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Biofuel production limited by feedstocks in 2030: IEA

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels, Natural gas
  • 27/09/23

Biofuels production rates are not currently on track to meet the 2030 demand that the IEA estimates in the updated Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE) as feedstock availability proves limiting.

By 2040, the demand for liquid biofuel, including gasoline, diesel, marine fuel and aviation fuels that derive their energy content from biogenic non-electricity sources will have increased by 200pc compared with today, the IEA's Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) scenario shows.

The IEA expects demand for biofuels in transport to grow to around 238mn t of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 and 263mtoe in 2040, before declining to 191mtoe by 2050 as the share of electric vehicles (EV) grows. Liquid biofuel growth will come from mainly emerging markets and developing economies because of high consumption in the transport sector. The NZE scenario assumes that no new internal combustion engine passenger cars will be sold by 2035.

But the production rate is not on track to deliver what is required by 2030 in the NZE scenario. Output has increased on average by 4pc per year since 2018, but needs to increase by 13pc per year to reach the 263mtoe projected for 2030.

The slower pace of biofuel production comes from the limited availability of sustainable feedstocks. By 2030, 40pc of the output will be from waste and advanced feedstocks, from crops grown on marginal land, agricultural and forestry residues and residue oils, fats and grease, the IEA said.

According to the IEA, an estimated 20mn t of residue oils, fats, and grease are generated each year and are compatible with commercial production of biofuels.

Biofuels consumption will peak around 2040, before eventually declining after 2050 as the phase-out of the internal combustion engine will lessen the need for blending fuel for road vehicles, the IEA said.

Gaseous bioenergy, including biogas and biomethane, will become highly valuable components of the NZE system by 2030, the IEA said, as cost-effective substitution for natural gas. Gaseous bioenergy has "taken on a significant energy security dimension since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022", the IEA said. And by 2050, biogas produced from anaerobic digestors will become the cheaper alternative to meet the rising demand for gaseous fuels that apply to multiple power outputs, including industrial heat, hydrogen production and maritime fuel, the report said.

The use of bio-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the aviation industry will peak in the mid-2020s to be later complemented by a rising share of synthetic aviation fuel — such as e-kerosine and RFNBOs such as renewable hydrogen, according to the report.


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19/02/25

India’s AMNS seek five-year term LNG deal from 2026

India’s AMNS seek five-year term LNG deal from 2026

Mumbai, 19 February (Argus) — Indian steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) is seeking a five-year term LNG deal for six cargoes a year starting in 2026 for its direct reduced iron (DRI) plant in the western Gujarat state of Hazira, sources close to the matter have told Argus . AMNS seeks to sign the deal with prices linked to the US Henry Hub or Brent on a delivered basis to India's west coast either at Petronet's 17.5mn t/yr Dahej terminal or Shell's 5mn t/yr Hazira terminal, the source said. The tender's final stage is expected to close by 27 February. The deal may equate to 1.8mn t of LNG supply over the period to 2030, assuming a 60,000t LNG cargo size. The Hazira plant has crude steel production capacity of 8.8mn t/yr, according to ArcelorMittal's September 2024 report. As much as 65pc of the capacity is based on DRI. The firm is on track to expand its low-cost steel-making capacity to 15mn t by 2026, the report says. This supply pact also underscores a trend in the global steel industry to use cleaner energy sources to produce green steel. The firm imports up to 75pc of its 1.72mn t in natural gas requirements on an annualised basis, a company official told Argus last year. The steelmaker had last signed a 10-year deal to buy LNG from Shell , with deliveries to start from 2027, at a 11.5 percentage of Brent crude prices that still remains one of the lowest-heard slopes for an Indian term LNG supply contract. And AMNS has a deal with TotalEnergies for 500,000 t/yr that is scheduled to expire in 2026 . The firm may consider extending it next year, another source said. India's demand for LNG term contracts continues to grow as several gas majors signed LNG contracts during the India Energy Week event. India's state-run Bharat Petroleum has signed a five-year LNG agreement with UAE's state-owned Adnoc at 115pc of Henry Hub price plus a constant of $5.66, similar to the Gail five-year term LNG deal signed in December, sources told Argus . State-owned refiner IOC signed a 14-year sales and purchase agreement for up to 1.2mn t/yr of LNG, valued at $7bn-9bn with Adnoc Gas, during the event. The deliveries are set to begin in 2026, and the cargoes will be sourced from the UAE's 6mn t/yr Das Island liquefaction facility. The deal was signed at 12.5pc of Brent crude prices, sources told Argus . And state-owned Gujarat State Petroleum (GSPC) during the event signed a 400,000 t/yr of LNG deal with TotalEnergies for 10 years to begin from 2026. Under this deal, TotalEnergies will deliver up to six cargoes a year to GSPC. The deal was signed at 119pc of Henry Hub price plus a constant of $4.4, sources told Argus . By Rituparna Ghosh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU draft plan seeks to cut energy costs


