US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report

Spanish Market: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals
16/04/24

The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum.

Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030.

The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study.

In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs.

The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe).

Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf

Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t.

Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast .

The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe.

Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply.

Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime.

But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study.

By Stefka Wechsler

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

11/10/24

Brazil's drought: Northern rivers continue to drop

Sao Paulo, 11 October (Argus) — The worst drought in Brazil's history continues to reduce river levels in the Northern Arc region, hampering navigation on rivers that are used as waterways and are important routes to transport grains and fertilizers. Madeira waterway The waterway links Rondonia state's capital Porto Velho to the Itacoatiara port, in Amazonas state. Itacoatiara port is expected to receive around 78,100 metric tonnes (t) of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from shipping agency Unimar. Status: The situation is critical in Porto Velho on the Madeira waterway, the second largest in the northern region. The state's ports and waterways authority (Soph) halted operations on 23 September because the Madeira River registered the lowest water level since monitoring began in 1967. The Madeira River's depth in Porto Velho decreased to 24cm on 11 October, from 48cm on 2 October, according to monitoring data from the Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB). Navigation remains suspended in the port. Amazonas waterway It is the main waterway in Brazil's north, handling around 65pc of the region's cargo, according to the national transportation and infrastructure department (Dnit). It links Amazonas' capital Manaus to Para's capital Belem. Status: The Negro River has also been falling. The depth was at 12.25m at the SGB monitoring point in Manaus on 11 October, down from 12.89m on 2 October. This is an extreme drought level and below the historic low of 12.7m recorded in 121 years of monitoring. Tapajos waterway It is an important waterway to move product from Mato Grosso state's northern area, with the Santarem port, in Para state, as a destination. The Santarem port is expected to receive 90,976t of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from Unimar. Status: The Tapajos-Teles Pires waterway is also facing a dire situation. The national water and sanitation agency ANA declared a water shortage on the Tapajos River on 23 September. Drier than usual weather has dropped the levels of Tapajos, especially in the stretch between Itaituba and Santarem cities, in Para state, where flows are below historic minimum levels. The depth of the Tapajos River at the Itaituba monitoring point, where the transfer point for the Miritituba waterway is located, was at 86cm on 11 October, from 87cm on 2 October and below the record low of 1.32m, according to SBG data. At the Santarem monitoring point, where the port of Santarem is located, the Tapajos River was at -6cm, a level considered dry. The level was 25cm on 2 October. The historic minimum at the location is -55cm below the port's reference point. A level below zero does not mean the river is dry, but a negative reading indicates very low conditions. Tocantins-Araguaia waterway The Tocantins-Araguaia waterway encompasses the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. It runs from the Barra do Garcas city, in Mato Grosso, into the Araguaia River, or from Peixes city, in Tocantins state, into the Tocantins River, to the port of Vila do Conde, in Para state. Soybeans, corn, fertilizers, fuels, mineral oils and derivative products are transported via the northern waterways. Vila do Conde port is expected to receive 152,800t of fertilizer in October, according to Unimar. Status: The SGB has two monitoring points on the Araguaia River. In the Nova Crixas city, in Goias state, the river was at 2.84m on 11 October, from 2.87m on 2 October. The river remains below the historical level of 3.10m. In Sao Felix do Araguaia city, in Mato Grosso state, the river was at 2.54m, from 2.55m in the prior week, a situation of extreme drought and close to the historical minimum level of 2.51m. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's Fact extends NPK, NPS tender closing dates

11/10/24

India's Fact extends NPK, NPS tender closing dates

London, 11 October (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer Fact has pushed back the closing dates of its latest tenders to buy 15-15-15, 10-26-26, and 20-20-0+13S. The tenders sought 40,000t of each product , plus or minus 10pc of the respective quantities, and were due to close on 14 October. Fact has amended the 15-15-15 and 20-20-0+13S tenders' closing dates to 18 October, with the 10-26-26 tender now due to close on 21 October. All three tenders asked for the 40,000t total to be split into two 20,000t cargoes. By David Maher Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japanese firms eye developing CCS project in Alaska

11/10/24

Japanese firms eye developing CCS project in Alaska

Tokyo, 11 October (Argus) — Two Japanese firms are looking to develop a carbon capture and storage (CCS) value chain between Japan and US' Alaska state to help achieve Japan's 2050 decarbonisation goal. Japanese trading house Sumitomo and Japanese shipping firm Kline today reached a deal to sign a joint research agreement with US independent Hilcorp, for a strategic partnership to capture CO2 in Japan and transport it on a large liquefied CO2 (LCO2) carrier to storage and injection facilities in Alaska. Oil and gas fields have been developed in Alaska since the 1950s and the total storage capacity of the CCS project is expected to be 50 gigatonnes, equivalent to 50 years' worth of Japan's CO2 emissions, Sumitomo said. The world's first LCO2 transportation for CCS is scheduled to start next year ahead of this project, Kline said. Japanese companies are gearing up efforts to seek overseas storage sites for CO2, as domestic storage sites would be insufficient to store all of the country's possible emissions. Tokyo aims to add 6mn-12mn t/yr of CO2 storage capacity domestically and internationally from 2030, with a target of 120mn-240mn t/yr by 2050. The government has projected that Japan will be able to store up to 70pc of its forecasted CO2 emissions of approximately 240mn t/yr in 2050. Japan's parliament in May allowed the government to ratify the 2009 amendment to the International Maritime Organization's London Protocol that will enable the export of CO2. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Florida ports, fuel supplies, begin recovery: Update 2

