Q&A: Adnoc says CCS ready for scale now

Spanish Market: Emissions
10/11/23

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects look likely to draw more attention at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai later this month, with president-designate Sultan al-Jaber calling for an ambitious 30-fold scale-up of global capacity to help the world reach its net zero goals. Sophie Hildebrand, chief technology officer of Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc, spoke with Argus on 10 November at the site of a CO2 injection pilot project the company is developing with Oman-based 44.01 in Fujairah. Hildebrand touches on Adnoc's CCS ambitions, the prospects for technology globally and the role it can play in the wider transition to net zero.

Edited highlights follow:

Sultan al-Jaber said global CCS capacity needs to rise 30-fold globally. How long do you think we will need to reach this target?

I think CCS is a technology that is ready for scale right now.

The exact date [we will reach that], I don't know, but we need to get after this faster, because this is a technology that we've known about, that we know how to implement, and we just need to work together to scale. And as we scale, we will also drive the cost down, which will enable that scaling to happen even faster.

US climate envoy John Kerry said the oil and gas industry had a responsibility to prove that CCS, in the context of oil and gas projects, is feasible, and is going to deliver the emissions reductions that the world needs. Do you think the industry, and Adnoc specifically, is doing enough now to scale up the technology?

Adnoc has an ambition to have 10mn t/yr of CCS capacity. We have already been operating the Al-Reyadah facility for a number of years that is capturing 800,000 t/yr.

We've announced the Habshan 5 project, with a capacity of 1.5mn t/yr, and the Ghasha project, also with 1.5mn t/yr. We're scaling up our capacity, and I think with the scale up, again, you'll see the costs coming down. One of the things about the energy industry that's really important is that we've been managing complex engineering projects for years. Energy companies are specifically well situated to help drive these projects forward.

At Adnoc we have an ambition to decrease our carbon intensity by 25pc by 2030 [from a 2019 baseline] on our products and be net zero by 2045. [Adnoc has a target to reach net zero operational emissions by 2045].  Adnoc has been operating Al-Reyadah, so we are absolutely progressing the activity forward, and Adnoc will be part of the solution also in terms of driving the cost down.

At the moment, we have three carbon capture pilots: this one, one [with Fertiglobe] and there's the project with [US renewable energy firm] Lanzatech, which is some way off, but still within the CCU umbrella.

You mentioned the 2045 target. How much of that is going to include CO2 capture?

Adnoc has a capacity to get to 10mn t/yr by 2030, and that's our initial commitment. We announce the projects as they firm up. So far, we have almost 4mn t committed in carbon capture capacity already.

But of course, our net zero by 2045 pledge isn't solely based on CCUS [carbon capture, use and storage]. There are also low carbon solutions, decarbonisation of our operations and various other things.

This is an 'and' solution. We need lots of different solutions, many different locations. Heavy-emitting industries need solutions to capture their CO2. There are a lot of heavy-emitting industries in the world. Whether it's cement, aluminium. So this is an 'and' conversation, and we need the technology to be scaled, to help drive the cost down. But we also need to be deploying things that we know will work today.

Would Adnoc be able to store that CO2, or are you going to work on more commercial partnerships to collect and store CO2 from other emitters?

At the Al-Reyadah project we are capturing CO2 from Emirates Steel, and utilising it in our operations. I would say there will be multiple pathways forward.

Partnerships are a key part of helping heavy-emitting industries decarbonise. We need to partner with all sorts of different companies, large and small. 44.01 is one of the smaller companies, but we also partner with larger companies to try to figure out what solutions we can put in place faster that can drive the decarbonisation in a profitable manner.

Also, in January we set up a new low carbon solutions directorate, headed by [Adnoc executive director of low carbon solutions] Musabbeh al-Kaabi, and were taking a look at all sorts of mechanisms for not only scaling up CCS, but also the partnership with [US independent] Occidental that we have… so multiple different pathways to help the industry decarbonise, whether it's hydrogen or elsewhere.

Specifically on the storage point, we have aquifers in Abu Dhabi, where we are going to be injecting 18,000 t initially of CO2 from our Fertiglobe operations that are already captured. We have had capture facilities in place there since 2010. We're going to see initial injection this year.

