Ukraine soybeans feel destination markets squeeze

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 14/05/24

Ukraine's soybean exporters could find it difficult to maintain the pace of shipments to their traditional markets in the last four months of the 2023-24 season, as abundant global soybean supplies pressure prices.

Argus has forecast that Ukraine will export 3mn t of soybeans in the 2023-24 marketing year (September-August), with the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) projection 100,000t higher.

Ukraine's cumulative soybean exports had reached 2.54mn t at the end of April, customs data show. This means that about 500,000t of soybeans remains to be exported in May-August to hit the full-year projections. For comparison, Ukraine exported nearly 574,000t in the same four months of last year.

But abundant global soybean supply this season has pressured prices, including in some traditional destinations for Ukrainian-origin soybeans such as Egypt and Turkey. Many buyers are choosing US and Brazilian soybeans over Ukrainian, as their products are being offered at a discount of $10-15/t on a cif Egypt basis, a trader told Argus. As of 14 May, Ukrainian sellers were offering soybeans at $515/t cif Egypt, compared with bids of $505/t cif Egypt.

Egypt and Turkey

Ukraine exported about 95,400t of soybeans to Egypt in March, while April shipments were 30,500t.

The USDA projects Egypt soybean imports at 2.8mn t this season, with about 1.55mn t already imported by the end of April, Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. The US and Brazil supplied more than 800,000t of that, while Ukraine delivered about 700,000t in September-April.

Ukraine exported 51,000t of soybeans to Turkey in March, but only 4,300t in April, according to customs data.

For the whole 2023-24 season, the USDA expects Turkey to import 3.1mn t of soybeans. In September-March, the country imported 1.47mn t, with volumes from Ukraine significantly down in March from the previous month, and arrivals from Brazil and the US offsetting this drop, according to GTT.

In total, Ukraine supplied about 580,000t of soybeans to Turkey in September-March, GTT figures show.

Ukrainian soybeans are likely to continue to be less competitive on the Egyptian and Turkish markets until the end of this season, because of large supplies from the US and Brazil.

Higher local prices

Ukrainian soybean prices remain firm, with buyers ready to pay $430-435/t cpt Reni/Izmail for the oilseed in the past seven days. Such prices — once transshipment costs and freight rates are added — make Ukrainian soybeans less competitive on a cif Egypt and cif Turkey basis.

As a result, exporters have to look to other markets, such as Germany and the Netherlands. But deliveries by train and truck through Ukraine's western borders remain logistically complicated, leaving sea shipments the only viable option for traders.

That said, with only about 500,000t of soybeans left for Ukraine to export to reach the 2023-24 projections, the available selling opportunities may be enough to hit the target. Even with decreased Ukrainian shipments to Egypt and Turkey, Ukraine April's exports of the product — at 134,000t — were in line with the five-year average of about 133,000t.

