US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report
The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum.
Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030.
The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study.
In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs.
The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe).
Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf
Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t.
Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast .
The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe.
Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply.
Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime.
But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study.
Related news posts
Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market
Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market
London, 29 April (Argus) — Norway's 6pc advanced biodiesel mandate for marine, which came into effect in October, has done little to incentivise the uptake of physical marine biodiesel blends at Norwegian ports, market participants told Argus . As of October 2023, bunker fuel suppliers in Norway must ensure that a minimum of 6pc, on a volume per volume basis, of the total amount of liquid fuels sold per year consists of advanced biofuel in the form of fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO). The mandate is only applicable to bunker fuels sold in the domestic market, impacting vessels operating between Norwegian ports as well as local tugboats, offshore supply barges, and fishing vessels. Market participants confirmed that the mandate operates on a mass-balance system at the moment, such that the mandate could also be met by supplying the equivalent amount of biofuels into the inland road sector. Consequently, participants said that very few buyers end up purchasing the physical marine biofuel blends, and instead marine fuel suppliers have had to utilise the mass-balance system to meet their mandated targets. This has resulted in a premium added onto conventional bunker fuels in Norwegian ports of about $56-60/t on average. A market participant described the current system as "like a CO2 tax", with most marine fuel buyers paying the premium rather than purchasing a marine biodiesel blend directly. Participants told Argus that HVO is popular and frequently used in road transport because of its superior specifications compared with biodiesel and its generally low freezing point. Norway's HVO imports typically originate from the US — Kpler data shows that about 68.4pc of HVO flows into Norway have originated from there this year. This is mainly because Norway does not apply the same anti-dumping measures as EU nations, which typically put a substantial premium on US-origin biodiesel imports. Norwegian shipowners going internationally are exempt from being liable to the additional premium imposed by the mandate. But participants told Argus that they usually have to pay the premium and then claim it back from the Norwegian Environment Agency (NEA). The system may change very soon. Market participants told Argus that the NEA is considering some changes to the mandate requirement. A gradual move away from the mass balance system is being discussed, in favour of a physical product mandate that would require biofuel blends to be sold to bunker fuel buyers. Further, a switch from an annual reporting system to a monthly one could also be on the cards. NEA is also reportedly looking at mandating the availability of marine biodiesel at all Norwegian ports and biodiesel fuel reconciliation at the tank rather than terminal. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year
Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year
London, 29 April (Argus) — Europe's largest fertiliser producer Yara's European gas consumption in the first quarter was up by 26pc on the year, but remained far lower than in the second half of last year. Norway-based Yara's gas consumption across Europe in January-March totalled 29.2 trillion Btu, well above the 23.1 trillion Btu a year earlier, but drastically down from 37.5 trillion Btu in the fourth quarter last year, the company's latest quarterly report shows. Yara did not report its European ammonia production for the first quarter, but the company's global output totalled 1.74mn t, up from 1.38mn t a year earlier. Yara's first-quarter European gas consumption fell from the preceding three months, despite its average European gas costs falling to $11.70/mn Btu from $13/mn Btu. The firm's European gas costs have declined sharply since peaking at $34.50/mn Btu in the third-quarter 2022, when European wholesale prices hit all-time highs ( see price graph ). Yara's quarterly spending on European gas supplies fell to $343mn in January-March, the lowest since at least summer 2021 when the company began reporting this data, and around one third the $1.08bn peak in April-June 2022. Yara's European gas consumption also fell despite a 37pc annual increase in total fertiliser deliveries in Europe . Lower curtailments, improved production economics and "volume catch-up" had supported output, Yara said. But while European deliveries improved on the year, they remained "below normal" — particularly for nitrates — and Yara sourced a larger share of its European deliveries from its global plants, the company's chief financial officer Thor Giaever said. Yara had hinted earlier this year its ammonia assets might run at 90pc or more of capacity as the company expected to boost production this year . But one explanation for the lower gas demand compared to the previous quarter is Yara may be maximising production at more efficient plants like Sluiskil in the Netherlands and Brunsbuttel in Germany, while ramping down less efficient plants, allowing the company to maintain or increase production while consuming less gas. Yara last year curtailed 19pc of its European ammonia capacity , turning towards greater imports of ammonia to replace the lower production. And that remains key to Yara's business plans , which the company said last week focused on "further strengthening operational resilience and flexibility". Argus assessed European ammonia production prices based on the TTF front-month price at roughly a $100/t discount to northwest European import prices in its last weekly assessment on 25 April, suggesting a still-significant financial incentive to produce ammonia domestically. The European fertiliser market remains under pressure by large volumes from Russia, meaning Europe has swapped an energy dependency on Russia for a food dependency, chief executive Svein Tore Holsether said, echoing previous statements . Comparing global assets Yara consumed 54.4 trillion Btu of gas globally in January-March, down from a multi-year high of 61.9 trillion Btu in October-December ( see consumption graph ). European consumption accounted for roughly 54pc of Yara's global gas demand in January-March, well down from 61pc in the previous quarter. And Yara spent $485mn on gas worldwide in January-March, 71pc for European supply, a lower proportion than at any other point since 2021. Yara's global average gas cost was $8.90/mn Btu in January-March, 24pc below its reported European cost. That discount has been a significant driver for Yara and others to increase production abroad rather than in Europe over the past two years. Yara forecasts its European gas costs at $9.70/mn Btu and $10.50/mn Btu in the second and third quarters of this year, respectively, holding well above its global average gas costs of $7.70/mn Btu and $8.40/mn Btu during those same periods. Globally, the firm aims to produce 8.6mn t of ammonia in 2025, significantly up from 7.8mn t in 2023, it said. By Brendan A'Hearn Yara European vs global gas costs $/MMBtu Yara European vs global gas consumption million MMBtu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's RCF seeks 100,000t of NPS
India's RCF seeks 100,000t of NPS
London, 29 April (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer RCF has issued a tender to buy two 50,000t lots of 20-20-0+13S. RCF requests delivery of the first lot by 10 June and the second by 20 June. The tender is to close on 3 May, and offers must be valid until 7 May. The tender is open only to suppliers with which RCF has signed long-term agreements. RCF in February bought just over 30,000t of Saudi Arabian 20-20-0+13S from a trading firm at around $359/t cfr duty unpaid, equating to $377/t cfr duty paid/free. The Argus assessment for Indian imports of the grade has remained broadly flat since, largely because of a lack of trade. Indian importers have been buying mainly NPK grades — particularly Russian-produced 10-26-26 — while high stocks have helped to ensure little NPS activity. But the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for 20-20-0+13S being raised by just 11pc season on season , compared with 19pc for 10-26-26 and 20pc for 12-32-16, has also helped to nudge demand towards the latter products. By David Maher Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India's Fact issues tender to buy 15-15-15
India's Fact issues tender to buy 15-15-15
London, 29 April (Argus) — Indian fertilizer producer and importer Fact has issued a tender to buy two 20,000-30,000t lots, plus or minus 10pc, of 15-15-15 product. The tender closes on 13 May at 14:30 Indian Standard Time (IST). The first shipment should be delivered to the port of New Mangalore before 20 June, and the second to Tuticorin during 1-15 July. If suppliers cannot meet these timelines, they can offer to the nearest available date, and these submissions will be considered in the absence of offers that match Fact's desired dates. Offers can be made for either shipment or both. By David Maher Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more