Etanol hidratado impulsiona início da safra 2024-25

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels
26/04/24

A produção de etanol no Centro-Sul aumentou 7,2pc na primeira quinzena de abril em relação ao ano passado, com produtores ainda favorecendo o hidratado em meio à demanda crescente.

As usinas da região entregaram 841.000m³ ao mercado na primeira quinzena da safra de 2024-25, em comparação com 784.000m³ no mesmo período do ano anterior, segundo os dados mais recentes da União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia (Unica).

A produção de etanol hidratado subiu 39pc e impulsionou a alta anual, totalizando 693.000m³. Já o processamento de anidro, utilizado como mistura na gasolina, caiu 48pc, para 174.000m³.

As usinas permanecem destinando mais matéria-prima para o E100, em um cenário de paridade favorável para o biocombustível frente à gasolina na bomba. O hidratado está mais vantajoso para os motoristas em 80pc do mercado de combustíveis leves, disse a Unica.

As plantas do Centro-Sul venderam 1,3 milhão de m³ de etanol para o mercado doméstico em abril, salto de 41pc na variação anual. As vendas de hidratado representaram 902.355m³ deste total, alta de 61pc, enquanto as de anidro subiram 14pc, para 448.431m³. Já as exportações totalizaram 52.104m³, queda de 6,2pc.

O mix de produção na quinzena foi de 56,4pc para o etanol e 43,6pc para o açúcar, em comparação com 62pc para o biocombustível no mesmo intervalo em 2023.

No período, a moagem de cana-de-açúcar avançou 14pc, para 15,8 milhões de t, à medida que a temporada inicia suas operações.

Até 16 de abril, 171 usinas estavam operando no ciclo de 2024-25, número maior do que as 166 no mesmo intervalo do ano anterior. A Unica espera que mais 54 unidades recomecem as atividades durante a segunda metade do mês.

O etanol à base de milho representou 32pc do volume total produzido na primeira parte de abril, somando 270.500m³, crescimento de 12pc na comparação anual.

Por Laura Guedes

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22/05/25

Etanol: Inadimplência em Cbios divide prêmio de anidro

Sao Paulo, 22 May (Argus) — Os prêmios dos contratos de etanol anidro para 1º junho-31 de maio recuaram em relação ao ciclo anterior para a maior parte do setor, mas distribuidoras inadimplentes na Política Nacional de Biocombustíveis (Renovabio) acordaram percentuais mais elevados que a média neste ciclo. Os prêmios para a indexação de contratos da próxima temporada ficaram entre 12-13pc, após rodadas de negociações marcadas por incertezas e maior dispersão entre os prêmios pedidos pelas partes vendedoras e as compradoras. No ciclo passado, os prêmios se aproximaram da faixa entre 13-14pc. Nas mesas de negociações, as distribuidoras que seguraram até o último momento do prazo garantiram os diferenciais mais baixos, segundo apuração da Argus . As inadimplentes buscaram assegurar os contratos logo no primeiro momento, temendo sofrer com uma falta de suprimento. Isso porque algumas das maiores usinas - e outras de menor porte também - decidiram não vender para varejistas em desconformidade com as metas de créditos de descarbonização (Cbios) . A decisão visa evitar sanções, já que a lei que endureceu as punições no âmbito do Renovabio começará a penalizar também os agentes que negociam com inadimplentes a partir do ano que vem. Os contratos de anidro fechados agora ainda estarão vigentes no início de 2026. Isso dividiu as negociações de anidro em dois eixos, entre aqueles em conformidade – a maior participação de mercado – e os inadimplentes, que somam cerca de 10pc do mercado de combustíveis em volume de vendas, de acordo com dados da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). No grupo das adimplentes, que inclui as grandes as empresas de distribuição, os prêmios recuaram, em parte, pelo aumento da oferta de anidro. A ampliação de produto disponível reflete a expansão da produção do biocombustível a partir de milho e a demanda continuamente forte pelo hidratado na bomba ao longo de 2024. A recusa de parte das produtoras de vender para inadimplentes também pesou. Além disso, a falta de anúncios mais contundentes sobre a implementação do E30 frustrou expectativas de que pudesse haver um ganho maior na procura pelo anidro neste ciclo. Participantes do mercado especularam que o Governo Federal informaria, em 25 de abril, durante um evento do setor em Minas Gerais, um cronograma para a aplicação do aumento do mandato de mistura do etanol na gasolina a 30pc – o que não se concretizou. Na outra ponta, as usinas que aceitaram negociar com distribuidoras em desconformidade com o Renovabio cobraram mais pelo risco embutido na operação. Há relatos de prêmios de até 13,8pc nessa parte do mercado, disseram participantes à Argus . O anidro é comercializado com diferencial em porcentagem sobre o preço do hidratado no mercado à vista. Pelo menos 70pc dos extratos dos contratos com vigência no ciclo de 1º de junho até 31 de maio de 2026 foram entregues no início de maio, como determina a ANP. Por Maria Lígia Barros Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

