Viewpoint: Brazil chases corn ethanol output growth

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Biomass
  • 18/12/23

Brazil has long relied on sugarcane as a feedstock for ethanol processing, but the corn-based version of the biofuel is likely to expand its share of the country's production mix as investor interest increases.

New ethanol plant announcements are popping up across the country. The plants themselves are not unusual, given Brazil's rich history in biofuel production — especially ethanol from sugarcane. What is drawing attention is the feedstock these plants are processing.

"Sugarcane ethanol is less competitive than corn ethanol right now, so it makes sense for us to pay attention and migrate to the higher margin product," Sao Martinho chief financial officer Felipe Vicchiato said during the firm's second-quarter earnings call.

His views echo a consensus among domestic participants that corn-based biofuel output is poised to take large portions of new output in Brazil, with attractive growth potential via both greenfield and brownfield opportunities.

In June 2019, Sao Martinho revealed it would invest R350mn ($70mn) in a corn-processing unit on the site of its existing sugarcane mill in Boa Vista, in central-western Goias state, an area on the fringe of the country's sugarcane belt that overlaps with Brazil's corn belt.

The firm joined veteran sugarcane mills such as Cerradinho and Pindorama that added a corn-based ethanol plant to leverage its existing infrastructure, in line with the rapid success of Brazilian corn-ethanol pioneer FS and the arrival of Paraguayan group Inpasa in Brazil.

Sao Martinho's newly-built plant came on line just in time for the start of the 2023-2024 season, helping increase biofuel volumes but also allowing the firm to allocate a greater share of sugarcane to sugar processing.

Underpinning this strategy is a bullish view of supply and demand for corn ethanol and its byproducts, particularly dried distillers' grain (DDG) — a corn bran, rich in protein and fiber that is used as a lower-cost alternative to soybean meal to fatten animals.

This narrative, Vicchiato said, is enhanced by juxtaposing the revenues from DDG with lower electricity prices in Brazil's power market, which has narrowed margins for sugarcane-based ethanol milling groups that are able to generate surplus electricity for sale to the national grid.

That is not to say that Sao Martinho has no sugarcane projects in the pipeline. But none of them involve elevating its sugarcane ethanol capacity. "We are evaluating a second corn ethanol plant or sugar-only processing unit in Boa Vista, if the economics make sense," Vicchiato said.

Pros and cons

A survey carried out by Argus found that 15 new non-sugarcane ethanol plants were announced in 2023, but there might be more on the way, some projects more ambitious than others.

Inpasa plans to invest up to R2.5bn to build a plant in northeastern Maranhao state, expanding its presence in the region, which has been traditionally dominated by local sugarcane milling companies or the trading-arms of large fuel retailers such as Raizen. A flagship R556mn investment by producer Be8 in Rio Grande do Sul has yet to move ahead, but could help solve the southern state's structural deficit in ethanol. Despite regional production, it must bring biofuel from nearby states to meet demand.

One of the main drivers that inspired these companies to pursue biofuel production from corn or other grains is ample availability of low-cost supplies, with a record winter — or second — crop allowing year-long stockpiles.

Investment bank analysts said ethanol plants in Brazil that use any feedstock are capital intensive, but the return on investment (ROI) on corn-based ethanol projects is faster compared to its sweeter competitor.

But securing biomass could be a challenge to expand corn ethanol production. Most ethanol facilities in the country use bagasse — the biomass from the sugarcane crushing process — to meet its own production energy needs. But corn ethanol plants rely on burning eucalyptus or other types of biomass to power operations.

Changing dynamics

Some argue that the added output could shift trading dynamics in the spot market, where companies pursue a "carry" strategy of stockpiling biofuel to benefit from higher prices during the so-called inter-harvest, when cane mills stop their crushing activities.

Sugarcane has a limited growing season and cannot be stored as it starts fermenting as soon as it is cut, while corn ethanol units can produce year-round.

But Raizen chief executive Ricardo Mussa dismisses any immediate impact. "Corn ethanol figures are very linear. It is quite predictable," he told Argus. "Volumes are not enough to change the inter-harvest equation in the shorter term."

Looking ahead, corn ethanol industry body Unem predicts that production will reach 10bn l (172,320 b/d) by 2030, or more than 20pc of the Brazilian fuel market. For the 2023-24 season, which started in April, the association expects output to reach 6bn l, rising by almost 37pc from the previous season.

