India’s May auto sales, output rise but exports dip

Spanish Market: Metals
14/06/23

Indian automobile sales and output increased in May because of higher demand in all segments, but exports continued to remain lower given weaker international demand.

Sales rose by 18pc on the year to 1.85mn units in May, while production increased by 8.1pc from a year earlier to 2.12mn units, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam).

Passenger vehicles sales rose by 14pc on the year to 334,247 units in May, while three-wheeler sales climbed by 70pc against the previous year to 48,732 units and two-wheeler sales by 17pc on the year to 1.47mn units, according to Siam.

Automobile production increased by 5.8pc on the year to 4.08mn during April-May, the first two months of the 2023-24 fiscal year, while sales picked up by 17pc compared to the previous year to 3.47mn. The Indian steel industry gets 8-10pc of its demand from the automobile sector.

The double-digit growth in all segments is expected to continue, supported by the prevalent economic environment, Siam president Vinod Aggarwal said.

Total automobile exports dropped by 22pc on the year to 339,132 units in May, with two-wheeler exports declining by 25pc to 259,945 units over the same period. Automobile exports declined by 28pc on the year to 661,649 units during April-May, Siam data show.

Total automobile sales by dealers across the country rose by 10pc on the year to 2.02mn units in May, and by 17pc on the month, data from the India Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (Fada) show. May witnessed an increased penetration of electric vehicles, accounting for 8pc of total sales, the association said.

"Two-wheeler sales were positively influenced by the marriage season and the anticipated changes in faster adoption of manufacturing of electric vehicles (Fame) subsidies, set to be effective from June, which drove higher sales of two-wheeler electric vehicles," Fada said.

But seasonal factors such as weather-induced reductions in walk-in purchases, inventory pressures and regulatory norms would keep demand in check in the near term, according to Fada.

By Sumita Layek

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18/12/25

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, according to the government's first monthly report following a federal shutdown that led to no data reported for October. The consumer price index (CPI) in November rose by 2.7pc from a year earlier, the smallest gain since July and down from 3pc in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday. The BLS did not collect survey data for October due to a lapse in appropriations because of the 43-day federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November. President Donald Trump sacked the BLS director in August after labor market revisions revealed unexpected job losses in prior months. "November's CPI data have to be treated cautiously, given that CPI data collection resumed only on the 14th after the end of the shutdown," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report. CME's FedWatch tool after the report showed a 26.6pc chance the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate in January, up from 24.4pc on Wednesday. The Fed last week cut its target rate by a quarter point, the third such reduction this year, and penciled in only one such cut next year and in 2027. So called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, slowed to a 2.6pc annual pace in November from 3pc in September. Services less energy services, a measure of core services inflation, rose by 3pc in November compared with a 3.5pc gain in September. The energy index rose by 4.2pc on the year, up from a 2.8pc gain in September, BLS said. The gasoline index rose by an annual 0.9pc in November compared with a 0.5pc decline in September. The fuel oil index rose by 11.3pc in November, surging from a 4.1pc gain in September, and the energy services index rose by 7.4pc in November, accelerating from a 6.4pc gain in September. The shelter index rose by 3pc in November, slowing from 3.6pc in September New vehicles rose by 0.6pc in November while used vehicles rose by 3.6pc. The food index rose on the year by 2.6pc in November following a 3.1pc gain in September. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by 4.7pc in November. Medical care services rose by 3.3pc in November after a 3.9pc gain in September. Household furnishings and decorations, which are affected by import tariffs, rose by 4.6pc after a 4.1pc gain in September. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

