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US Gulf lowest-cost green ammonia in 2030: Report

  • Market: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals
  • 16/04/24

The US Gulf coast will likely be the lowest cost source of green ammonia to top global bunkering ports Singapore and Rotterdam by 2030, according to a study by independent non-profits Rocky Mountain Institute and the Global Maritime Forum.

Green ammonia in Singapore is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,100/t, Chile at $1,850/t, Australia at $1,940/t, Namibia at $2,050/t and India at $2,090/t very low-sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) in 2030. Singapore is also projected to procure green methanol from the US Gulf coast at $1,330/t, China at $1,640/t, Australia at $2,610/t and Egypt at $2,810/t VLSFOe in 2030.

The US Gulf coast would be cheaper for both Chinese bio-methanol and Egyptian or Australian e-methanol. But modeling suggests that competition could result in US methanol going to other ports, particularly in Europe, unless the Singaporean port ecosystem moves to proactively secure supply, says the study.

In addition to space constraints imposed by its geography, Singapore has relatively poor wind and solar energy sources, which makes local production of green hydrogen-based-fuels expensive, says the study. Singapore locally produced green methanol and green ammonia are projected at $2,910/t and $2,800/t VLSFOe, respectively, in 2030, higher than imports, even when considering the extra transport costs.

The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 47mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Singapore's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia (about 1.89mn t VLSFOe) and green methanol (3.30mn t VLSFOe).

Rotterdam to pull from US Gulf

Green ammonia in Rotterdam is projected to be sourced from the US Gulf coast at $1,080/t, locally produced at $2,120/t, sourced from Spain at $2,150/t and from Brazil at $2,310/t.

Rotterdam is also projected to procure green methanol from China at $1,830/t, Denmark at $2,060/t, locally produce it at $2,180/t and from Finland at $2,190/t VLSFOe, among other countries, but not the US Gulf coast .

The study projects that fossil fuels would account for 8.1mn t VLSFOe, or 95pc of Rotterdam's marine fuel demand in 2030. The remaining 5pc will be allocated between green ammonia, at about 326,000t, and green methanol, at about 570,000t VLSFOe.

Rotterdam has a good renewable energy potential, according to the study. But Rotterdam is also a significant industrial cluster and several of the industries in the port's hinterland are seeking to use hydrogen for decarbonisation. As such, the port is expected to import most of its green hydrogen-based fuel supply.

Though US-produced green fuels are likely to be in high demand, Rotterdam can benefit from EU incentives for hydrogen imports, lower-emission fuel demand created by the EU emissions trading system and FuelEU Maritime.

But the EU's draft Renewable Energy Directive could limit the potential for European ports like Rotterdam to import US green fuels. The draft requirements in the Directive disallow fuel from some projects that benefit from renewable electricity incentives, like the renewable energy production tax credit provided by the US's Inflation Reduction Act, after 2028. If these draft requirements are accepted in the final regulation, they could limit the window of opportunity for hydrogen imports from the US to Rotterdam to the period before 2028, says the study.


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15/02/25

Peru backs Saudi critical minerals hub plan

Peru backs Saudi critical minerals hub plan

Munich, 15 February (Argus) — Peru's foreign minister Elmer Schialer today said he supports US policy backing Saudi Arabia's efforts to become a global critical minerals powerhouse, a strategy that aims to counterbalance China's dominance and bring down costs. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Schialer called the US approach "a good strategy". Schialer was responding to a question on whether the US' backing of Saudi Arabia's efforts to become a critical minerals refining and processing hub was a good idea. "I think we ought to give it a try, because when we have two, three or four main centers of refinement and the finalizing the product, the cost will also eventually go down, which is also very important, economically speaking," Schialer said. Led by the US, western countries are keen to loosen China's stranglehold on access to critical minerals. China controls about 90pc of the world's capacity for processing the minerals and has steadily tightened restrictions on exporting the materials and technology needed to process them. Beijing imposed new restrictions on exports to the US in late January in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports to the US from China. Saudi Arabia in recent years has made strides in positioning itself on the global critical minerals map. As part of its economic diversification plan Vision 2030, the kingdom aims to strengthen local processing and industrial value added, while building supply chains that are more resilient to global disruptions. Saudi Arabia also has reiterated its commitment to developing its substantial reserves of copper, gold, rare earths, potash, and bauxite, while also expanding domestic electric vehicle manufacturing. Riyadh in January unveiled plans to develop a new mineral investment project valued at $100bn, $20bn of which was already in the final engineering phase or under construction. The kingdom's Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources increased its estimate of the value of its unexploited mineral resources from $1.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion in early 2024, boosted by new discoveries. State-controlled Aramco has also created a joint venture with Saudi state mining company Ma'aden to explore and produce energy transition minerals. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Biomethanol-methanol diff widens, UK demand ticks up