In Europe and the UK Emissions Trading Schemes will become a key driver for CCS as the price or cost of emitting goes up. What makes CCS commercially viable in the UAE?

One of the projects we're working on with Lanzatech, we're trying to take waste streams of gas or CO2 and turn them into viable products. We're using a natural microbial process to do that.

I would say the technologies that create energy efficiency and profitability are the ones that have been scaled fastest. When different technology providers and industries come together and talk about their decarbonisation challenges, the ability for a technology to be profitable, and see overlying profitability, helps that scaling process happen much faster. I think profitability also gets driven by large scale deployment and costs coming down, which is something the energy industry can be key with, as we scale up CCS.

But it's important to note we're not new to CCS… for example, we've operated Al-Reyadah now for seven years. It came online in 2016. It's not a new thing for Adnoc to be entering into this space. It's just an expansion of something we have already been pioneering for a long time. We were the first in the region to have such facilities.

How optimistic are you [on the prospects for CCS]?

I'm extremely optimistic, because I believe that through partnership, collaboration and dialogue, we can solve just about anything.

By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim

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02/04/26

Carbon - In focus: UK ETS widens discount to EU in Q1

London, 2 April (Argus) — The benchmark front-year contract under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) significantly widened its discount to the EU throughout the first quarter of this year, as scant signs of progress on efforts to link the two systems reduced previous optimism of an impending price convergence, and the UK supply-demand balance remained more relaxed than the EU's. The UK ETS front-year contract closed on average around £14.75/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) below its EU counterpart in Argus assessments over January-March, having widened from a low of £6.85/t CO2e in mid-January to a high of £25/t CO2e this week. This compares with an average discount of £13.50/t CO2e in the fourth quarter of last year, within a narrower range of £8.80-17.70/t CO2e, and is the widest average discount for any quarter since the first quarter of last year's £21.80/t CO2e. Linkage plans squeeze spread The UK's discount to the EU began to narrow significantly after the UK government said in a statement in March 2025 that it was "actively considering" linking its ETS back to the EU's, a position confirmed by both sides as part of their common understanding agreement concluded between the UK and EU at a summit in May last year. The markets separated in 2021 as part of Brexit, and while the EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement signed as part of that process committed the two sides to giving "serious consideration" to linking the schemes, no meaningful steps towards a link had previously been taken. The news dramatically narrowed the spread between the two markets, with the UK front year's discount to the EU squeezed to an average of £9.90/t CO2e in the second quarter of 2025. A linkage would logically lead to a convergence of UK and EU ETS prices, as the allowances issued under the two schemes would be fungible. Momentum on the issue continued over the remainder of the year and early 2026, as the European Commission set out in July its recommendation for the legal basis for linkage negotiations, approved by member states in November , and the first round of negotiations kicked off in January . But while the EU and UK said that they aimed to complete talks on the linkage before the next UK-EU summit in 2026, no date for the meeting has been set, and updates on negotiations have in recent months been notable by their absence. Recent events have likely pushed ETS linkage down the political agenda, whether on the domestic front — Keir Starmer's position as UK prime minister came under pressure in February — or internationally, most notably as the US-Iran war sparked a renewed energy crisis. EU supply-demand balance tightens Changes to key fundamentals have also tightened the EU ETS supply-demand balance this year in a way that hasn't been seen in the UK ETS, further widening the spread between the markets. Both the maritime and aviation sectors will have to pay for 100pc of their 2026 emissions covered by the EU ETS, after shipping was phased gradually into the system over the previous two years and free allocations for airlines were phased out. Free allocations for industrial sectors covered by the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) are also scheduled to start decreasing from this year alongside the measure's introduction, and some CBAM-exposed firms have begun purchasing EU ETS allowances to hedge their expected costs. The UK also ended free allocations for aviation under its ETS this year. But the maritime sector will not be included at all until July this year, and then will only apply to domestic voyages until at least 2028. And the UK CBAM does not launch until 2027. The UK ETS authority also opted late last year not to introduce a supply adjustment mechanism to the scheme, which could otherwise have reduced allowance auction volumes if the total number of allowances in circulation surpassed a certain level. Short-term fundamentals diverge The US-Iran war has prompted further divergence between the markets. EU ETS prices rallied in tandem with natural gas prices on the expectation that more coal plants would come on line, increasing the carbon intensity of the bloc's generation mix and therefore compliance demand for allowances. The UK, by contrast, has no operational coal-fired units. This has seen carbon costs even for power generators become consistently cheaper in the UK than the EU for the first time since February last year, despite the UK's additional £18/t CO2e carbon price support (CPS) charge on the sector. The discount of the UK ETS to the EU including the CPS stood at an average of around £3.25/t CO2e in March. UK ETS prices could find some support over the coming weeks from last-minute buying in the run-up to the scheme's annual compliance deadline on 30 April, upward pressure that will not be seen in the EU ETS with its 30 September deadline, which could narrow the spread between the markets in the short term. But participants will otherwise be awaiting more clarity on linkage. And with the Middle East conflict dragging on, the approach of local elections in the UK and the planned EU ETS review in July, plenty of factors could slow completion of the talks. By Victoria Hatherick EU, UK ETS front-year contract £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