10/10/24

Florida ports, fuel supplies, begin recovery: Update 2

Updates more port and terminal conditions, adds daily CBOB/ULSD prices. Houston, 10 October (Argus) — Port Tampa Bay, Florida, docks did not sustain significant damage from Hurricane Milton, the port authority said Thursday, a positive sign for resuming fuel imports into the storm ravaged state. Some port buildings were damaged and power remains out, according to preliminary assessments, but the port docks appear to have escaped major damage, according to the port authority. Many roads leading to the port remain flooded, but the port's main gates are accessible. There is no current timeline for the port's re-opening. Damage to Global Partners' Florida fuel terminals is less severe than the company expected, a spokesperson said Thursday afternoon. Global is loading cargoes from its three Port Everglades terminals. Its Tampa terminal is offline and running on generator power due to power outages, but staff are on site working to restore operations. Kinder Morgan is continuing to assess its terminals and pipeline, a spokesperson said Thursday afternoon. Chevron's Tampa refined products terminal remains closed and damage assessments will begin once crews can safely access the facility, a company spokesperson said Thursday morning. The company's terminals in Panama City and Port Everglades are operational. Citgo said it found no major damage at its Tampa terminal after an initial assessment but a more detailed inspection is ongoing as it works to restore operations. Buckeye, which shut Tampa terminals ahead of the hurricane, did not immediately respond to requests for information on the status of its operations. Tampa spared the worst Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Thursday that Port Tampa avoided the worst-case scenario in terms of storm surge and that eastern Florida ports on the opposite side of the state from where Milton made landfall appear largely undamaged. Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Tampa Bay is also the site of major fertilizer operations, including Mosaic's Riverview phosphate plant. The state has 1.5mn USG of diesel and about 1.1mn USG of gasoline available to deploy in its emergency response, DeSantis said. Florida's highway patrol continues to escort fuel tankers making deliveries to gas stations and has completed about 130 escorts after some stations ran dry earlier this week as Floridians stocked up on fuel and evacuated coastal regions. DeSantis said he expects gas stations to reopen "very quickly, at least that's our hope." Prices for Florida CBOB delivered at Tampa and Port Everglades rose by 8.51¢/USG to $2.17/USG today while prices for Florida ULSD rose by 7.09¢/USG to $2.39/USG. Cash differentials in the waterborne ULSD markets and gasoline cargo markets were little changed. About 3.4mn Floridians were without power early today after Hurricane Milton came ashore south of Tampa Bay late Wednesday night as a category 3 storm. Utility crews are assessing the damage from high winds, tornadoes and flooding, and starting to restore power. The number of customers without power dipped below 3mn Thursday afternoon. Restrictions were lifted Thursday at a number of Florida ports closed for the storm, the Coast Guard said, while others are expected to open in the next day. By Nathan Risser and Cooper Sukaly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Port Tampa Bay begins hurricane recovery: Update

10/10/24

Port Tampa Bay begins hurricane recovery: Update

Adds comments from Florida governor, information on fuel supplies. Houston, 10 October (Argus) — Port Tampa Bay, Florida, docks did not sustain significant damage from Hurricane Milton, the port authority said early today, a positive sign for resuming fuel imports into the storm ravaged state. Some port buildings were damaged and power remains out, according to preliminary assessments, but the port docks appear to have escaped major damage, according to the port authority. Many roads leading to the port remain flooded, but the port's main gates are accessible. Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Thursday that Port Tampa avoided the worst-case scenario in terms of storm surge and that eastern Florida ports on the opposite side of the state from where Milton made landfall appear largely undamaged. The state has 1.5mn USG of diesel and about 1.1mn USG of gasoline available to deploy in its emergency response, DeSantis said. Florida's highway patrol continues to escort fuel tankers making deliveries to gas stations and has completed about 130 escorts after some stations ran dry earlier this week as Floridians stocked up on fuel and evacuated coastal regions. DeSantis said today he expects gas stations to reopen "very quickly, at least that's our hope." Port Tampa Bay officials are working with the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Coast Guard and others to assess landside and seaside operations. There is no currrent timeline for the port's re-opening. More than 3mn Floridians are without power today after Hurricane Milton came ashore south of Tampa Bay late last night as a category 3 storm. Utility crews are assessing the damage from high winds, tornadoes and flooding, and starting to restore power. Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Tampa Bay is also the site of major fertilizer operations, including Mosaic's Riverview phosphate plant. Chevron's Tampa refined products terminal remains closed and damage assessments will begin once crews can safely access the facility, a company spokesperson said just after 11am ET today. The company's terminals in Panama City and Port Everglades are operational. Fuel terminal operators at Port Tampa Bay such as Citgo, Kinder Morgan, Global Partners and Buckeye Partners told Argus they are currently evaluating their facilities to determine when they can resume operations. Individual port tenants will decide independently when to restart their own activities. By Cooper Sukaly and Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more