Brazil's corn-based ethanol production'000 l
AnhydrousHydrousTotal ethanol
Harvest season
2022-231,768,1102,664,0084,432,118
2021-22988,5922,477,6543,466,246
2020-21670,8571,909,5172,580,374
2019-20439,6281,183,9281,623,556
2018-19234,282557,149791,431
2017-1890,391431,094521,485
2016-1736,641197,506234,147
2015-1619,851121,438141,289
2014-1510,83774,04584,882
2013-144,89331,14337,036
Brazil's key upcoming non-sugarcane ethanol projects
City/StateInvestmentEthanol capacityFeedstockStart
Group
Agricola AlvoradaCanarana/MTnot disclosednot disclosedcorn onlyearly 2024
ALSJulio de Castilhos/RSR464mn150mn l/yrwinter grainsnot disclosed
Be8Passo Fundo/RSR556mn220mn l/yrcorn, winter grainslate 2024
Brasil Bioenergia (Brasbio)Urucui/PInot disclosednot disclosedcorn onlyearly 2026
Brasil BioFuels (BBF)Boa Vista/RRR220mn100mn l/yrcorn onlynot disclosed
CB BioenergiaSantiago/RSR75mn10mn l/yrcorn, winter grains2024
Coamo AgroindustrialCampo Mourao/PRR1.67bn258mn l/yrcorn only2024-2026
CotrijalNao-Me-Toque/RSR300mn70mn l/yrwinter grainsnot disclosed
Inpasa BrasilBalsas/BAR2.5bn460mn l/yrcorn, other starch-based cropssecond half of 2024
Inpasa BrasilSidrolandia/MSR1.2bnnot disclosedcorn onlysecond half of 2024
Pagrisa & Lucas E3Ulianopolis/PAnot disclosednot disclosedcorn only2024
Tocantins BioenergiaMiranorte/TOR1.1bnnot disclosedcorn only2027
UisaNova Olimpia/MTnot disclosednot disclosedcorn only2025
Viadutos Biorrefinaria de Etanol (VBR)Viadutos/RSR634mn151mn l/yrwinter grainsnot disclosed
Vinema Biorrefinarias do SulGuaiba/RSR2.4bn600mn l/yrwinter grains2026

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20/05/24

Q&A:Shipping needs cultural shift to decarbonise: Total

Q&A:Shipping needs cultural shift to decarbonise: Total

Amsterdam, 20 May (Argus) — A cultural change in buying behaviour and supply patterns is necessary for the shipping sector to meet its decarbonisation targets and may be the biggest hurdle to overcome, strategy and projects director for TotalEnergies' marine fuels division Frederic Meyer told Argus. Edited highlights follow: What is the biggest challenge standing in the way of the maritime industry in meeting decarbonisation targets and the fuel transition ? A cultural change is required — for decades the maritime sector has relied on by-products with high energy density from the crude refining process such as fuel oil. The industry will now have to pivot its attention towards fuels developed for the purpose of consumption within the maritime industry. This will also require time as the sector looks to level up, and it remains to be seen whether there will be enough time to meet the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)'s net-zero by or around 2050 targets. But we have seen some good progress from cargo owners who are seeking scope 3 emissions related documents. How does TotalEnergies see marine biodiesel demand moving in the short term? In the short term, there is little incentive for the majority of buyers in the market. This is due to a lack of any regulatory mandates, as well as limited impact from existing regulations such as the IMO's carbon intensity indicator (CII) and the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS). Despite providing a zero emission factor incentive for biofuels meeting the sustainability criteria under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED), EU ETS is still on a staggered implementation basis beginning with only 40pc this year, rising to 70pc next year and 100pc in 2026. Further, EU ETS prices have been quite low, which also weighed on financial incentives for marine biodiesel. Therefore, many buyers are currently waiting for further incentives and signals from the regulators before purchasing marine biodiesel blends. Another point impacting demand is the current edition of ISO 8217, which does not provide much flexibility when it comes to marine biodiesel blend percentages and specifications. The new 2024 edition will likely provide greater flexibility for blending percentages, as well as a provision for biodiesel that does not meet EN14214 specifications. This will provide greater flexibility from a supply point of view. However, there remains stable demand from buyers who can pass on the extra costs to their customers. And how do you see this demand fluctuating in the medium to long term? If the other alternative marine fuels, such as ammonia and methanol, that are currently being discussed do not develop at the speed necessary to meet the decarbonisation targets, then marine biodiesel demand will likely be firm. Many in the market have voiced concerns regarding biofuel feedstock competition between marine and aviation, ahead of the implementation of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates in Europe starting next year. With Argus assessments for SAF at much higher levels than marine biodiesel blends, do you think common feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO) will get pulled away from maritime and into aviation? With regards to competition among different industries for the same biofuel feedstock, suppliers may channel their feedstock towards aviation fuels due to the higher non-compliance penalties associated with SAF regulations as opposed to those in marine, which would incentivise greater demand for SAF. An area that can be explored for marine is the by-product when producing SAF, which can amount to up to 30pc of the fuel output. This could potentially feed into a marine biodiesel supply pool. So it's not necessarily the case that the two sectors will battle over the same feedstock if process synergies can be found. Regarding fuel specifications, market participants have told Argus that the lack of a marine-specific fuel standard for alternatives such as marine biodiesel is feeding into uncertainty for buyers who may not be as familiar with biofuels. What impact could this have on demand for marine biodiesel blends from your point of view? Currently, mainstream biodiesel specifications in marine biodiesel blends are derived from other markets such as the EN14214 specification from road diesel engines. But given the large flexibility of a marine engine, there is room to test and try different things. For "unconventional" biofuels that do not meet those road specifications, there needs to be a testing process accompanied by proof of results that showcase its safety for combustion within a marine engine. Some companies may not have the means or capacity to test their biodiesel before taking it into the market. But TotalEnergies always ensures that there are no engine-related issues from fuel combustion. Suppliers need to enact the necessary testing and take on the burden, as cutting out this process may create a negative perception for the product more generally. Traders should also take on some of the burden and test their fuels to ensure they are fully compatible with the engine. With many regulations being discussed, how do you see the risk of regulatory clashes impacting the industry? The simple solution would be an electronic register to trace the chain of custody. In the French markets, often times the proof of sustainability (PoS) papers are stored onto an electronic database once they are retired to the relevant authority. This database is then accessible and viewable by the buyer, and the supplier could also further deliver a "sustainability information letter" which mirrors the details found in the PoS. It is important for the maritime sector to adopt an electronically traceable system. What role could other types of fuels such as pyrolysis oil potentially play in the maritime sector's decarbonisation targets? We have teams in research and development at TotalEnergies which are studying the potential use of other molecules, including but not limited to pyrolysis oil, for usage in the maritime sector. It may become an alternative option to avoid industry clashes, as pyrolysis oil would not be an attractive option to the aviation sector. We are currently exploring tyre-based pyrolysis oil, but have only started doing so recently so it remains an untapped resource. We need to figure out the correct purification and distillation process to ensure compatibility with marine engines. For the time being we are specifically looking at tyre-based pyrolysis oil and not plastic-based, but we may look at the latter in a later stage. The fuel would also have to meet the RED criteria of a 65-70pc greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction compared with conventional fossil fuels, so we are still exploring whether this can be achieved. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s cropping conditions mixed: GPA


