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NorthAm could lose 900,000 vehicles in '23

  • Spanish Market: Coking coal, Crude oil, Metals
  • 10/01/23

North American automotive production losses could total 900,000 vehicles in 2023 as semiconductor and other parts shortages continue to hamper the industry.

The estimate is the first given by AutoForecast Solutions in the new year, with the company marking the planned production of more than 900,000 vehicles in the region as at-risk.

European production could fall by nearly 800,000 vehicles, while the rest of Asia outside of China could lose production of more than 700,000 vehicles. China is expected to lose the production of nearly 200,000 vehicles.

The North American region is estimated to have lost the production of 3.29mn vehicles since January 2021, when semiconductor shortages began to curtail production in the region. Europe is estimated to have lost 2.62mn vehicles, China 1.13mn, and the rest of Asia 1.12mn vehicles.

By Rye Druzin

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23/12/25

Viewpoint: New mines to raise BHP, Rio iron ore grades

Viewpoint: New mines to raise BHP, Rio iron ore grades

Sydney, 23 December (Argus) — UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto expects production from its new Simandou mine in Guinea to lift its overall iron ore grades in the coming years, while the ramp-up of fellow resources firm BHP's Samarco mine in Brazil could produce similar results. Rio Tinto's average realised iron ore grade fell to a decade low of about 60.5pc this year, data from its 2025 Capital Markets Day presentation show. But the company expects the high-grade Simandou mine in Guinea to increase its average product ore grades to around 61.7pc by 2032. The company downgraded the specification of its Pilbara Blend fines ore from 61.6pc Fe to 60.8pc Fe in May. It also increased its sales of lower-grade SP10 ore, which has lower iron and higher impurity levels, over 2024. BHP is in a similar situation to Rio Tinto. The company's typical Australian ore grades have declined over recent years, dropping below 62pc Fe. But increased production at the higher-grade Samarco operations in 2025 likely supported its overall ore grades. BHP has not announced any longer-term ore grade forecasts. But a planned increase in its Samarco production, which it expects to average 67pc Fe in the current financial year, is likely to boost grades. Simandou Rio Tinto opened Simandou in November and shipped its first load of ore in early December. It will increase production at the site to 60mn t/yr — equivalent to about 18pc of its 2024 Western Australian ore output — by 2028. The company expects to sell 5mn-10mn t of high-grade ore from the mine in 2026, before ramping up production to 60mn t/yr by 2028. Simandou will account for about 15pc of Rio Tinto's total output at that stage, with production from the company's increasingly mid-grade Pilbara mines and Canadian plants accounting for the rest. Samarco BHP aims to produce 7mn-7.5mn t of 67pc Fe ore pellets at Samarco during the 2025-2026 financial year to 30 June, before ramping up capacity to 30mn t/yr by 2028. The company's entire equity-basis production growth in July-September came from Samarco. It produced 2.1mn t of ore over the quarter, up from 1.3mn t a year earlier. The Samarco ramp-up should lift BHP's average iron ore grade over the next few years, despite the Pilbara grade declines. Samarco will also diversify BHP's customer base. Close to 90pc of its major Australian iron ore shipments went to China in 2024, estimates from marine tracking platform Kpler show, making it vulnerable to economic and policy changes in the country. But Samarco's 2024 sales were split between the Middle East and Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. A third of the mine's customers were in the Americas, with another quarter in Africa and the Middle East, according to Samarco's 2024 financial statement. Grade gains BHP and Rio Tinto offset grade declines at their Pilbara mines in 2025 by selling more lump and fewer fines . This has helped the companies maintain stable realised prices despite falling iron ore grades. But this trend is being driven by what are potentially temporary demand-side factors. Chinese steelmakers began to favour lower-grade lump this year because of concerns about sintering restrictions. This is not guaranteed to continue. Instead, Rio Tinto and BHP's overseas mines could provide a more stable path to offsetting grade declines than increasing lump sales, given uncertainty over demand. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chile watchdog clears SQM-Codelco deal