31/03/26

Bulk terminals firm HES prepares for energy transition

Paris, 31 March (Argus) — Bulk terminal company HES International operates 14 facilities in four European countries and anticipates important changes to its operations as the energy transition and hydrogen market evolve. Argus spoke with new energies business development director Otto Waterlander and chief commercial officer for HES Med Terminal Firas Ezzeddine about how an infrastructure player must adapt to serve customers. Edited highlights follow: What does HES do and what is its role in decarbonisation? Ezzeddine: We are an essential and critical part of the logistics value chain for the industrial heart of Europe. Our value proposition is that we are located in deep sea ports in close proximity to industrial zones, meaning that we are well positioned to serve strategic European industries and their logistical needs. Waterlander: We are purely an infrastructure player; we do not normally have a stake or exposure to the commodities that we manage through our terminals. Our customers tend to be carbon-intensive and they all are struggling with the question of decarbonisation. For HES, it is both a necessity and an opportunity. It is a necessity because classic flows of commodities will phase out over time. And an opportunity because of the energy transition... new things are happening, for example, [development of a] CO2 [market]. Today, we are not involved in handling CO2, but it is going to become a commodity in the future. What are the main challenges related to energy transition activities? Ezzeddine: I see challenges in three buckets. The first is timing: there is a bit of a lag between project deployment and when the infrastructure should be ready to facilitate flows. These are generally not well aligned. The second challenge is around financing. We see from both private and public sector a bit of a risk averseness in terms of investing in the infrastructure for the future. The final challenge is regulation regarding both the new flows of commodities and the actual development of infrastructure. Waterlander: There is also a question about what the utilisation of new infrastructure will be like, particularly in the early years. What you see in the industry is that often projects get delayed, either because they are not economic or because their utilisation challenges create an [unfavourable] economic situation. A recent example is the CO2 transport pipelines. They require large volumes to make it economic and those volumes are not there yet. You need to factor in some long periods of underutilisation of the infrastructure. H ow are you addressing this last challenge, for example for CO 2 infrastructure? Waterlander: We believe that the key to unlocking the market is to go smaller and create optionality. For example, with regard to CO2 terminal activities, we are advancing in Wilhelmshaven and Rotterdam. We already have infrastructure there to receive tankers and we have dedicated jetties to handle the unloading or loading of vessels. We just need to adjust them so that we can also move CO2. We believe that we can actually get our terminals economically viable at about 1.5mn or maybe 2mn t/yr of CO2 handling, when most of the projects will look at 10mn t/yr plus. If we could develop a smaller size terminal to begin with and then grow to larger sizes, we can help the market to come to grips with those volumes. And then gradually over time, volumes will move into pipelines as well. Will the CO 2 be liquefied at the HES terminals? Waterlander: There are two models. In one we have pipeline transport of gaseous CO2, then HES will liquefy the CO2 at its site before it goes onto the ships. That is the most efficient way because otherwise each player would have to have their own liquefaction. But before we have the gaseous pipelines, we will see customers installing their CO2 capture facilities, liquefy it on site, load it into rail tankcars or into barges on the Rhine, for example, to Rotterdam. In this case we receive it in liquid form already. We are planning to have CO2 infrastructure in place by 2029. In the first year, that is only for a small volume, but by 2030 it starts to become significant. We will launch an open season for our first two CO2 terminals in the coming weeks and we are aiming to analyse more specific capacity bookings through these. In France's Fos-sur-Mer, you are working with the Gravithy green iron initiative . What additional infrastructure is needed for that? Ezzeddine: We will be managing the inflow of material for them, which is the iron ore, and the export of their hot briquetted iron [HBI] production. What that entails, in essence, is having some cranes and conveyor belt infrastructure from and to their facility. For the iron ore side, it is not different from the infrastructure that we have for other sites. But the HBI requires dedicated infrastructure because of the nature of the product. What we are doing now is designing a conveyor belt network going from our terminal to theirs, which is around 2km away, where we send iron ore and we receive HBI, and we dedicate a specific slot on our terminal land where we have specific storage for them. Does GravitHy need to book capacity in advance to enable the expansions? Ezzeddine: We have a specific planning and demand forecasting system where we input the potential volumes going in and out. When a new client comes in, they add their inflow and outflow requirements to the model. Then we see whether that is feasible or not given the current infrastructure and the land capacity that we have. The client, in this case GravitHy, tells us they have a need for ‘X' million tonnes of throughput in our terminal, and it is up to us to design the optimal inflow and outflow process. We update the model quite frequently so that we have visibility on what is needed by when, especially because some projects require infrastructure that takes years to build. What are HES' plans for e-methanol? Waterlander: We're working on an e-methanol import project where it will be brought from across the Atlantic into Germany. We have a storage site in Germany that is a former refinery and has liquid storage facilities. We still have an element of the refinery operational that provides security of supply today. We're discussing with a partner the construction of a synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) facility as well, which they would locate on our premises. What about other hydrogen carriers or hydrogen-based fuels? Waterlander: We're very proactive on following everything in the hydrogen space. We had discussions about liquid hydrogen imports. We are also into advanced project steps on imports of ammonia into Germany and are in project definition for imports of liquid organic hydrogen carriers. For our Wilhelmshaven site, we already have signed a letter of intent with grid infrastructure company OGE to be connected to the hydrogen network. Ammonia in particular is rather expensive because you need crackers. Is HES planning to develop ammonia crackers? Waterlander: It depends, it is still such early days. If we do it, it would not be at our sole risk, that is clear. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Fossil fuel producers part of Colombia phase out talks