20/05/24
20/05/24

Australia’s cropping conditions mixed: GPA

Sydney, 20 May (Argus) — Australia's cropping regions show an imbalance as the winter crop planting period progresses, according to the Grain Producers Australia (GPA) latest 2024 season update. The report, which collected perspectives from GPA representatives in different cropping regions, revealed how dryness in Western Australia (WA) and Southern Australia (SA) is in contrast to favourable soil moisture and rainfall levels in the east Australia cropping regions of Queensland, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. WA growers are continuing to dry sow crops awaiting a significant rainfall event or "break" to germinate their crops. While some rain had fallen in May, most of the WA grain belt remains dry. Planting decisions in WA were influenced by the lack of rainfall, anticipated yields and future prices, according to the GPA report. Some growers are considering reducing their canola crop as the future price per tonne was unappealing, while others had already cut back their intended crop because of a dry rainfall outlook until June and the cost of canola seed. Others have withheld canola planting as they wait for a material seasonal break. These perspectives are consistent with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia's May crop report that projected canola area in 2024 would be down overall from 2023 because of dry conditions. The GPA report also stated anxiety among WA growers were heightened because of a relatively poor season last year, along with the ability of some growers to diversify income streams with a government decision to ban live sheep exports by May 2028. Northern and central western NSW had good rainfall and a positive start to the season, while growers in southern NSW were looking for rain to germinate dry sown crops. Victoria has good soil moisture for seeding, although one GPA member said access to some fertilisers was an issue for growers who wanted it on hand for winter. Queensland has had wet weather for its summer crop harvest. The sorghum harvest period, usually finished during February–March, according to GPA, was disrupted by heavy rainfall around Easter. This reduced crop quality and could potentially delay winter crop planting, according to a GPA member. The US Department of Agriculture crop calendar for Queensland indicates the typical planting period for winter crops of barley and wheat is May and April-July respectively. By Edward Dunlop Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Biomass start-ups lift Japan's Renova April power sales


