coke. But most buyers now realise that the actual number for next fiscal could be significantly higher. "We have tweaked our fuel planning since the war started. We increased our term position of US Northern Appalachian (NAPP) NAR 6,900 kcal/kg coal, raised lifting of domestic coal and trying to postpone booking of coke as much as possible," a cement procurement executive said. The budget exercise undertaken in February is being reworked, said an executive at another cement maker, adding that the share of domestic coal was not significant in the initial plan, but they now aim to use at least 25pc domestic coal in fuel mix, reducing coke burn. "Cement plants located closer to west coast of India are transporting coal from coal hubs in eastern states because there is enough incentive to do so," he said. Cement makers received 1.36mn t of domestic coal in February, up by about 85pc from a year earlier, coal ministry data show. Receipts rose by 43pc from 950,000t in January. Domestic coal prices are regulated and insulated from fluctuations in the seaborne market, allowing cement plants to replace imports. An extended weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar has also raised overall import costs, pushing plants to ramp up local sourcing. Indian cement makers imported 382,300t of coke in January, down by 55pc from a year earlier and by 51pc from December, according to shipbroker Interocean. Producers still need to blend coke in certain ratios to use local coal effectively. The removal of a 400 rupees/t ($4.33/t) levy on coal from September 2025 also encouraged producers to raise coal use, but this shift can become more pronounced after the war. Plants can switch between coal and coke depending on cost. "Fuel is a variable cost for cement, and our cost forecast is based on an estimated fuel price. If the variation is abnormal and on the higher side, it will be passed on in cement prices. We evaluated scope to increase domestic coal further after the war," said the fuel procurement head at a cement maker. Cement makers would look at ways to manage input costs, but the success will be limited and ultimately they must raise cement prices. Plants are not as panicked as they were after the Russian-Ukraine war that pushed delivered India coke prices to a record $270/t in early 2022 primarily because domestic coal is abundantly available, said a fuel trader. Supply side challenges in seaborne fuel High fuel price is not just the only problem for cement producers. Coke supply from middle east countries, the second largest source after the US, has been affected due to the war. Coke supplies and loading from the 460,000 b/d Aramco/TotalEnergies' Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jubail have stopped because vessels can only reach the refinery on the Mideast Gulf coast by traveling through the strait of Hormuz. Many vessel owners are afraid to transit though the strait because Iran has been attacking the vessels. Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco/Sinopec Yasref refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia continues to load but ship tracking data suggest some operators are concerned about a potential escalation in the Red Sea and are diverting away. Jubail and Yanbu each typically ship about 1.8mn t/yr of coke. At least one Indian cement producer and a non-cement buyer have term coke supply with Saudi Arabian refiners, while several cement makers buy spot Saudi coke. Meanwhile, supplies of NAPP coal, a preferred alternative to coke because of its high-CV, are limited. NAPP offers are scarce and indicated at about $150/t cfr on India's west coast, with at least two key producers lacking volumes to load until May, according to a Dubai-based coal trader. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian cement firms increase domestic coal use in Feb

16/03/26

Indian cement firms increase domestic coal use in Feb

Singapore, 16 March (Argus) — Domestic thermal coal supplies to Indian cement makers rose sharply in February, both year on year and month on month, as producers expanded their coal consumption to benefit from its cost advantage amid a surge in seaborne petroleum coke and coal prices. Cement makers received 1.36mn t of domestic coal in February, up by about 85pc from a year earlier, coal ministry data show. Receipts rose by almost 29pc on the year to 9.6mn t in April 2025-February 2026 — the first eleven months of India's April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year. Receipts rose by 43pc from 950,000t in January, even though the month had fewer working days. Domestic coal prices are regulated and largely insulated from fluctuations in the seaborne market. Meanwhile, delivered prices for seaborne coke rose sharply, prompting producers to increase their use of domestic coal. The Argus -assessed index for 6.5pc-sulphur coke delivered India averaged $124.25/t in February, up by $6.63/t from January, primarily due to an increase in fob prices. The cfr India 6.5pc coke market was last assessed at $145/t on 11 March. Cfr offers of US high-sulphur coke jumped sharply after the US-Iran war disrupted supplies of Saudi coke and pushed up freight rates. Trades for April-loading high-sulphur US coke on Supramax vessels have been scarce so far, but offers have been indicated at more than $150/t for India's west coast. Offers of US Northern Appalachian NAR 6,900 kcal/kg coal — a preferred alternative to coke — have also been scarce, but a Panamax cargo likely sold to an Indian cement maker for end-of-April loading at $145/t cfr — although the port of delivery was not known and this trade could not be immediately verified. Higher prices and reduced availability could push Indian cement makers to continue to look for cheaper fuel alternatives, including domestic coal. The removal of a 400 rupees/t ($4.33/t) levy on coal from September has further encouraged coal use. And higher domestic coal availability has enabled cement plants to increase coal's share in their fuel mix, while reducing imports. Plants can switch between coal and coke depending on cost. Indian cement makers imported just 382,300t of coke in January, down by 55pc from a year earlier and by 51pc from December, according to shipbroker Interocean. Firm cfr prices and offers of seaborne coke have prompted many cement plants to increase their domestic coal intake, although producers still need to blend coke in certain ratios to use local coal effectively. "We have started using a good amount of domestic coal in our plants and this has helped us offset the impact of the rise in coke prices," leading cement maker Nuvoco Vistas managing director Jayakumar Krishnaswamy told investors in January. Nuvoco Vistas cut its coke use to 41pc in October-December from 48pc in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Indian coal supplies to non-power consumers, such as cement plants and steel mills, increased in the first eleven months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, because of higher availability and lower demand from coal-fired power plants. Higher domestic coal supply to cement plants and a partial replacement of coke use limited India's overall appetite for imported coke last year. Indian cement makers imported 10.67mn t of coke from origins including the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, down slightly from 10.83mn t a year earlier, according Interocean. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia may step up Yanbu coke loading

