Iron ore shipments from Western Australia's (WA) four largest producers in the Pilbara rebounded in the week to 17 February, although Cyclone Lincoln could disrupt shipments from 23 February.
The four big Pilbara iron ore producers — Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue and Roy Hill — loaded vessels with a combined 15.81mn dead weight tonne (dwt) of capacity, up from 10-month low of 14.33mn dwt in the week to 10 February but were still 8pc below the weekly rolling average over the past year. The dwt is the maximum capacity of a vessel and overestimates actual shipments by around 5pc.
The rebound in shipments in the latest week reflected Fortescue returning to above average shipments for the first week since its train derailment on 30 December. It came despite a derailment at Rio Tinto on 13 February and continuing quarterly maintenance at Roy Hill.
The Cyclone Lincoln weather system is moving south towards the Pilbara coast with a high chance of reforming as a cyclone close to the Pilbara ports on 23 February before crossing the coast overnight on 23-24 February and weakening as it tracks inland towards the key mining hubs of Tom Price and Newman, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. This would be the first cyclone to affect the Pilbara since Cyclone Isla in April 2023.
Fortescue was the only one of the four producers to ship more than average in the latest week at 3.66mn dwt compared with an average of 3.63mn dwt/week. But it will need to further increase shipments if it is to hit its guidance of 192mn-197mn t for the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June.
BHP, which has also had a below average start to 2024, loaded vessels with 5.35mn dwt capacity, down from 5.53mn dwt the previous week and 7pc below its average of 5.73mn dwt.
Rio Tinto loaded ships with 6.23mn dwt capacity in the week to 17 February, up from 5.13mn dwt in the previous week, which was 5pc below its weekly rolling average. Roy Hill completed its quarterly maintenance programme, loading 576,000dwt that was up from 208,000dwt the previous week but 54pc below its average.
The Argus ICX iron ore index was assessed at $126.70 /dry metric tonne (dmt) cfr Qingdao on a 62pc Fe basis on 9 February prior to the lunar new year holiday, down from an 18-month high of $144.25/dmt on 3 January.
