Gunvor set for buying spree after windfall: CEO

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
12/04/24

Trading firm Gunvor plans to use part of a massive earnings windfall over the past two years to build out its asset base, its chief executive Torbjörn Törnqvist told Argus.

"Today, we are under-invested in assets so we will change that," Törnqvist said, adding that investments would be broad based and to some extent opportunistic. "We will employ quite a lot of capital in investments."

Independent commodity trading companies are sitting on unprecedented piles of cash after two years of bumper earnings arising from supply chain disruptions and market volatility. While Geneva-based Gunvor is smaller than its peers Vitol, Trafigura and Mercuria, it is still a huge company by most metrics. It reported revenues of $127bn in 2023 and a profit of $1.25bn, following a record $2.36bn in 2022. It has kept most of its earnings in house and had an equity position of almost $6.16bn by the end of 2023 — its highest ever.

Törnqvist is eyeing further growth.

"We will definitely be a much bigger company, that I can say," he replied when asked where he saw Gunvor in 10 years' time. "I think we will grow in tune with the [energy] transition."

Trading firms are looking for ways to keep their competitive advantage, particularly given the uncertainties associated with the energy transition. One emerging trend is an appetite for infrastructure. Vitol is in the process of buying a controlling stake in Italian refiner Saras, which operates the 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery in Sardinia. Trafigura said this week that it is in talks to buy ExxonMobil's 133,000 b/d Fos refinery on the French Mediterranean coast.

Part of the rationale behind these moves is to increase optionality and take advantage of the loss of Russian products to the European market, as well the closure of large chunks of local refining capacity.

Gunvor owns the landlocked 100,000 b/d Ingolstadt refinery in Germany and a 75,000 b/d refinery in Rotterdam, where it plans to shift away from fossil fuel use.

"Many oil refineries have been up for sale and still are," Törnqvist said. Asked if Gunvor was looking for something similar, he said the company is interested in the "right opportunity" whether in upstream, downstream, midstream or shipping.

"It all feeds into what we are doing and all supports our underlying trading," he said.

But Törnqvist suspects a lot of Gunvor's growth will come from gas and power — areas where trading companies are already seeing rising profits. The company made its first investment in a power generation asset late in 2023, when it agreed to buy BP's 75pc stake in the 785MW Bahia de Bizkaia combined-cycle gas turbine plant in Bilbao, Spain. It has signed a slew of LNG offtake agreements in the past year and continues to grow its LNG tanker fleet.

"We're building logistical capabilities in LNG," Törnqvist said.

"Oil is here to stay"

Törnqvist said Gunvor is well placed to navigate the energy transition, and is stepping up investments in renewables and biofuels and expanding into carbon and metals trading.

"There will be disruptions, there will be different paths to the transition in different parts of the world which go at different paces and have different priorities and ways to deal with it," he said. "This will create opportunities."

But Törnqvist is clear that oil and gas will remain an integral part of Gunvor's business.

"We feel that oil is here to stay," he said. "And it will grow for several years."

By Aydin Calik

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29/04/24

Service firms talk up long-term gas prospects

New York, 29 April (Argus) — Leading oil field service firms are bullish on the outlook for natural gas demand in coming years even though the fuel remains stuck in the doldrums for now, with US prices near pandemic lows amid oversupply after a mild winter. "This is the age of gas," Baker Hughes chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says, adding that global demand for the power plant and heating fuel is due to climb by almost 20pc through 2040. "Gas is abundant, lower emission, low cost, and the speed to scale is unrivalled," he says. Halliburton also sees natural gas as the "next big leg of growth" in North America, driven by demand for LNG expansion projects, although its current plans do not envisage any comeback this year. Given a shrinking fracking fleet and lack of new equipment being built, the stage is set for an "incredibly tight market" in future, chief executive Jeff Miller says. A recovery in natural gas activity in the US may not happen until the end of this year or even 2025, Liberty Energy chief executive Chris Wright says. "Customers need to see that prices have firmed, that export volume demand actually is pulling upward at a meaningful rate," he says. On recent first-quarter earnings calls, service firms were upbeat about international growth prospects in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The backdrop remains one of growing demand for oil and gas and an "even deeper focus" on energy security, according to Olivier Le Peuch, chief executive of SLB, the world's biggest oil field service company. SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger, expects overseas growth momentum to make up for a slowdown in North America this year. "The relevance of oil and gas in the energy mix continues to support further investments in capacity expansion, particularly in the Middle East and in long-cycle projects across global offshore markets," Le Peuch says. But results in North America will be depressed by the combination of low gas prices, capital discipline and producer consolidation. International rescue Halliburton expects international revenue growth in the "low double-digits" for the full year, with some margin expansion given the tight market for equipment and labour. Steady activity levels are seen in North America after land completion activity bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rebounded in the first quarter. "The world requires more energy, not less, and I'm more convinced than ever that oil and gas will fill a critical role in the global energy mix for decades to come," Miller says. The positive outlook is reinforced by customers' multi-year activity plans across markets and assets. Baker Hughes forecasts "high single-digit growth" when it comes to the outlook for international drilling and completion spending this year. But customer spending in North America is expected to fall in a "low to mid-single-digit range" when compared with 2023. "We continue to anticipate declining activity in the US gas basins, partially offsetting modest improvement in oil activity during the second half of the year," Simonelli says. Beyond 2024, upstream spending is seen growing further across international markets, albeit at a "more moderate" pace than seen in recent years, according to Baker Hughes. SLB paced a decline among oil service stocks at the end of January when state-controlled Saudi Aramco scrapped plans to increase crude output capacity to 13mn b/d from 12mn b/d. But Saudi Arabia has stepped up its plans to boost gas output, by 60pc by 2030. This new energy mix was not anticipated six months ago, but it will "not have a natural impact on our ambition for growth" in Saudi Arabia, Le Peuch says. And Saudi gas plans will require substantial investment in gas infrastructure, which is a "long-term net positive" for Baker Hughes, Simonelli says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Production, patience driving Canada’s oil sands profits