22/12/25
22/12/25

Chile watchdog clears SQM-Codelco deal

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general's office (CGR) formally acknowledged on 19 December the legality of lithium mining contracts between the country's economic development firm Corfo and a planned joint venture between Codelco and SQM, clearing the way for the partnership to proceed with conditions. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing state-owned miner Codelco to partner with private company SQM to mine lithium in the Atacama desert under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Even though it acknowledged the legality of the transaction, CGR imposed a set of conditions that need to be resolved before the deal can be finalized, all of which must happen before 31 December. The acknowledgement comes after Corfo withdrew and resubmitted a legal resolution that CGR flagged for inconsistencies on early December. CGR said the effectiveness of the approved contracts hinges on Codelco submitting documentation related to the creation of its lithium subsidiary, Minera Tarar, for retroactive legal review. CGR noted that the Codelco-SQM joint-venture agreement includes a clause tying its closing to a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation into SQM being "substantially finished," a condition the watchdog said must be waived or modified for the deal to proceed. Corfo and Codelco must send proof to CGR by year-end proving that they complied with all conditions imposed by the watchdog. The CGR has also set some ongoing guardrails to the deal, including a mechanism that ensures Codelco — under the national lithium strategy — remains the majority owner and controller of the Atacama lithium assets unless the watchdog approves a change of ownership. It also said that payments to regional government bodies must follow strict standards and may be audited. SQM-Codelco joint-venture moves forward By acknowledging the deal's legality, the CGR paves the way for the joint venture between Chilean private company SQM and state-owned Codelco to move to its closing stages, pending the resolution of the watchdog's conditions. CGR's approval was the last necessary external sign-off needed for the agreement to materialize, according to Codelco. Chile's exiting economy minister Nicolas Gráu celebrated CGR's nod, saying that it will play a big part in "allowing Chile to double lithium production in the next decade". Codelco said it will now move forward with SQM to finalize the joint-venture, an indication that it will meet and work to resolve all of CGR's conditions. The state-owned miner said that only the final legal and administrative steps are left for the deal to close. The partnership agreement, which will allow both companies to extract lithium from the Atacama salt flats from 1 January 2031 to 31 December 2060, has been undergoing a lengthy approval process since May 2023. Eight countries and over 20 Chilean regulatory bodies signed off on the deal. CGR is still performing an audit on "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco tie-up , including Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. It will also review claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. If the CGR identifies legal issues in its audit, it can order corrective measures, seek internal disciplinary action within the parties and refer its findings to prosecutors, though it lacks the authority to void the deal, leaving full responsibility with SQM and Codelco to finalize the partnership. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025

22/12/25
22/12/25

Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazilian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined throughout 2025, despite solid economic growth and steady demand in most sectors, with prices ending the year lower because of pricing competition between domestic and imported HRC. Argus - assessed imported HRC cfr Brazil dropped to $515-550/metric tonne (t) on 11 December, down from $535-555/t on 2 January. Argus -assessed HRC ex-works fell to R3,600-3,900/t ($655.80-702.80/t) in the latest assessment compared with R4,000-4,300/t at the start of the year. Brazilian mills resisted pressure from a rising influx of lower-priced imports stemming from an oversupply in China, holding prices steady for the first five months of the year. But mills yielded to price cuts in June, when price spreads were as much as 38pc higher than imports. Buyers were able to secure deals below R3,400/t in July, market participants told Argus . Tighter safeguard measures around the world and anti-dumping actions targeting Chinese material helped redirect steel to countries with looser trade defenses, including Brazil. Imports hit an all-time high of 6mn t in the year through Novembe r , up by 7pc from the same period last year, industry chamber Aço Brasil said. These volumes added to domestic production and boosted apparent consumption — the sum of production and imports minus exports — by 2.5pc to 24.8mn t year-to-date November. Service centers and trading companies took advantage of the lower import prices to build up their inventories. High stock levels ultimately weighed on demand and dragged down offer levels. Domestic and import sellers were forced to slash prices in June to spur buying interest in an already oversupplied market. Import HRC prices slipped below $500/t in July. Sales up The Brazilian real strengthened by 14.2pc against the dollar year-to-date mid-December, boosting import competitiveness for 2025. Imports offered another advantage beyond pricing: lower financial costs from international trading firms. Brazilian mills rarely operate on credit, and even if they did, borrowing costs in Brazil reached their highest level in 20 years in 2025. Brazil's 15pc target interest rate, which spurs higher commercial lending rates, has dampened end-user demand, but not enough to slow steel consumption significantly. Despite the rising import flows, domestic sales remained stable on the year at 19mn t year-to-date November, Aço Brasil said. Full-year 2025 domestic sales are expected to match the high-21mn t level of a year earlier, which was the highest since a demand surge during the pandemic. Brazil's gross domestic product grew by an annualized 2.7pc through September, Brazil's statistics bureau IBGE said, on track to beat the central bank's full-year growth forecast of 2.25pc. The solid economic growth has supported steel demand, especially in the construction and automotive sectors. Real estate construction starts jumped to 307,366 units year-to-date September, up by 8.4pc compared with the same period in 2024, the Brazilian construction industry chamber (CBIC) said. Real estate sales rose 4pc to 312,240 properties over the same period, CBIC data show. The Minha Casa Minha Vida low-income housing program accounted for nearly half of both sales and new units. Brazil produced 2.46mn vehicles in January-November, up by 4.1pc year-on-year, automaker association Anfavea said. Registrations rose 1.4pc to 2.1mn units over the same period, while automobile exports surged by 39pc to 510,130 units, driven by higher shipments to Argentina, Colombia and Chile. The annual drop in HRC prices in Brazil was driven less by demand and more by fierce competition between domestic producers and import suppliers, which pushed prices lower despite stable consumption. Brazilian HRC prices are expected to remain under pressure in early 2026 as high inventories and competitive import offers persist, a trader said. A modest recovery is expected in the second half of the year, depending on stronger domestic demand and potential trade defense measures, market participants told Argus . By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US shale firms see subdued spending next year