31/03/26

Fossil fuel producers part of Colombia phase out talks

Edinburgh, 31 March (Argus) — Fossil fuel producers Canada, the UK, Norway, Angola, Mexico, Brazil, Senegal and Australia are among 45 countries confirmed to take part in a global meeting in Colombia to progress discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels, according to Colombia's environment minister Irene Torres. "These countries are strategically important because they reflect the diversity of the fossil fuel supply chain, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global production and nearly one-third of global consumption," Torres said. The conference was announced during the UN climate Cop 30 conference in Belem last year and will be held in Santa Marta on 24-29 April. Torres said the countries taking part will launch a global coalition aimed at accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. Countries vulnerable to the climate crisis, such as island nations of Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Palau and the Marshall Islands, will be present. Countries reliant on fossil fuel imports, such as Germany, France, Italy, Vietnam, Cameroon and Cambodia will be present, as will the EU and the Cop 30 and 31 respective presidencies, Brazil and Turkey. The Cop 30 presidency is drafting a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, after calls to include it in the outcome of the Belem summit were rejected . The document should be ready in time for Cop 31 in Antalya, Turkey, although it is unclear what the next steps will be when is released. "Despite our differences, all participants agree on the need to prioritise science and to move forward, urgently and in a coordinated manner, toward phasing out the production and consumption of natural gas, coal, and oil," Torres said. The conference will serve as a forum to build consensus and demonstrate "the will to act on this transition", she said. The conference comes as energy security concerns are to fore again, because of oil and gas supply disruptions resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran. "The meeting aims to create favourable conditions for moving toward concrete agreements and strengthening co-operation among countries with different economic and energy situations," Torres said. She said the broad representation "underscores the diversity of perspectives". Among fossil fuel producers present, only the UK and Denmark have committed to end licensing, although the former will continue to allow tie-backs to existing fields and the latter is considering extending one or more licences until 2050 . Brazil, the largest oil producer in Latin America, is due to publish a fossil fuel phase-out plan imminently after missing a self-imposed February deadline . It has said developed countries should take the lead when it comes to "the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mexico, the second-largest oil producer in Latin America, joined Colombia in signing a declaration pushing for a transition away from fossil fuels during Cop 30. Canada, the world's fourth largest oil producer, has focused efforts on the phase-out of fossil subsidies and reducing emissions in the sector but has no plans to phase out production of fossil fuels. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has recently been pushing his country's large oil and gas resource base abroad , pledging more infrastructure is forthcoming. Norway has repeatedly said it is not planning to phase out oil and gas, but the Green party has pushed for a commission looking at the oil transition to be set up in December, as part of a deal to pass the country's budget. African producers such as Angola — the continent's second largest producer — are likely to continue focusing on the "just transition" aspect, including climate finance and technology transfer and reducing its dependency on oil revenues. Angola said it is planning to keep production steady until at least 2027, after years of battling declining output. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2