29/04/24

Production, patience driving Canada’s oil sands profits

Calgary, 29 April (Argus) — Canadian oil sands operators enjoying firm profits on strong production are getting ready for a major boost when a new export pipeline to the Pacific coast goes into commercial service this week. The federally owned 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) remains on track to start operations on 1 May, and the line has already started to bear fruit. More than 4mn bl of Canadian crude is being pushed into the C$34bn ($25bn) expansion for linefill, helping to work down inventory levels in Alberta while lifting local prices relative to international benchmarks, as intended. The largest four oil sands companies — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor, and Imperial Oil — are all shippers on the expansion. They closed 2023 with a new production record of 3.6mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) combined in the fourth quarter, and are targeting further increases as they plan to fill the new pipeline. About 80pc of their output comes from their core oil sands businesses, with the balance from natural gas and offshore projects. The higher output compensated for a slight dip in prices, helping to push profits higher. First-quarter 2024 results are likely to be a similar story, but it is the second quarter when producers look ready to shine as prices climb to multi-month highs. A combined profit of C$26bn in 2023 was a stellar result for the big four oil sands operators, despite a 25pc decline from the record C$34bn set the previous year. Their massive projects are agnostic to daily price swings, instead focused on uptime, long-term fundamentals and capitalising on key step-changes such as the one TMX presents. Patience in the oil sands is key. TMX will cater largely to heavy crude producers, which saw diluted bitumen prices in Alberta rise only slightly quarter on quarter to $58/bl in the first quarter. But climbing global benchmarks in April and a shrinking heavy sour discount with the help of TMX linefill now has the outright price for the crude approaching $70/bl. This is above guidance given in 2024 corporate budgets, and far above oil sands operating costs that for some are as low as $12/bl. The TMX factor TMX will nearly triple the existing 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain system that connects oil-rich Alberta to the docks in Burnaby, British Columbia. The expansion was first conceived more than a decade ago with the intention of being operational by late-2017, but cost overruns and repeated delays put the project in jeopardy. Canadian producers that sought growth during that period of frustration are poised to take advantage of this new era of excess export capacity. CNRL, Cenovus and Suncor have been significant buyers in the oil sands in recent years, doubling down on the world's third-largest deposit of oil while many international companies fled amid regulatory uncertainty. The government itself enabled a foreign operator to leave Canada, buying the Trans Mountain system from Kinder Morgan in 2018. But as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal party sees TMX to completion, and then the line's planned sale, it is also readying legislation towards something more on-brand for climate-concerned Ottawa: carbon capture. A carbon capture and storage (CCS) project spearheaded by Pathways Alliance — a consortium of the six largest oil sands producers — is awaiting federal and provincial help to push their proposal forward. Federal incentives are soon to become law, the Trudeau government said this month, with the expectation that tax credits will advance the massive C$16.5bn project and start to offset oil sands greenhouse gas emissions to meet net zero pledges for all parties involved. TMX represents a new era for Canadian crude producers, but so too does CCS, as it could attract even more investment into Alberta's oil sands region. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March

