A tough year for clean hydrogen prospects is giving way to more optimism on projects and demand, writes Pamela Machado
The clean hydrogen sector still lacks tangible progress and final investment decisions (FIDs) for projects remain few and far between, but it is reaching a moment of reckoning essential for market maturity, delegates at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam said this month.
When asked whether they were more or less positive than a year ago, industry participants gave diverging answers, but there was widespread agreement that progress on clean hydrogen has been slower than expected in what one called "the year of doldrums". Increasing material and financing costs, the unstable geopolitical situation and a lack of clarity on regulatory frameworks are just some of the challenges developers have faced.
This is a "grim environment if you were expecting the Swiss army knife approach" to work, industry body the Australia Hydrogen Council chief executive Fiona Simon said, alluding to the misguided expectation that hydrogen could be used across all sectors to help decarbonise. "We are coming to terms" with the real use and appropriate applications of hydrogen, Simon said, pointing to green steel production. "We are converging on the same concepts and same policies."
The industry has reached the point where it is becoming a lot clearer which projects will actually materialise. A greater sense of realism is underpinning discussions, according to Dutch gas company Gasunie chief executive Willemien Terpstra. But delegates widely urged more policy action, especially on the demand side. Spurring on demand will be key to getting to more FIDs, Spanish utility Iberdrola's hydrogen development director, Jorge Palomar Herrero, said. "We can have great intentions and great projects but without the demand they are not going to happen." Even in Europe, which has pushed ahead with efforts to stimulate demand, these have not been enough to spur offtake, Herrero said.
Demand-side incentives alone will likely not be enough and eventually there will have to be consumption obligations too, some said. "Carrots" may help to reduce project costs and kick-start production, but "sticks" will be key, delegates heard. Consumption mandates could accelerate momentum in emerging markets that have big ambitions for exports to future demand centres, World Bank private-sector arm IFC energy chief investment officer Ignacio de Calonje said.
Governments are now ready to act on these requests, according to Brussels-based industry body the Hydrogen Council's director for policy and partnerships, Daria Nochevnik. "The penny has dropped," Nochevnik told Argus, noting that the need for demand-side action was the number one priority outcome of a ministerial-executive roundtable held in Rotterdam this month.
Seeing red, feeling blue
But governments must also remove red tape to speed things up, delegates said. European developers in particular are increasingly frustrated with the paperwork involved in funding applications, German utility Uniper vice-president for hydrogen business development Christian Stuckmann said. Shortening lengthy permitting and funding processes is high on governments' lists, Nochevnik noted.
Some delegates renewed calls for a wider acceptance of "blue" hydrogen — made from natural gas with carbon capture and storage — to address concerns that, if it is up to renewable hydrogen alone, things will start too late or not at all. There appeared to be widespread consensus that blue hydrogen will have a key role to play, especially in a transitional period, as it can already deliver significant emissions reductions. But there is a "stigma" in Europe, industrial gas firm Linde vice-president for clean energy David Burns said. This could hamper its adoption, which many delegates argued the world cannot afford.
