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Lithuania drives September gas consumption in Baltics

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 12/10/23

Lithuanian gas consumption in September was more than three times higher than a year earlier and helped drive regional demand up by 79pc on the year.

Combined consumption in Finland and the Baltics climbed to 2.77TWh last month from 2.53TWh in August and from 1.55TWh in September 2022. Lithuania and Finland mostly drove these increases, more than offsetting an 18pc decline in Estonia (see graph).

Lithuanian consumption jumped to 1.18TWh in September from just 368GWh a year earlier, after TTF front-month prices hit a record high of €319/MWh in late August 2022. Such high gas prices at the time discouraged ammonia production, as imports were significantly cheaper, prompting the largest regional gas-consuming company, Achema, to halt production, limiting gas use to just over 1 GWh/d in September 2022, data from transmission system operator Amber Grid show.

Curtailments by Achema last year weighed heavily on overall Lithuanian consumption in September, when industry rather than residential heating drives demand. Jonava's second ammonia facility resuming output last month will have constituted a sizeable portion of much higher Lithuanian demand in September.

Meanwhile, Finnish consumption also rose, by about 50pc on the year to 972GWh in September — the sixth consecutive month of annual gains — thanks to higher industrial and power-sector gas demand. But consumption remained drastically below the yearly average in 2018-21 of 1.85TWh, suggesting industrial demand has still only partially recovered and some demand may not return.

Latvia's consumption in September jumped by a third on the year because of gas-fired generation, which was nearly 80pc higher than in September last year. Finnish and Lithuanian gas-fired output also increased significantly on the year (see table), as power prices increased across the Nord Pool area last month.

The average day-ahead gas price on the GET Baltic exchange inched down to €42.07/MWh in September from €42.69/MWh in August, and traded volumes fell to 633GWh from 683GWh, the exchange said. Lithuania accounted for 41pc of trades, while the common Estonia-Latvia market area and Finland made up 32pc and 27pc, respectively.

October reshuffle

The Balticconnector is expected to remain off line until at least April next year, meaning Finland's only sources of gas this winter will be the Inkoo and Hamina LNG terminals.

The outage will significantly alter regional flows and has already driven Finnish spot prices above those in the neighbouring Baltic markets. Higher Finnish prices could make gas-fired plants less competitive, particularly given Finnish hydropower and nuclear production compared with October last year. But Finnish consumption in the near term could remain broadly stable because a 15 October cargo slot is booked at Inkoo, along with a 40-day regasification slot.

Looking further ahead, it remains unclear what will happen after this slot. Interest in booking slots in November-March has been limited in part because of concerns about icy conditions. But with the Balticconnector being unavailable, market participants may be forced to book slots to meet demand from consumers.

And Achema probably will continue to drive Lithuanian gas consumption this month — domestic ammonia production has become much more competitive in recent months as outages in key exporting countries have resulted in significantly higher import prices. In Poland, Grupa Azoty has ramped up its fertiliser production over the past two months and sees signs of improving demand following difficult market conditions earlier this year. "The worst is over," Azoty believes.

Baltic Sep average gas-fired power generationMW
20232022±
Estonia541
Latvia19410985
Lithuania1031291
Finland15612036
Total458245213