17/05/24
17/05/24

Biomass start-ups lift Japan's Renova April power sales

Tokyo, 17 May (Argus) — Japanese renewable power developer Renova's electricity sales doubled on the year in April, following the start-up of three biomass power plants in the past six months. Renova sold 199,601MWh of electricity — including solar, biomass and geothermal — in April, double the 99,857MWh a year earlier, the company announced on 13 May. The 75MW Sendai Gamo plant in northeastern Miyagi prefecture started operations in November 2023 and produced 40,753MWh in April. The 74.8MW Tokushima Tsuda plant in western Tokushima prefecture, which was commissioned in December 2023, generated 10,870MWh in April. The 75MW Ishinomaki Hibarino plant in Miyagi began normal runs in March and supplied 49,495MWh in April. Renova plans to add 124.9MW biomass-fired capacity in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, with the 75MW Omaezaki plant in central Shizuoka city scheduled to begin commercial operations in July, followed by the 49.9MW Karatsu plant in southern Saga city in December. Omaezaki is currently conducting trial runs and Karatsu is under construction. The additions will increase Renova's biomass-fired capacity to 445MW. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US RIN generation up in April as D4 climbs


16/05/24
16/05/24

US RIN generation up in April as D4 climbs

Houston, 16 May (Argus) — Generation of renewable identification number (RIN) credits in April rose by 12pc, as biomass-based D4 diesel credits posted their second highest monthly volumes ever. Total RIN generation rose to 2.06bn credits in April, up from 1.84bn a year earlier, the US Environmental Protection Agency reported on Thursday. D4 credits continued to lead gains in April, with generation increasing on the year by 29pc to 780mn credits. The only month with greater D4 RIN generation was December 2023. D4 accounted for 38pc of all RINs in April, up from 33pc in April 2023. Ethanol D6 RIN generation rose from a year earlier by 2.4pc to 1.2bn credits, accounting for 58pc of all RINs generated in the month. D6 credits were also up by 4pc from March, a month that was affected by seasonal ethanol plant maintenance. Cellulosic biofuel D3 credit generation rose by 7.6pc from a year earlier to 69mn credits. RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard program. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sinking crop values weigh on US farmer profits in 2024


16/05/24
16/05/24

Sinking crop values weigh on US farmer profits in 2024

Houston, 16 May (Argus) — The cycle of above-average profits that has defined the US agricultural economy in recent seasons is fraying this year as crop prices slacken against elevated expenses. The domestic agricultural sector is forecast to endure a 24pc drop in net cash income this season — the sharpest year-over-year decline in the last decade — underpinned by a 6pc slump in crop sales revenue and modest growth in projected expenses, according to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest industry income statement. This retraction, which kicked off in 2023, forced many growers in key agricultural districts this season to augment non-real estate loans, slow debt repayment and restructure existing loans to meet liquidity requirements thanks in part to sliding global grain and oilseed prices. Lenders within the seventh and 10th Federal Reserve districts, which represent farmers across major growing regions, reported stronger loan demand and tightened working capital during the first quarter — signaling deteriorating farm finances. Working capital is measured as the difference between the value of assets that can be easily converted to cash and debt due within the next 12 months. Lower working capital valuation signals the ability to pay down debt could be challenged. Domestic agricultural working capital this year is estimated 17pc lower from 2023 and 6pc lower than the five-year average, according to USDA data. "Conditions in the US farm economy have tightened alongside lower prices for many key products and higher financing costs," the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported in its quarterly Ag Credit Survey . "Many lenders highlighted growing concerns about deterioration in working capital as a result of low prices, particularly for crop producers." US row-crop growers are expected to endure another season of price deterioration as global markets adjust to supply shocks stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine that rattled wheat values and key input prices for corn and soybeans. Domestic corn, soybean and wheat farm cash prices are projected to slump for a second consecutive season by 5pc, 11pc and 15pc, respectively, according to the latest projections from the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report. Corn growers, specifically, face losses this season amid a 4.6mn-acre cut in planted area from last season in tandem with sinking crop values. Margins are estimated -$65.75/acre, based on the latest new-crop contract close and early-season production volume estimates, after benefiting from peak earnings at $242.33/acre in 2022. Corn is a fertilizer-intensive crop, and changes in farmer profitability can erode input prices. Urea, the most widely traded fertilizer globally, is strongly tied to front-month corn futures and domestic barge prices have sunk to levels last seen in January 2021, tracking lower front-month corn futures since the start of the 2023-24 fertilizer season. Fertilizer expenses account for nearly 40pc of annual operating costs for domestic corn growers on a per-acre basis, with seed costs comprising an average 25pc, according to Argus analysis of USDA data. Plant nutrition expenses, though, surged in 2022 and remained above average in 2023 — reflecting historically elevated fertilizer prices during the same period. The USDA forecasts a 15pc dip in fertilizer costs in 2024 for corn growers, providing some reprieve compared with the last two years despite higher seed and various overhead expenses. "Factors like the rising costs of seeds, fertilizers and other inputs as well as more strict environmental regulations, specifically on water usage, have added to the financial and administrative burden for farmers," said Donnie Taylor, Agricultural Retailers Association senior vice-president of membership and corporate relations. By Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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