27/03/26

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2

Updates with details from final regulatory text New York, 27 March (Argus) — The US will require record-high biofuel use over the next two years, boosting soybean farmers and alternative diesel producers at the expense of oil refiners that warned of higher pump prices. Oil refiners will have to bring billions more gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel to market in 2026 and 2027, according to new blend requirements released by President Donald Trump's administration Friday. The mandates for biomass-based diesel this year alone are more than 60pc above targets in the category last year, the biggest annual step change in program history. The requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. They also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives like biofuels. Requiring "the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history" will create rural jobs and "massively increase our nation's energy supply", Trump said at a White House event. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas had already boosted the price of RINs — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. Friday's final rule includes a record-high mandate of 26.81bn RINs from total renewable fuel blending in 2026 and 27.02bn RINs in 2027, though fewer RINs per gallon next year for some fuels mean those future requirements are even more ambitious than they first appear. EPA sets total blend requirements and requires that a portion come from lower-carbon "advanced" biofuel types including biomass-based diesel. A gallon of corn ethanol generates one RIN, while more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel earn more. Other updates show the Trump administration siding clearly with farmers over refiners. Larger oil companies, for instance, will have to blend more biofuels to offset the demand hit from recently generous program exemptions for some small refining rivals. Spread over the next two years, the added mandate of more than 2bn RINs equals around 70pc of biofuel volumes expected to be exempted from 2023-2025 blend quotas, higher than other options EPA considered. The administration did punt an earlier plan to penalize imports, which would have been one of the most substantial and legally contested reforms in program history. While the final rule includes few more details, EPA expects to implement some version of that provision — which could mean foreign biofuels and feedstocks receive half the RINs as domestic product — starting in 2028. Farm groups have pushed regulators to do more to restrict inputs that compete with US crops, including recycled cooking oil that major renewable diesel plants bring in from countries like China. Refiners had lobbied the administration this month to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices already rising because of war in the Middle East. With affordability concerns top of mind for voters ahead of this year's midterm elections, the possibility of higher food and fuel prices presents political risk for Republicans. "It's baffling, with fuel prices already rising due to the conflict in Iran, that EPA is finalizing a rule that will make things far worse for consumers", said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group usually on board with Trump's energy policy. The mandates are certain to draw legal challenges, potentially from refiners or environmental groups. But as courts debate the details, the quotas are likely to support continued growth in not just US biofuel production but feedstock processing as well. Crop trading giants like Bunge and Cargill have invested heavily in new soybean and canola crush facilities, hoping to supply more vegetable oils to biofuel plants. Biomass-based diesel wins more than other fuels While the mandates will also support production margins for other biofuels, domestic demand for corn ethanol — the most widely used biofuel in the US — depends more on Congress. Lawmakers have struggled for months to reach a compromise on legislation that would permanently exempt a higher-ethanol gasoline blend from smog rules that currently limit summertime sales. Trump said Friday he was trusting legislative leaders to soon reach a deal. Gasoline stations can continue supplying fuel with up to 15pc ethanol this summer, more than the typical 10pc blend, because of temporary emergency regulations that the Trump administration started issuing this week. But so-called "E15" is still not sold at most US retail outlets. Renewable diesel production capacity in the US, already at record highs and growing, has boomed in part because the biofuel has fewer blend limits. By Cole Martin Final renewable volume obligations bn RINs 2025 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.21 1.36 1.43 Biomass-based diesel 5.36* 9.07 9.20 Advanced biofuel 7.33 11.10 11.32 Total renewable fuel 22.33 26.81 27.02 *2025 biomass-based diesel mandate set in gallons, converted here to RINs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update