19/02/25
19/02/25

EU draft plan seeks to cut energy costs

Brussels, 19 February (Argus) — The European Commission has set out plans to tackle the cost of energy in the EU, warning in a draft document that Europe risks de-industrialisation because of a growing energy price gap compared to global competitors. High energy prices are undermining "the EU's global standing and international competitiveness", the commission said, in a draft action plan for affordable energy, seen by Argus . The plan is expected to be released next week, alongside a clean industrial deal and other strategy documents. Much of the strategy relies on non-binding recommendations rather than legislation, particularly in energy taxation. Officials cite EU reliance on imported fossil fuels as a main driver of price volatility. And they also highlight network costs and taxation as key factors. For taxation, the commission pledges — non-binding — recommendations that will advise EU states on how to "effectively" lower electricity taxation levels all the way down to "zero" for energy-intensive industries and households. Electricity should be "less taxed" than other energy sources on the bloc's road to decarbonisation, the commission said. It wants to strip non-energy cost components from energy bills. Officials also eye revival of the long-stalled effort to revise the EU's 2003 energy taxation directive. That requires unanimous approval from member states. The commission pledges, for this year, an energy union task force that pushes for a "genuine" energy union with a fully integrated EU energy market. Additional initiatives include an electrification action plan, a roadmap for digitalisation, and a heating and cooling strategy. A white paper will look at deeper electricity market integration in early next year. EU officials promise "guidance" to national governments on removing barriers to consumers switching suppliers and changing contracts, on energy efficiency, and on consumers and communities producing and selling renewable energy. More legislative action will come to decouple retail electricity bills from gas prices and ease restrictions on long-term energy contracts for heavy industries. By 2026, the commission promises guidance on combining power purchase agreements (PPAs) with contracts for difference (CfDs). And officials will push for new rules on forward markets and hedging. There are also plans for a tariff methodology for network charges that could become legally binding. Familiar proposals include fast-tracking energy infrastructure permits, boosting system flexibility via storage and demand response. Legislative overhaul of the EU's energy security framework in 2026 aims to better prepare Europe for supply disruptions, cutting price volatility and levels. Specific figures on expected savings from cutting fossil fuel imports are not given in the draft seen by Argus . But the strategy outlines the expected savings from replacing fossil fuel demand in electricity generation with "clean energy" at 50pc. Improving electrification and energy efficiency will save 30pc and enhancing energy system flexibility will save 20pc, according to the draft. The commission is also exploring long-term supply deals and investments in LNG export terminals to curb prices. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China's GoldWind offers first biomethanol spot cargo


19/02/25
19/02/25

China's GoldWind offers first biomethanol spot cargo

Singapore, 19 February (Argus) — Major Chinese private-sector wind turbine supplier GoldWind has started offering biomethanol spot cargoes, it announced today at the Argus Green Marine Fuels Conference. The producer is currently offering a spot price of $820/t dob northeast Asia for its biomethanol, GoldWind vice president Chen Shi said at the conference, held in Singapore from 18-19 February. GoldWind is offering a total of around 120,000t of biomethanol with 70pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings for bunkering from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. The company plans to start up its first biomethanol unit with 250,000t/yr capacity in Xinganmeng, Inner Mongolia, by the end of 2025. The plant will feed on wind power-based green hydrogen and corn straw-based biomass. GoldWind aims to start up its second 250,000t/yr biomethanol unit in late 2026. GoldWind signed a long-term offtake agreement with Danish shipping and logistics firm Maersk in November 2023 to supply 250,000t/yr of biomethanol once it achieves full operations, likely from 2027 onwards. The company secured a second long-term offtake agreement in November 2024 with rival container liner Hapag-Lloyd, also to supply 250,000t/yr of biomethanol from 2027 onwards. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift


18/02/25
18/02/25

US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift

New York, 18 February (Argus) — A US federal appeals court has paused the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s rejection of a refiner's request for exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, with relief possible for two more refiners as the US reassesses policy under a new administration. A three-judge panel on the US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals last week granted a request from Calumet's 57,000 b/d refinery in Shreveport, Louisiana, to pause a recent EPA action denying the refinery relief from its 2023 obligations under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard. The stay will remain as the court continues reviewing the legality of EPA's rejection, issued in the waning days of President Joe Biden's administration. Under the program, EPA sets annual mandates for blending biofuels into the conventional fuel supply but allows oil refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less to apply for exemptions if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate" economic hardship. The Biden administration denied these petitions en masse, though most of these rejections were struck down by courts concerned with the government's reasoning. During his first term, President Donald Trump was more generous with refinery relief, which in turn weighed on biofuel demand and the prices of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits at the time. Though the 5th Circuit did not explain its decision, EPA had shifted course after the presidential transition, telling the court earlier in the week that it did not oppose Calumet's request for a stay and that it was reconsidering the refiner's earlier exemption petition. The agency said in other court cases that it would not oppose similar pauses on recently issued waiver rejections affecting Calumet's 15,000 b/d oil refinery in Great Falls, Montana, and CVR Energy's 75,000 b/d refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma. EPA's ambivalence makes stays more likely, leaving those refiners with little reason for now to enter the market for RIN credits. The agency still says it "takes no position on the merits" as its review of small refinery exemptions continues but the filings at least suggest the possibility of reversing prior rejections. EPA has not yet signaled a more substantive policy around how it will handle similar small refinery requests, which have piled up in recent months. There were 139 pending petitions covering ten compliance years according to the latest program data. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU proposal to extend gas filling targets due in 1Q


18/02/25
18/02/25

EU proposal to extend gas filling targets due in 1Q

London, 18 February (Argus) — The European Commission will publish a legislative proposal on the extension of its gas storage regulation before the end of March, according to a leaked document seen by Argus . The commission will work with member states to "promote more co-ordinated and flexible gas storage refilling, including with dynamic targets to reduce system stress linked to gas storage refilling and support summer preparedness", according to the document. The existing regulation — which obliges member states to fill their storage capacity to 90pc by 1 November, but with derogations for certain countries — expires at the end of this year. The EU's storage fill mandate has supported front-summer contracts across European hubs in recent months, as stronger underground storage withdrawals than in recent years have pushed up expectations of summer injection demand. Summer 2025 contracts have disconnected at well above winter 2025-26 prices. Filling up storage before winter in the context of inverted seasonal spreads has become a growing concern of member states . Some countries, including Germany, have called for the storage fill requirements to be less rigid . Last week, discussions between member states and the EU's gas co-ordination group regarding the potential relaxation of EU storage obligations led to tightened summer-winter spreads. The TTF summer 2025-winter 2025-2026 spread was €2.75/MWh on 17 February, in from €5.29/MWh a week earlier. Tighter gas market supervision The commission will consult stakeholders on tightening the supervision of gas-trading markets, according to the document. The consultation will cover exemptions from conduct and prudential rules applicable to investment firms for which gas derivatives trading is "ancillary" to their main commercial business, as well as position limits in EU spot markets. It will consult on the joint supervision of gas trading by energy and financial regulators and the creation of a database gathering all open positions held by market participants. These measures were promoted in a report by former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi published in September last year . Draghi warned that mounting activity and speculation in the gas derivatives market could lead to price volatility and called for greater oversight of gas trading. The commission had already set up a gas market task force earlier this month to scrutinise European gas markets and identify behaviours that distorted prices, according to the document. The gas market task force will provide recommendations by the fourth quarter of this year. By Isabel Valverde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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