A commitment to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 at Cop 28 would result in the phase down of fossil fuels, the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) director general Francesco La Camera told reporters on the sidelines of the pre-Cop 28 ministerial summit in Abu Dhabi.
Asked whether agreeing on the tripling of the global renewable energy capacity at Cop 28 could offset the use of language in a deal on phasing down fossil fuels, La Camera said that asking for 1,000GW [per year in new global renewable] capacity means phasing down fossil fuels. G20 leaders have already agreed to pursue tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 against 2019 levels, and reaching an agreement on renewables is one of Cop 28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber's key goals.
"I just want to make clear that assuming that we can get to 11,000GW of renewable energy — which costs less than other energies for electricity production — means that the market is already seeing a [phase] down of fossil fuels," he added.
Some observers and parties have cautioned against focusing solely on tripling global renewable capacity and avoid stronger language on fossil fuels, saying that a clear signal is needed. "The risk is that you see an expansion of renewable energy which does not phase out fossil fuels at the rate that is needed to cut emissions by half by 2030," civil society organisation Oil Change global policy campaign manager Romain Ioualalen, told Argus earlier this year.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 43pc and methane by a third by 2030 to meet 1.5°C, the Paris agreement's most ambitious temperature limit, while GHG emissions would need to be cut by a quarter by the end of the decade to meet 2°C, according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said.
Caution needed
But La Camera today cautioned that while it remains important to decrease the use of fossil fuels, it is equally essential not to cause a disruption in the energy system. He said that his concern is that any disruption in terms of energy supply will be blamed on renewables.
"[If] you create a disruption in the market there will be a backlash on renewables," he noted. "Renewables are a good thing. They are clean, they are putting us in the pathway for the Paris agreement, creating more job and more resilience to shock, he said, adding that this is easiest and most effective way to avoid energy dependency and to ensure energy security.
Pressure is mounting for countries to agree on phasing down fossil fuels at Cop 28, with EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra reiterating last week that the world needs to "get rid of fossil fuels, as many as possible, and as fast as possible", outside of hard-to-abate sectors. But key countries such as Russia, China and Saudi Arabia are unlikely to support new language on fossil fuels, although La Camera said that he expects to the Cop 28 final cover text to potentially offer more specific language around coal, including timelines. "This is what we have heard, it is possible to get 2030, 2040 [for a coal phase down]," La Camera said.
Last year's Cop 27 final deal failed to include any follow-through on coal. The deal simply repeated the wording agreed upon at the Glasgow summit in 2021, which called parties to accelerate "efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."