14/02/25
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14/02/25

Biomethanol-methanol diff widens, UK demand ticks up

London, 14 February (Argus) — The spread between biomethanol and conventional methanol is the highest in more than nine months, at $734/t. This is partly driven by falling European methanol prices, with the methanol fob Rotterdam barge quote hitting $348.97/t on 12 February, the lowest since 7 August. Increased imports from the US, and the restart of a 900,000 t/yr capacity European plant have put downward pressure on prices. Biomethanol values ticked higher in recent sessions, tracking gains in the wider biofuels complex after record low values for renewable fuel tickets — tradeable credits generated primarily by the sale of biofuel-blended fuels — in major European demand centres in 2024. European demand for biofuels in 2025 could be supported by a combination of higher mandates for the use of renewables in transport, and by changes to regulations on the carryover of renewable fuels tickets in Germany and in the Netherlands . UK biomethanol prices and demand rise In the UK, the Argus cif biomethanol price has averaged $1,110/t so far in February, a $22/t increase from January and a $60/t rise from the September 2024 average, when prices hit a record low. The price averaged around $1,094/t in February last year. Prices have been in part supported by stronger renewable fuel ticket prices (RTFCs) in the UK recently, according to market participants. UK 2025 non-crop RTFCs averaged 25.45p in the first quarter of 2025 so far, an increase of 1.88p when compared with the previous quarter. Demand picked up in the UK and the wider European market, including from voluntary sectors, at the beginning of the year, participants said. Biomethanol is used as a gasoline blending component in the UK. Consumption in the country in 2024 rose by 45pc on the year but was lower by 7.9pc than in 2022 at 58mn litres, according to the third provisional release of the 2024 Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation statistics. The Argus biomethanol fob Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) netback quote was $1,083/t on 12 February. FuelEU fuels demand The January rollout of the FuelEU Maritime regulations could increase demand for biomethanol in shipping. Ship operators traveling in to, out of and within EU territorial waters must reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis by 2pc. The reduction rises to 6pc from 2030 and gradually reaches 80pc by 2050. Shipping companies can choose from a range of alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions. Only dedicated ships can run on methanol alone, but many companies, including Maersk , have ordered dual-fuel vessels that can run on methanol and traditional bunker fuels, along with biofuel blends like B24 — a mix of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) biodiesel. International offtake agreements for renewable methanol are also on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers including Equinor , Proman and OCI Global , and has an agreement with Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind for 500,000 t/yr from 2024. Biomethanol and e-methanol are likely to be the most competitive and scalable pathways to decarbonisation this decade, Maersk said . While relatively small, Maersk's 'green marine' fuel consumption, which includes biomethanol, increased by 38pc in 2024 to 3,034 GWh. Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said it will buy biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting from 2024. Biomethanol bunker sales in the port of Rotterdam dropped by more than half in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the third quarter, to 930t, but sales were 86pc higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to Port of Rotterdam data . UDB risk to biomethanol imports The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels from the Union Database for Biofuels, if relying on natural gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, has been slowing some negotiations for 2025 biomethanol imports — particularly from the US — according to market participants. Industry bodies have expressed concerns about implementation of the database, particularly that it will impede the bloc's biomethane development. Burdensome fees, overly strict deadlines, risk of double counting, and a significantly increased number of participants required to enter data will slow market growth, said the European Compost Network and the European Waste Management Association. They recommend mandatory use of the UDB be postponed until 1 January 2026 "at the earliest". By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Development Bank invests in US e-SAF producer