Ukraine monthly raeseed exports 000't

Ukraine cummulative soybean exports mn t

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21/06/24

US urges EU to delay deforestation regulation: Update

US urges EU to delay deforestation regulation: Update

Adds comment from an EU official in paragraph six London, 21 June (Argus) — The US government has urged the European Commission to delay the implementation of the EU's deforestation regulation (EUDR), which is due to come into force from 30 December. "We are deeply concerned with the remaining uncertainty and the short time frame to address the significant challenges for US producers to comply with the regulation," US authorities said in a 30 May letter seen by Argus that was signed by agriculture secretary Thomas Vilsack, commerce secretary Gina Raimondo and US trade representative Katherine Tai, and addressed to the commission's vice-president, Maros Sefcovic. The US authorities have together with "several stakeholders" identified four "critical challenges" for US producers to understand and comply with the EUDR: no final version of the EUDR information system for producers to submit the mandatory due diligence documentation has been established yet; no implementation guidance has been provided — with the traceability system expected to launch in November; many EU member states have not designated a competent authority to enforce the regulation; and finally, the EU has an interim decision to classify all countries as standard risk, regardless of forestry practices. Should these issues not be addressed before the EUDR starts being enforced, it "could have significant negative economic effects on both producers and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic", the letter said. "We therefore urge the EU Commission to delay the implementation of this regulation and subsequent enforcement of penalties" until the challenges have been addressed, it added. An EU official confirmed receipt of the US letter to Argus and said the commission would reply in due course. A number of EU member states had also urged the EU to revise the EUDR in March, although the EU environment commissioner said at the time that the EU was ready for implementation and that they did "not see any issues". The EUDR requires mandatory due diligence from operators and traders selling and importing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soya, rubber and wood into the EU. Derivative products that contain, have been fed with or made using cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, soya, rubber and wood — such as leather, chocolate and furniture as well as charcoal, printed paper products and certain palm oil derivatives — are also subject to the regulation. Firms must ensure that products sold in the EU have not caused deforestation or forest degradation. The law sets penalties for non-compliance, with a maximum fine of at least 4pc of the total annual EU turnover of the non-compliant operator or trader. The regulation requires geolocation data for proof of traceability, and does not accept the widely used mass-balance approach, which has often been cited by industries as one major challenge for implementation. The EUDR will establish a system to assess the risk for individual countries, but the US Department of Agriculture has previously said that even if the US were classified as a low-risk country, compliance would still be costly and challenging, and at least $8bn/yr of US agricultural exports to the EU would be affected. By Erisa Senerdem and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US urges EU to delay deforestation regulation


21/06/24
21/06/24

US urges EU to delay deforestation regulation

London, 21 June (Argus) — The US government has urged the European Commission to delay the implementation of the EU's deforestation regulation (EUDR), which is due to come into force from 30 December. "We are deeply concerned with the remaining uncertainty and the short time frame to address the significant challenges for US producers to comply with the regulation," US authorities said in a 30 May letter seen by Argus that was signed by agriculture secretary Thomas Vilsack, commerce secretary Gina Raimondo and US trade representative Katherine Tai, and addressed to the commission's vice-president, Maros Sefcovic. The US authorities have together with "several stakeholders" identified four "critical challenges" for US producers to understand and comply with the EUDR: no final version of the EUDR information system for producers to submit the mandatory due diligence documentation has been established yet; no implementation guidance has been provided — with the traceability system expected to launch in November; many EU member states have not designated a competent authority to enforce the regulation; and finally, the EU has an interim decision to classify all countries as standard risk, regardless of forestry practices. Should these issues not be addressed before the EUDR starts being enforced, it "could have significant negative economic effects on both producers and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic", the letter said. "We therefore urge the EU Commission to delay the implementation of this regulation and subsequent enforcement of penalties" until the challenges have been addressed, it added. The US authorities are understood to not have received a formal reply to the letter from the commission yet. A number of EU member states had also urged the EU to revise the EUDR in March, although the EU environment commissioner said at the time that the EU was ready for implementation and that they did "not see any issues". The EUDR requires mandatory due diligence from operators and traders selling and importing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soya, rubber and wood into the EU. Derivative products that contain, have been fed with or made using cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, soya, rubber and wood — such as leather, chocolate and furniture as well as charcoal, printed paper products and certain palm oil derivatives — are also subject to the regulation. Firms must ensure that products sold in the EU have not caused deforestation or forest degradation. The law sets penalties for non-compliance, with a maximum fine of at least 4pc of the total annual EU turnover of the non-compliant operator or trader. The regulation requires geolocation data for proof of traceability, and does not accept the widely used mass-balance approach, which has often been cited by industries as one major challenge for implementation. The EUDR will establish a system to assess the risk for individual countries, but the US Department of Agriculture has previously said that even if the US were classified as a low-risk country, compliance would still be costly and challenging, and at least $8bn/yr of US agricultural exports to the EU would be affected. By Erisa Senerdem Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shipping industry urges action to stop Red Sea attacks


20/06/24
20/06/24

Shipping industry urges action to stop Red Sea attacks

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Australia’s 2022-23 cattle herd estimate revised higher


20/06/24
20/06/24

Australia’s 2022-23 cattle herd estimate revised higher

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Porto Alegre, Brazil partially reopens post-flood


17/06/24
17/06/24

Porto Alegre, Brazil partially reopens post-flood

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