22/12/25
22/12/25

US shale firms see subdued spending next year

New York, 22 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump took to prime-time TV this week to reassure voters that 2026 will see a stronger economy, but US shale executives see little prospect of an imminent upturn in their business. US oil and gas firms plan to keep capital spending flat to slightly lower next year, according to a closely watched survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as the industry grapples with lower oil prices. Although activity edged lower in the fourth quarter, uncertainty grew and companies remained increasingly wary about future prospects in the poll of 131 executives from Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana that was carried out earlier this month. "Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm's wells uneconomic," one exploration and production (E&P) executive said. "Capital efficiencies and returns drive our investment decisions," another respondent said. "If economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026." The muted outlook for spending next year comes as producers have adopted a wait-and-see approach in recent months, given an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop, with crude prices trading near four-year lows this week on fears of global oversupply. A number of shale operators have posted higher-than-expected production this year. At the same time, spending has come in below expectations as drilling operations become more efficient, a trend UK bank Barclays says could be repeated in 2026. The executives who took part in the Dallas Fed survey gave varied responses when asked about their spending plans for next year depending on their size. Large producers — or those with output of 10,000 b/d or more — were more likely to say they expect capital expenditure to remain close to this year's levels. The most selected response among smaller firms — with production under 10,000 b/d — was for a slight increase. Although there are more small firms in the US, the larger companies account for more than 80pc of total US output. When asked about the oil price they were using for capital planning in 2026, the average response among executives was $59/bl for WTI. That was down from the $68/bl average price for the US benchmark that firms planned to use this year. The Dallas Fed said it was not necessarily a surprise that companies were not planning to trim spending further given weaker oil prices. Capital-intensive care "Oil and gas is a capital-intensive business," the bank's senior business economist, Kunal Patel, said. "It takes a lot of money to sustain the wells, even to keep production flat, and so that's why I don't think you're seeing as many people looking to significantly cut." Also, the prices that companies are using to plan next year's budgets are not too far from current breakeven levels. And producers may yet respond with deeper cuts to spending if prices tumble again. Oil and natural gas production was relatively unchanged in the fourth quarter, the survey showed, while costs rose at a slower pace than in the previous three months. "While oil prices have not been low enough this quarter to force a substantial cutback in activity, they were not high enough to support any growth either," Dallas Fed assistant vice-president Michael Plante said. In its annual E&P spending survey, Barclays expects upstream capital expenditure in North America to fall by 5pc in 2026, on lower US activity, reduced reinvestment ratios, and the impact of drilling and well completion efficiencies. That would mark its third consecutive annual decline. Barclays also revised down this year's upstream spending forecast to a decline of 5pc, from an initial estimate of a 3pc drop. The change was driven by further US rig count losses after Opec+ started to ramp up supplies, as well as the hit from Trump's tariff wars. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s oil sands to demonstrate durability in 2026