14/02/25
News
14/02/25

Japan’s Development Bank invests in US e-SAF producer

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Republic Services finishes Indiana sorting center build


14/02/25
News
14/02/25

Republic Services finishes Indiana sorting center build

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US-based materials recovery facility operator and hauler Republic Services has finished construction on its second polymer center in Indianapolis, with initial income from the plant expected in the second half of the year, the company said in its earnings call. Republic Service's polymer centers are secondary sorting facilities that produce recycled polyethylene terephthalate flake and color sort high-density polyethylene and polypropylene waste to sell to reprocessors. Republic Services faced some challenges in the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 with startup costs for equipment and getting specifications correct for customers at its operational polymer center in Las Vegas, but after those initial hurdles, the company was "feeling good" about them, chief executive John Vander Ark said. The company's prior assumptions about production in Las Vegas in terms of selling price, costs, volume sold, and the willingness of customers to pay were really "strong" and "positive," he added. Republic Services finished construction on its Las Vegas polymer center in December 2023. The polymer centers are strategically located next to joint venture Blue Polymers' facilities. Republic Services plans to provide feedstocks to Blue Polymers in order to produce pelletized and compounded recycled resin. Blue Polymers is expected to finish construction on its first plant in Indianapolis in mid-2025, Republic Services said. Republic Services aims to spend $75mn on new polymer centers in 2025. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol


13/02/25
News
13/02/25

US reciprocal tariffs could hit Brazilian ethanol

New York, 13 February (Argus) — Brazil's growing ethanol industry is a likely target for "reciprocal" US tariffs that President Donald Trump plans to impose on products from countries that he says discriminate against US imports. In announcing the plan Thursday to raise US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on US exports, Trump did not specify which countries and products would face the new levies. But a White House fact sheet specifically mentions Brazil's treatment of US ethanol as an unfair practice worth addressing. "The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5pc. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18pc," the White House said. The US produces more ethanol than any other country, almost all derived from corn. Brazil, the world's second largest ethanol producer, largely uses sugarcane as a feedstock but has a fast-growing corn ethanol industry, too. The disparity in tariff rates has long frustrated US producers, who have become reliant on export markets since ethanol's growth in the US is limited by rising vehicle fuel efficiency, electric vehicle adoption and regulatory constraints on higher blends. The US exported more than 1.9bn USG of ethanol last year according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an all-time high. Renewable Fuels Association general counsel Ed Hubbard told Argus last week that his organization raised the issue of Brazilian tariffs with Trump transition staffers, and the office of senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he discussed the same at a recent meeting with Jamieson Greer, Trump's nominee to be US trade representative. Greer said at a recent Senate hearing that Brazil's tariff on US ethanol was among his top priorities. Federal agencies are planning to review trade disparities and report back by 1 April, potentially giving countries like Brazil some time to consider policy changes that might avoid tariffs. Hubbard said he sees the threat of tariffs as a tool to bring Brazil back to the negotiating table on reducing its own restrictions, potentially allowing more US ethanol to enter the country and meet increasingly ambitious national targets for biofuel adoption. At the same time, Brazil could negotiate for changes to US trade barriers, such as a tariff rate quota system for sugar imports and a new 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. If the US does ultimately increase taxes on Brazilian ethanol, trade flows might not change much in the near term. Ethanol trade between the two countries has already dropped off significantly, and the US is oversupplied with renewable fuels used to meet federal blend mandates. While essentially all foreign ethanol in the US is from Brazil, the US imported less fuel ethanol in 2024 than in at least 30 years. But new tariffs would hurt LanzaJet, a US biofuel producer with a plant that imports Brazilian ethanol and refines it into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the company says it can and does use other feedstocks, federal and state clean fuel programs treat Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as lower-carbon. LanzaJet thus earns larger subsidies for producing fuel from sugarcane ethanol than if it used more corn ethanol, which is generally too carbon-intensive to qualify for a new US biofuel tax credit. "Tariffs impacting nascent industries like SAF will undoubtedly hurt the United States' potential to continue to lead in this space — limiting our ability to import necessary resources and export our own for the global market, given aviation is a global industry," LanzaJet vice president for corporate affairs Meg Whitty said. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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