29/04/24

Japan's ferrous scrap exports slip in March

Shanghai, 29 April (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports declined sharply in March as import demand from Vietnam diminished, while the South Korean market remained bearish. Total exports in March retreated by 17pc on the month and by 10pc from the previous year, reaching 516,000t, according to Japan's customs data. Total exports dropped by 4.6pc on the year to 1.6mn t in the first quarter. Japanese scrap exporters encountered challenges because of declining overseas demand since March, as buyers became more cautious in the face of weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery. Scrap exports will likely remain subdued in the coming months, according to trade sources. Vietnamese buyers were active in the seaborne market at the beginning of the year, but rising inventory levels and uncertainties in the steel sector outlook led them to step back after February. Exports to Vietnam in March dropped by 21pc on the month. The South Korean market is not expected to rise significantly in the near term as domestic scrap prices continued to fall, dropping by $50-60/t over the past three months. "South Korean buyers only fulfilled long-term contracts and stayed away from the spot market," a Japanese trader said. Exports to South Korea plummeted by 38pc to 470,000t in the first quarter. Exports to Taiwan dropped significantly by 41pc from the previous month as buyers were more focused on purchases of containerised scrap. Exports to Malaysia remained steady above 30,000t in March, while exports to the Philippines decreased from 34,000t in February to 13,000t. But a depreciation of the Japanese yen allowed exporters to offer relatively more competitive prices compared to other suppliers, with buyers price sensitive given a sluggish steel market. The yen started to weaken in March, reaching above ¥155:$1 at the end of April from $146.8:$1 in mid-March. Japan ferrous scrap exports (t) Country March % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar '23 Jan-Mar % ± on year Vietnam 210,014 -20.7 20.7 683,821 48.0 South Korea 156,851 -9.8 -32.2 469,644 -38.1 Bangladesh 43,755 13.8 N/A 91,205 79.0 Taiwan 35,329 -40.8 -62.8 140,755 -28.8 Others 70,023 -20.6 -7.2 213,587 3.0 Total 515,971 -17.4 -10.4 1,599,011 -4.6 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction

29/04/24

BP inks another LNG deal with Korea's Kogas: Correction

Corrects total volume of LNG supplied in paragraph 2 Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — BP has signed another long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement with South Korean state-owned importer Kogas, the former said today. BP will provide Kogas with up to 9.8mn t of LNG over 11 years from mid-2026 on a des basis. But other details regarding pricing and the origin of the contracted supplies were not available. This most recent deal is in addition to the existing long-term sales and purchase agreement between the two companies that was signed in 2022. Kogas on 22 April 2022 signed an 18-year LNG purchase agreement to buy 1.58mn t/yr of LNG from BP that will begin in 2025. Australian independent Woodside Energy and Kogas in February signed a sales and purchase deal for term supplies of LNG to South Korea. The deal for 500,000 t/yr on a des basis will start in 2026 and run for 10½ years. Kogas may be seeking more imported term supply as the firm has increased its downstream contractual supply deals. Kogas signed a series of deals to supply gas to subsidiaries of the country's state-controlled utility Kepco in December 2023. By Simone Tam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

S Korea’s SK Innovation sees firm 2Q refining margins

29/04/24

S Korea’s SK Innovation sees firm 2Q refining margins

Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — South Korean refiner SK Innovation expects refining margins to remain elevated in this year's second quarter because of continuing firm demand, after achieving higher operating profits in the first quarter. SK expects demand to remain solid in the second quarter given a strong real economy, expectations of higher demand in emerging markets and continuing low official selling price (OSP) levels. This is despite the US Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy and oil price rallies, which are weighing on crude demand. The company's sales revenue dropped to 18.9 trillion won ($13.7bn) in the first quarter, down by 3.5pc on the previous quarter. Its energy and chemical sales accounted for 91pc of total revenue, while battery and material sales accounted for the remaining 9pc. But SK's operating profit increased to W624.7bn in January-March from W72.6bn the previous quarter. This came as its refining business flipped from an operating loss of W165bn in October-December to an operating profit of W591.1bn in the first quarter. SK attributed this increase to elevated refining margins because of higher oil prices, as well as Opec+ production cut agreements and OSP reductions. First-quarter gasoline refining margins almost doubled on the previous quarter from $7.60/bl to $13.30/bl, although diesel and kerosine edged down to $23.10/bl and $21.10/bl respectively. SK Innovation's 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery operated at 85pc of its capacity in the fourth quarter, steady from 85pc in the previous quarter but higher than 82pc for all of 2023. The refiner's 275,000 b/d Incheon refinery's operating rate was at 88pc, up from 84pc in the fourth quarter and from 82pc in 2023. SK plans to carry out turnarounds at its 240,000 b/d No.4 crude distillation unit and No.1 residual hydrodesulphuriser, both at Ulsan, in the second quarter. Its No.2 paraxylene unit in Ulsan will have a turnaround in the same quarter. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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