22/12/25
22/12/25

Canada’s oil sands to demonstrate durability in 2026

Calgary, 22 December (Argus) — Canadian oil sands heavyweights will show durability in 2026 with modest production gains in a lower oil price environment, while tempting investors with bigger, longer-term plans at a time of renewed interest in pipeline projects. Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor and Imperial Oil plan to pump out a combined 3.9mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2026, with 75pc of that focused on Alberta's oil sands region. Production gains among the Calgary-based firms will be 1-4pc, with CNRL and Cenovus leading the charge after sizeable acquisitions but also internal growth that has been years in the making. CNRL will push output to a record 1.6mn boe/d across 2026 after becoming sole owner in the 315,000 Albian oil sands mines in Alberta following an asset swap with Shell. The additional bitumen production also simplifies operations for the country's largest oil producer, which can now share trucks and personnel across its oil sands mines, which also includes its fully owned Horizon project. For its part, Horizon skipped a turnaround in 2025 to add 28,000 b/d of production, part of a growing theme of trimming downtime in the oil sands. Meanwhile, Cenovus seems poised to be the second Canadian operator to surpass 1mn boe/d with the upper end of its 2026 guidance just 15,000 boe/d shy of that mark. Boosted by two major acquisitions of cross-town rivals and sizeable organic growth, Cenovus will have doubled production since 2020 when output stood at 471,000 boe/d. It closed on its C$8.6bn ($6.1bn) purchase of MEG Energy in November to bring another 110,000 b/d into its fold, with plans to grow that to 150,000 b/d by 2028. Cenovus five years ago swallowed Husky Energy in a deal to increase its downstream and upstream exposure in Canada and abroad. And the company recently completed a three-year growth investment cycle and expects roughly 100,000 b/d of new production, also by 2028, at Sunrise, Lloydminster and West White Rose in Atlantic Canada combined. Capital spending for the four largest oil sands producers will climb to $14bn in 2026, up by 5pc from 2025, led by CNRL and Cenovus eyeing future growth. Endurance runners The production and spending plans come against a backdrop of global oversupply, highlighting oil sands operators' ability to not only weather, but grow, in a lower oil price environment with their suite of long-life, low-decline assets. Cenovus said its oil sands operating costs will be only $9/bl in 2026, while CNRL in another metric reports its corporate breakeven, including dividends, is just above $40/bl. In other words, oil sands producers would still have breathing space should WTI fall to the $51/bl predicted by the US Energy Information Administration in 2026 . But beyond 2026, an export pipeline capacity crunch is forecast to unfold from the third quarter of 2028 and that could put pressure on domestic prices, according to US bank TD Cowen. Trans Mountain and Enbridge plan for expansions to come on line in mid-to-late 2027, delaying the potential bottleneck by a year. Operators across the basin may be eyeing more growth but may not be ready to accelerate those plans until confidence grows on takeaway capacity. Acquisitions of producing assets may offer more assurance of that. "It's easier to grow by buying. If you grow organically, you pull that egress time forward," TD Cowen's managing director of institutional equity research, Menno Hulshof, said. CNRL has also outlined several projects it may pursue in the longer term, with front-end work due to start in 2026, potentially to unlock up to 260,000 b/d of new capacity between three oil sands projects. Significant output could come on line from 2030, and Alberta's recently proposed 1mn b/d pipeline to the Pacific will be key to an investment revival in the province. By Brett Holmes Oil sands capex guidance ($bn) 2026 2025 ±% 2026/25 CNRL 4.6 4.2 9 Cenovus 3.7 3.5 7 Suncor 4.1 4.2 -2 Imperial Oil 1.5 1.4 5 — company budgets Oil sands production guidance (boe/d) Oil sands Other Total ±% 2026/25 CNRL 867,500 752,500 1,620,000 3 Cenovus 767,500 197,500 965,000 4 Suncor 797,500 57,500 855,000 1 Imperial Oil 450,500 0 450,500 4 — company 2026 budgets Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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