There is a "significant risk" that policies designed to deliver Denmark's 2030 emissions cut target will not lead to the expected reductions, according to the Danish climate council's annual report.
Plans put in place by the Danish government could cut the country's emissions in line with the targeted reduction of 70pc by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, "if everything goes according to plan", the report published this week found.
But several policies risk not delivering the expected emissions reductions, the council warned, concluding that "it has not yet been demonstrated that the target will be achieved".
This includes Denmark's CO2 tax on industry, the effect of which is "very likely overestimated", the council said.
Tight schedules for the development of carbon capture and storage also pose a risk, the report found. "Even a minor delay in the government's plans for capturing and storing CO2 will make it more difficult to reach the 2030 target," the council warned.
And an announced tax on greenhouse gases from agriculture is "fraught with high risk", the report found, pointing to the likelihood that the government will have to compromise to ensure the sector remains competitive while emissions are reduced.
Denmark also appears off track to meet its EU obligations to cut emissions by 2030 — particularly in the agriculture and transport sectors — if further measures are not introduced, the report said.
The council recommends the government review the industry CO2 tax "as soon as possible to ensure that it leads to the expected reductions", as well as positioning a tax on agricultural emissions as the "driving force" behind the sector's transition.
And the country's diesel tax should be increased further than already proposed by the government, to bring it in line with German tax levels, while more should also be done to promote electric vehicles.
The council also calls for the expansion of solar and wind energy, alongside increased flexibility in the electricity system. And it recommends the government draw up a strategy on the country's biomass consumption, while "fairer incentives for the use and production of biomass should be ensured, so that they reflect the real climate burden".
Denmark looks likely to meet the lower end of its 2025 target to cut emissions by 50-54pc compared with 1990 levels, the council said, owing to updated calculations of emissions from carbon-rich soils.
