Clima é incerteza na oferta de insumo para biodiesel

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Oil products
27/12/23

A antecipação da mistura do biodiesel para 14pc em março elevará os custos dos insumos em 2024, em meio a um cenário de possível quebra de safra de soja em Mato Grosso e alta da exportação de sebo bovino. A Argentina deverá recuperar espaço nos embarques de óleo de soja.

O óleo de soja caiu neste ano influenciado por cinco edições do "dólar de soja" na Argentina, em mudanças feitas para impulsionar a arrecadação de divisas no país vizinho. Em Paranaguá, a perda foi de 30pc, para $890/t fob, conforme dados da Argus para o período entre 6 de janeiro e 22 de dezembro. Já o produto colocado em São Paulo caiu 22,5pc, a R$5.350/t cif.

A cotação do sebo bovino, segunda matéria-prima mais usada no país, registrou queda menor, de 13,15pc, a R$4.950/t cif São Paulo. O avanço nos embarques para o Golfo Americano levou o produto a ser negociado com prêmio ante o óleo de soja no período de março a maio e em outubro.

Participantes ouvidos pela Argus ainda não acreditam na falta de insumo de biodiesel, mas acompanham atentamente as previsões para o clima mais seco no maior produtor da oleaginosa no país e os cortes nas previsões para colheita.

A Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) reduziu no início do mês a estimativa para a produção de soja em 2,2 milhões de t, para 160,2 milhões de t, em 2023-24. No radar está a condição climática desfavorável causada pelo fenômeno meteorológico El Niño.

Mesmo com o corte, o volume é 3,6pc acima do recorde de 154,6 milhões de t no ciclo 2022-23. O Itaú BBA prevê uma colheita de 153 milhões, queda de 7,2 milhões de t, sendo que em Mato Grosso a quebra pode chegar a 20pc, com colheita abaixo de 40 milhões de t.

Um analista de uma trading estima que a mescla em 14pc aumentará a demanda por óleo de soja em 300.000t em 2024. O diferencial da commodity em Paranaguá em relação à Bolsa de Chicago (CBOT) tem ficado mais firme que o de Rosário, na Argentina, devido ao risco climático brasileiro.

O plantio da safra de soja no país está 2,1 pontos percentuais abaixo da temporada passada, em 94,6pc, conforme dados da Conab. O clima no início do ano será essencial para o crescimento das lavouras e poucas chuvas poderão pressionar para cima o preço do óleo vegetal na Bolsa.

Do lado do sebo bovino, o setor de frigorífico e reciclagem animal mantém estável a estimativa para a produção entre 1,1 milhão e 1,3 milhão de t em 2024. Desse total, uma fatia de 35pc costuma ser direcionada para o biodiesel, e o restante dividido entre higiene e limpeza, indústria de alimentação animal e pet food.

O Brasil exportou 198.340t de sebo bovino de janeiro a novembro de 2023, ante 81.348t em todo o ano passado, segundo dados do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC).

A capacidade limitada de tancagem aquecida nos portos impede um avanço mais rápido nos embarques, mas investimentos mapeados nos portos de Porto Alegre (RS), Paranaguá (PR) e Itaqui (MA) deverão dar suporte para as exportações no próximo ano.

Produtores de biodiesel no Brasil começam a olhar alternativas para eventualmente substituir o sebo por outros insumos em períodos em que o produto estiver premiado em relação aos óleos vegetais. Algumas opções são óleo de algodão, óleo de cozinha usado e mix de outras gorduras animais.

Importação

A importação de biodiesel continua no radar da indústria, apesar da decisão do Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) de suspender a autorização para importar biodiesel anunciado pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP).

Ontem, o Ministério de Minas e Energia publicou no Diário Oficial da União (DOU) que o grupo de trabalho com integrantes de nove pastas avaliará os impactos, tendo como premissa preservar o conteúdo nacional e avaliar o novo modelo de comercialização iniciado em 2022.

O setor produtivo, representado pela Frente Parlamentar Mista do Biodiesel (FPBio), estava trabalhando para reverter a decisão. Segundo os produtores, a liberação para importar o biocombustível teria potencial para travar os investimentos da indústria.

A equipe que será criada terá 180 dias para submeter ao CNPE um relatório sobre os efeitos da importação. Este grupo deverá ser montado em até 30 dias.

Por Alexandre Melo

Produção de biodiesel	milhões m³
Ano

2012	2,7
2013	2,9
2014	3,4
2015	3,9
2016	3,8
2017	4,1
2018	5,3
2019	5,9
2020	6,4
2021	6,8
2022	6,3
2023*	7,3
2024*	8,9
2025*	10,1
*Estimativa
— ANP, Abiove

Insumos do biodiesel em 2023 mil m³

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19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

19/12/25

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

19/12/25

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet

18/12/25

Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet

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Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

18/12/25

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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