21/05/25

Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

Mexico City, 21 May (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF lowered its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the growing impact of US tariffs on the economy. GDP is now expected to grow just 0.1pc in 2025, according to IMEF's May survey, down from 0.2pc estimates in April, 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. The number of respondents forecasting a contraction in GDP rose to 16, or 37pc of the sample, from nine in April. While the US has granted some exemptions and discounts for Mexican goods meeting regional content rules, IMEF said the effective tariff rate on Mexican exports remains higher than that for Canada, Brazil, India, Vietnam and others. "We're already seeing the [tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, adding that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US. Trade is also being hit by a screwworm outbreak in cattle that led to port closures last week and curtailed beef exports, which account for $1.3bn in annual exports. More automakers could relocate or scale back production in Mexico, Herrera said, after Stellantis confirmed plans to shift some operations to the US and recent reports Nissan may close one or both of its Mexican plants. In response, Mexico this week sent deputy economy minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez to Tokyo to meet with Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and Honda executives. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 200,000 in May from 220,000 in April. Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported only 43,500 new jobs over the past 12 months as of 5 May. Beyond trade, IMEF flagged uncertainty from recent constitutional reforms and the potential for a US tax on remittances as additional risks to growth. The group held its 2025 inflation forecast steady at 3.8pc, despite Mexico's consumer price index rising to 3.93pc in April from 3.80pc in March . IMEF noted concerns about a potential rebound in inflation later this year after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc on 8 May — the third such cut in 2025. The group now sees the end-2025 rate at 7.75pc, down from 8pc previously. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.80/$1, slightly lower than the Ps20.90/$1 forecast in April. The peso recently strengthened to Ps19.34/$1, though Herrera said this reflected dollar weakness more than peso strength. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin

21/05/25

EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin

New York, 21 May (Argus) — Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin stressed Wednesday that the US is working quickly to propose and finalize new biofuel blend mandates. EPA last week sent proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 — and likely at least one future year — to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review, the final step before a draft rule can be released. Zeldin referenced that process at a Senate hearing Wednesday and said "we expect the proposed rule to be finalized and released very soon." Asked by US senator Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska) whether the agency was planning on releasing something by summer or fall, Zeldin said he was eyeing a "much, much faster" timeline. "We'll finalize this as quickly as we possibly can," he said. Zeldin has stressed at recent House and Senate hearings that the agency is expediting the months-delayed rulemaking. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to blend annual amounts of different types of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply. EPA decisions on volume mandates — and on requests for exemptions from small refiners — are highly influential for crop feedstock demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices. Zeldin said last week at a House subcommittee hearing that EPA was also weighing what to do with a backlog of requests from small refiners for exemptions from program requirements. "None of these were getting approved at all in the last administration," Zeldin said. "We want to get caught up as quickly as we can." EPA has not commented more recently on its specific timeline and plans, but the agency said earlier this year that it wanted to get the frequently delayed biofuel program back on its statutory timeline. The Clean Air Act requires new volumes to be finalized 14 months in advance of a compliance year, which in this case would require proposed volumes for 2027 to be released soon for public comment and then finalized before November this year. A coalition of industry groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and Clean Fuels Alliance America, have pushed the agency to hike the biomass-based diesel mandate from 3.35bn USG this year to a record-high 5.25bn USG next year. Other groups, including fuel marketers, have urged more caution given a sharp drop in biofuel production to start 2025 and uncertainty about the future of a federal clean fuel tax credit being renegotiated in Congress. As part of the White House process, outside groups can seek meetings with the Trump administration to present their views on a pending regulation. Meetings are scheduled through 4 June on the proposed volumes — and through 9 June on a related rule to cut last year's cellulosic biofuel quota — though the US has expedited the process before. Last year, President Joe Biden's administration cancelled previously scheduled meetings on the initial proposal to cut cellulosic targets as a way to more speedily exit the review process. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

20/05/25

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway to implement ReFuelEU Aviation by 2027

20/05/25

Norway to implement ReFuelEU Aviation by 2027

London, 20 May (Argus) — Norway is planning to implement the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulations "as soon as possible, and no later than 2027", according to the transport minister. ReFuelEU Aviation entered into force in the EU on 1 January 2025, and will eventually require a 70pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) share in all EU airports from 2050. Norway is not part of the EU, but it wants the regulations to be incorporated into the European Economic Area (EEA) and into Norwegian law as soon as possible to "contribute to a level playing field in aviation in Europe". ReFuelEU would require Norwegian aircraft operators to gradually increase the volume of SAF in their fuel mix, starting with a 2pc share in 2025. "The government now wants to implement this as soon as possible," said transport minister Jon-Ivar Nygård. Norway established a sales requirement in 2020 that required aviation fuel suppliers to blend 0.5pc SAF. Norway's biofuels mandates align with EU sustainability criteria under the original renewable energy directive (RED) I, as part of EEA agreements. Norway has made stricter requirements for biofuels sales from the beginning of this year . It was consulting on three options for increases to the biofuels blending obligations for 2026 and 2027, in April . By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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