27/03/26

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update

Updates throughout with details on announcement New York, 27 March (Argus) — The US will require record-high biofuel use over the next two years, boosting soybean farmers and alternative diesel producers at the expense of oil refiners that warned of higher pump prices. Oil refiners will have to bring billions more gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel to market in 2026 and 2027, according to high-level targets previewed by President Donald Trump's administration. More details will come in final regulatory text that could be published late on Friday. The requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. They also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives like biofuels. Requiring "the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history" will create rural jobs and "massively increase our nation's energy supply", Trump said at a White House event. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas had already boosted the price of RINs — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. Friday's final rule includes a record-high mandate of 26.81bn RINs from total renewable fuel blending this year and 27.02bn RINs next year. EPA sets total blend requirements and requires that a portion come from lower-carbon "advanced" biofuel types including biomass-based diesel. A gallon of corn ethanol generates one RIN, while more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel earn more. Other updates show the Trump administration siding clearly with farmers over refiners. Larger oil companies, for instance, will have to blend more biofuels to offset the demand hit from recently generous program exemptions for some small refining rivals. Spread over the next two years, the added mandate equals around 70pc of biofuel volumes expected to be exempted from 2023-2025 blend quotas, higher than other options EPA considered. The administration did punt an earlier plan to penalize imports, which would have been one of the most substantial and legally contested reforms in program history. But EPA expects to implement that provision — which would mean foreign biofuels and feedstocks receive half the RINs as domestic product — starting in 2028. Farm groups have pushed regulators to do more to restrict inputs that compete with US crops, including recycled cooking oil that major renewable diesel plants bring in from countries like China. Refiners had lobbied the administration this month to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices already rising because of war in the Middle East. With affordability concerns top of mind for voters ahead of this year's midterm elections, the possibility of higher food and fuel prices presents political risk for Republicans. "It's baffling, with fuel prices already rising due to the conflict in Iran, that EPA is finalizing a rule that will make things far worse for consumers", said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group usually on board with Trump's energy policy. The mandates are certain to draw legal challenges, potentially from refiners or environmental groups. But as courts debate the details, the quotas are likely to support continued growth in not just US biofuel production but feedstock processing as well. Crop trading giants like Bunge and Cargill have invested heavily in new soybean and canola crush facilities, hoping to supply more vegetable oils to biofuel plants. Renewable diesel wins more than other fuels While the mandates will also support production margins for other biofuels, domestic demand for corn ethanol — the most widely used biofuel in the US — depends more on Congress. Lawmakers have struggled for months to reach a compromise on legislation that would permanently exempt a higher-ethanol gasoline blend from smog rules that currently limit summertime sales. Trump said Friday he was trusting legislative leaders to soon reach a deal. Gasoline stations can continue supplying fuel with up to 15pc ethanol this summer, more than the typical 10pc blend, because of temporary emergency regulations that the Trump administration started issuing this week. But so-called "E15" is still not sold at most US retail outlets. Renewable diesel production capacity in the US, already at record highs and growing, has boomed in part because the biofuel has fewer blend limits. By Cole Martin Final renewable volume obligations bn RINs 2025 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.21 1.36 1.43 Biomass-based diesel 5.36* 9.07 9.20 Advanced biofuel 7.33 11.10 11.32 Total renewable fuel 22.33 26.81 27.02 *2025 biomass-based diesel mandate set in gallons, converted here to RINs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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