11/03/26

Saudi Arabia may step up Yanbu coke loading

Singapore, 11 March (Argus) — The Saudi Aramco/Sinopec Yasref refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, is looking to maximise petroleum coke exports this month after Satorp, Aramco's other joint venture refinery in Jubail, halted shipments because of Iranian attacks on vessels in the region. A Chinese trader has a tender closing on Wednesday for a high-sulphur Supramax coke cargo loading in Yanbu at the end of March. The sale is for delivery outside of China and is likely to sell to India. Offers for coke shipments from the 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery that have already loaded and are on the water have surged because of the supply tightness. One Chinese buyer received an offer for a prompt Yanbu cargo at $270/t cfr China last week. Chinese buyers had been negotiating this material in the low-$170s/t before the war. Another buyer received an offer for a floating cargo of Yanbu coke that is scheduled to arrive in China in late March at $205/t cfr. The Yanbu port is on Saudi Arabia's western border with access to the Red Sea, the other side of the country from where Iran has been attacking vessels and energy infrastructure. Loading from Yanbu — at least so far — has not been interrupted by the war, and at least two cargoes have arrived to load coke since the war started on 28 February, a market participant said. Yanbu typically ships out 1.8mn t/yr of coke, mainly to China and India. A roughly equal amount comes from the 460,000 b/d Aramco/TotalEnergies' Satorp refinery in Jubail each year. But the war has disrupted coke supplies and loading from Jubail, because vessels can only reach the refinery on the Mideast Gulf coast by traveling through the strait of Hormuz. Many vessel owners are afraid to transit though the strait because Iran has been attacking these ships . At least one Jubail cargo that was supposed to arrive in India in March is likely stuck in the Mideast Gulf because of the war, said an Indian cement buyer. Data from ship tracking service Kpler do show that one vessel, the Ksl Laiyang , managed to safely exit the strait after loading coke at Jubail on 5 March, possibly because it displayed "China Owner & Crew" as its destination, a tactic other ships have also used . But even though some vessels that were already stuck in the Gulf could take the risk to move out, no vessels are likely to accept new charters to Jubail for at least the next two to three months, a trader said. Freight rates have shot up for all seaborne routes, including from Yanbu, and are helping to push up delivered prices on an India and China basis. Additional war risk premium (AWRP) rates in the Mideast Gulf surged to around 1pc of hull and machinery value in the immediate days after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began, up from 0.15–0.2pc of hull and machinery the week before. Bunker prices have also surged, increasing freight costs, and bunker availability is more limited in places like Singapore, posing more of a challenge to long-haul ships. Yanbu may not remain a safe option . Yemen-based Houthi militants have expressed support for Iran and had been attacking vessels in the Red Sea last year. A return of these attacks is "likely to be a case of when not if", said Elisabeth Kendall, chair of the Yemen-based think tank Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies. Ship tracking data suggest some operators are already concerned about a potential escalation in the Red Sea and are diverting away. In addition to raising cfr offers for Yanbu, the Mideast Gulf disruption is also supporting offer prices for US Gulf high-sulphur coke cargoes. Argus assessed cfr India 6.5pc sulphur coke up by $5/t to a more than 27-month high of $134/t on 4 March, the first week of the war. Offers have since been scarce, with sellers struggling to secure firm freight rates from vessel owners because of the surge in bunker rates and high AWRP. But some traders are indicating that offers of US high-sulphur coke Supramax can not be made below $150/t cfr on India's west coast. India received 13.7mn t of coke in 2025, of which 7.3mn t came from the US, while Saudi Arabia was the second largest source at almost 2.4mn t, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. The US and Saudi Arabia primarily supply high-sulphur coke to India that mostly goes into cement making. By Ajay Modi and Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