18/12/25

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

London, 18 December (Argus) — Some traders are starting to offer imported hot-rolled coil at varying discounts to Argus ' benchmark north EU HRC index inclusive of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), suggesting they do not believe they will have to pay default values for the material. One trader was this week offering Indian HRC at a discount of €10/t to the monthly average of the Argus index for May 2026. Indian fixed-price cfr offers are around €470/t, while April is currently trading around €665/t on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract, for which Argus ' index is the cash-settlement basis. This suggests the trader believes it will not have to pay default values for the material; India's default value of 4.7t and the relevant benchmark of 1.37 would imply a CBAM cost of almost €270/t and an all-in cost of €740/t, assuming a carbon price of €80/t. Another trader reportedly offered Indonesian material at a steeper discount to the index for April arrival. Indonesia's default value of over 9t, against the benchmark of 1.37/t, would imply a carbon cost alone of over €617/t, suggesting it also assumes it will not pay the default value. The mill in question has informed market participants its direct emissions intensity is around 1.2t. The offers suggest, unsurprisingly, traders expect CBAM costs to be factored into the domestic market price, as reflected by Argus ' index. They also suggest traders believe domestic material will retain a premium to imports: at a recent Eurometal conference in Dusseldorf, some buyers suggested domestic material from one or two mills may in effect become the marginal tonne, as CBAM increases import costs. Increased complexity in importing — predominantly driven by CBAM and revisions to the EU safeguard — is steadily pushing the market towards buying on delivered duty paid terms, meaning buyers run no duty risk. This is typically being absorbed by traders. Most ddp offers have risen in recent weeks, in response to a flurry of leaked CBAM documents. Traders had been offering around €570/t ddp a few weeks back, but these offers have now mainly climbed to €600-620t ddp, reflecting more prohibitive default values and an expectation that prices will rise in the first quarter, enabling traders to book more profit. There was an offer reported yesterday at €585/t ddp Antwerp from Asia for April-May. The origin of the material was unclear, but some said it was from Vietnam. The rise in ddp offer volumes and prices has led to an increase in trading on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract in the last week or two. A 15,000t deal traded on 16 December for the fourth quarter of 2026 at €684/t, which derivatives traders said was likely an attractive buying price. Over the first three days of this week, around 36,700t traded on the CME contract, compared with just over 41,000t the whole of last week and 11,260t the preceding week. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

17/12/25

Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

London, 17 December (Argus) — Europe's copper market heads into 2026 carrying the imprint of an extraordinary 2025, a year in which price signals, physical flows and geopolitics diverged sharply. What emerged was not a simple story of shortage or surplus, but a fractured global market in which Europe briefly found itself competing for metal with the US, while China's smelting overcapacity distorted upstream fundamentals. While European supply has stabilised, a projected tightness in 2026 promises higher premiums, particularly if underlying metal prices remain at record highs. Fractured fundamentals in 2025 Copper prices surged through 2025, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month values repeatedly achieving record territory above $11,000/t and briefly approaching $12,000/t in December. 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CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

17/12/25

CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

London, 17 December (Argus) — Italian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices could find stronger support in 2026 as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) moves into its financial phase and safeguard quotas tighten, raising the cost and complexity of third-country supply. Default values under CBAM underscore the need for suppliers to have their emissions data verified, and perceptions of compliance and trustworthiness could reshape import flows in the year ahead. A modest recovery in real steel consumption could add to the upward pressure, even as buyers remain cautious after four years of contraction. European steel association Eurofer forecasts EU real steel consumption will rise by 1.1pc in 2026, following declines of 4.2pc in 2024 and an expected 2.1pc this year, weighed down by weak automotive demand. The improvement coincides with stricter import regulation: CBAM charges will vary by origin, and quota management will become critical, as volumes drop. The origin of import material is likely to only grow in importance for purchasing decision-making. Argus currently publishes seven HRC origin differentials to its cif Italy HRC assessment. Low-CBAM, short-haul origins could tighten spreads to domestic offers, while higher-CBAM volumes will need deeper discounts to remain competitive, which would be exacerbated by expectations of pro-rated safeguard duties once the post-safeguard mechanism enters into effect. Beyond carbon intensity and quota considerations, the ability of suppliers to demonstrate verified CBAM compliance could become a decisive factor in purchasing decisions. Mills perceived as lacking robust internal processes for emissions reporting may face reduced buyer confidence, while those with transparent systems could command a premium. In a market where regulatory risk is rising, trustworthiness and preparedness are emerging as value drivers, influencing origin differentials and potentially narrowing the gap between suppliers perceived as compliant and domestic offers. Domestic Italian mills, by contrast, are positioned to hold premiums over 2025 average prices as imports lose some of their cost advantage, and as volumes are likely to be cut. The Argus Italian HRC ex-works assessment has averaged €583.71/t so far in 2025, down from €620.13/t in 2024, while cif Italy has averaged €530.39/t against €578.47/t a year earlier. Lower averages reflected subdued demand and steady import arrivals through to mid-year, when ample offers from Indonesia, India and Turkey, combined with a firm US dollar, pulled cif Italy lower and forced mills to discount. Domestic HRC values slid into the summer on thin buying and cheaper imports, hitting a low monthly average of €535.75/t in July. Prices rebounded sharply in October to average €608.75/t ex-works as expectations of tighter import rules and CBAM-linked costs lifted sentiment, even as downstream demand stayed muted. With carbon intensity and quotas shaping trade flows, Italian HRC in 2026 could trade higher than in 2025: not on demand strength alone, but on the rising premium for certainty in a more regulated import landscape. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

17/12/25

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s May auto sales, output rise but exports dip

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