September gas consumption by country GWh

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10/02/25

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk

New York, 10 February (Argus) — North American natural gas producers and LNG importers are evaluating their exposure to impending tariffs on Canadian gas flowing into the US, including how they could benefit from uncertainty around the policy. Marketers responsible for managing gas supplies across the US-Canada border and at least one North American LNG importer are holding internal meetings to discuss risks and opportunities related to the potential tariffs, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous because they are not allowed to speak publicly. President Donald Trump on 3 February delayed 10pc tariffs on energy from Canada and Mexico by a month, a day before they were set to be imposed. One of the largest US gas producers is reviewing its supply contracts with Canadian customers to evaluate its exposure to possible retaliatory tariffs by Canada, a person with knowledge of the matter told Argus . The company is particularly concerned with its ability to achieve price certainty given a lack of clarity around which party would pay the tariff and how such a transaction might be audited by regulators, the person said. Some large US gas producers are also looking to exploit the so-called "uncertainty premium" by strategically timing when they hedge their output — ideally, when rhetoric and anxiety over tariffs mounts, so they can lock in higher prices, sources in the banking sector said. Internal meetings to discuss potential tariffs are also being held at US utility Constellation Energy, owner of the Everett LNG import terminal near Boston, Massachusetts, sources said. Tariffs could make Everett LNG more competitive by modestly raising New England pipeline gas prices, thereby making LNG imports more economical when the price for local pipeline capacity is high. Tariffs could also hurt demand for gas from the Saint John LNG import terminal in New Brunswick, Canada, owned by Spanish energy conglomerate Repsol, since most of Saint John's imported gas supplies are shipped via pipeline across the US border into New England. Constellation and Repsol did not respond to requests for comment. New England relies on gas imported from abroad by Everett LNG and Saint John LNG during particularly cold winter days because of insufficient pipeline capacity connecting the region to prolific gas fields in Pennsylvania and the surrounding states. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump's 10pc tariffs on Canadian energy products would reduce Canadian gas exports to the US by about 160mn cf/d (5mn m³/d), while investment bank RBC Capital Markets said the tariffs could cause "mildly higher US gas prices". By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


10/02/25
10/02/25

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs


07/02/25
07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips


07/02/25
07/02/25

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips

New York, 7 February (Argus) — Threatened US tariffs targeting Canadian imports have both "pluses and minuses" for US independent producer ConocoPhillips which has production on both sides of the northern border. The company's primary exposure to tariffs would center upon sales from its Surmont oil sands operations in Alberta, Canada, into the US. "We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the US on a mix of pipeline and rail," said Andy O'Brien, ConocoPhillips senior vice president for strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology. "But the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West coast or sold in the local Alberta market." If tariffs were to be implemented, it is "pretty difficult" to say exactly who would carry the burden -- producers or buyers -- he added. "The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf coast or the west coast refiners," O'Brien said. The company's diversified portfolio would also help shelter it from some exposure. "If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for [Alaska North Slope crude] and possibly even the Permian," said O'Brien. "So lots of moving parts." Like others in the oil industry, ConocoPhillips is looking at the potential to supply power to cater to the boom in AI data centers. "It's got to be competitive for capital, but it certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told analysts after posting fourth quarter results. Although the Trump administration has called on domestic producers to step up output, Lance said his priority was to drive further efficiencies in operations. "A lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform," Lance said, and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Drilling approvals, rights of ways, and permits on federal land all slowed under the administration of former-president Joe Biden and there is an opportunity now to get back on track. "That just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to a more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well," Lance said. "So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations." Full-year 2025 output at ConocoPhillips is seen in the range of 2.34mn-2.38mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), which includes 20,000 boe/d of planned turnarounds. Fourth quarter 2024 profit fell to $2.3bn from $3bn in the final three months of 2023, as higher volumes were more than offset by acquisition-related expenses and lower prices. Averaged realized prices fell 10pc to $52.37/boe from the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter output of 2.18mn boe/d represented an increase of 281,000 boe/d from the same quarter of the previous year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, output grew by 6pc. As part of a $2bn divestment goal, ConocoPhillips has signed agreements to sell non-core Lower 48 assets for $600mn. They are expected to close in the first half of the year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer


06/02/25
06/02/25

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — The US is likely to remain the world's top crude producer for some time to come, according to shale executives at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "In the foreseeable future, I don't really see a lot of change," said Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy. There is still enough high-quality acreage to go after, while efficiency gains around faster drilling times and targeting longer wells are also helping to drive output gains. "There's a lot of creativity that goes on in trying to understand how we can do more with less," Flowers said today at the event. While the rig count is down 20pc over the last two years, production has grown by more than 1mn b/d. "Doing more with less is kind of a common theme," Flowers said in reference to operations at Coterra and across the industry. "I expect that to continue." While the Permian has dominated all the attention of late, the offshore Gulf of Mexico is likely to be an important driver of output going forward, with several projects starting up this year. Other regions such as the Rockies, Wyoming and possibly Utah could also see some growth. A recent round of mergers and acquisitions that saw $300bn of upstream oil and gas deals inked has further to run, says John Argo, vice president for the Williston Basin at Continental Resources. "There will continue to be more consolidation," Argo said. Scarcity with regard to remaining high-quality acreage means that valuations will continue to climb, he said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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