War supply shock further boosts coke prices

04/03/26

War supply shock further boosts coke prices

Washington, 4 March (Argus) — Petroleum coke prices jumped this week because the war in the Mideast Gulf raised freight rates and heavy crude costs and threatened to choke off Saudi Arabian fuel-grade supply for an unknown period. Prices on an fob US Gulf basis had already been moving up for three consecutive weeks as of the last assessment on 25 February. A trader was heard to have purchased a cargo in the latter half of last week, before the US and Isreal launched strikes on Iran on 28 February, at slightly below $90/t. This was about $5/t above the Argus fob US Gulf 6.5pc sulphur assessment on 25 February. Activity was relatively light, since many in the US Gulf market were awaiting an upcoming industry conference next week for an opportunity for face-to-face dealmaking. Many were also looking for the final index price for February to calculate their term contract costs for March-loading cargoes. But with the news over the weekend of war breaking out in the Mideast Gulf, "everyone is worried to remain short", a trader said. A second trader reported he had turned down a firm bid in the mid-$90s/t fob, suggesting the market has jumped by more than $10/t from the last assessment. But another said that traders turning down these fixed price bids does not necessarily mean the market is higher than that. It rather reflects caution, as their costs are index-linked with significant premiums in a period of high volatility. If the March index rises to the mid-$90s/t, many traders will have to pay refiners nearly $100/t for cargoes loading next month under their term contracts. "A lot don't want to sell fixed right now," the third trader said. "It's kind of a wait and see game. Right now is not the time to buy something if you don't have to." "It's bad if someone needs to buy this week or next week," a fourth trader said. But this trader thought many would be able to take a step back and wait to see if the situation is quickly resolved and supply normalizes. "Honestly, I think this will scare away the market," the fourth trader said. Indian buyers have largely been staying out of the market for weeks, as coke prices have been expensive compared with coal. But some may have to buy soon if they cannot fully supply their needs with domestic coke and coal and seaborne coal supply. Seaborne coal prices have also jumped since 2 March on energy supply fears, especially since QatarEnergy halted LNG production and gas prices spiked. The TTF day ahead natural gas price spiked by 66pc between 27 February and Tuesday to €53.30/MWh, although it dipped back down to €46.85/MWh by Wednesday. Higher bunker prices also raised freight rates, and market participants said it is difficult to get shipowners to quote freight, especially to west coast India, which is close to the conflict region. The ultimate effect on coke prices will depend on how long coal prices remain strong and whether there is a significant disruption in Saudi Arabian coke supply. Vessels looking to reach the Aramco/TotalEnergies' Satorp refinery in Jubail, which typically ships about 1.5mn-1.8mn t/yr of coke to China and India, must ship travel through the strait of Hormuz. Supply has already been tight in the US Gulf because of lower refinery output. The US Energy Information Administration reported record low annual production last year, even below Covid-19-impacted 2021. This was partly because of permanent refinery closures, but also a narrower light-heavy crude differential that shifted producers away from the types of crude that produce higher volumes of coke. While refiners had said they expected to run heavier slates this year, those plans were formulated before the war blocked heavy crude exports from the Mideast Gulf region. Light sweet WTI crude's premium to WCS Hardisty narrowed to $13.51/bl on 2 March, its tightest level since late December 2025, and heavy sour grades generally strengthened compared with light sweet. Fuel-grade petroleum coke exports from other origins that supplement US supply, like Venezuela and Mexico, have also been low so far this year. Venezuelan coke exports slowed after the US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January, and congestion at a Mexican port has also cut shipments from that supplier. The million-dollar question is, ‘What to ask for April?'", another trader said. By Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New US 10pc tariff goes into effect

24/02/26

New US 10pc tariff goes into effect

Washington, 24 February (Argus) — A new 10pc tariff on US imports from all countries went into effect on Tuesday, replacing the emergency tariffs imposed last year that the Supreme Court struck down on 20 February. The new tariff will exempt energy, critical minerals, fertilizers and certain agricultural imports. It will also exempt imports eligible for duty-free treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. The 10pc tariff will not be added on top of existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, copper, cars and auto parts. President Donald Trump on 20 February invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Expansion Act to impose the 10pc tariff. A day later, Trump posted on his social media platform that he would raise the rate to 15pc, but the social media post does not have legal force. The US will assess the Section 122 duty at the 10pc level, the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency said late on Monday. The law cited by Trump allows him to maintain the 10pc tariff for a period of 150 days, unless the US Congress authorizes an extension. CBP also said it will stop collecting the invalidated emergency tariffs effective on Tuesday. The agency said it was ready to "implement current and any forthcoming executive actions as directed by the president" with regard to refunding an estimated $175bn in tariffs the US Supreme Court said were imposed unlawfully. Trump said he is expecting a years-long court fight over refunds. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argus Carbon

Benchmarks de precios del carbono, noticias sobre políticas y proyectos, y análisis exhaustivos, a diario.

Informe Argus Low Carbon Hydrogen Strategy

Tercera parte: América del Norte Un análisis en profundidad de los sectores, países y políticas claves que permiten el crecimiento del hidrógeno.

Argus Hydrogen and Future Fuels

El punto de vista global sobre el hidrógeno y los mercados de productos derivados.

Argus LNG Daily

Acceda a las últimas evaluaciones del precio al contado de GNL, noticias del mercado y análisis independientes.

Argus North American Natural Gas Forward Curves

Herramienta de valoración de mercado independiente para respaldar las decisiones de inversión y negociación en los mercados de gas natural de Norteamérica.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more