US inflation eases to 3.3pc in May as Fed meets

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas
12/06/24

US consumer inflation eased slightly in May for a second month, a sign Federal Reserve rate hikes are having some success in reining in inflation pressures after a spurt of gains earlier this year.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 3.3pc in May from 3.4pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.4pc over the past year, the lowest reading in three years, from 3.6pc through April.

The energy index rose by an annual 3.7pc, compared to a 2.6pc rise in April, while the gasoline index rose by 2.2pc versus 1.2pc in April. Energy services rose by an annual 4.7pc.

Headline inflation had ticked up from 3.1pc in January amid stronger than expected economic data, prompting the Federal Reserve to delay widely expected rate cuts as it pledged it needed to see more evidence of a "sustained" slowing in inflation.

The inflation report, which came in slightly under economists' median forecasts, comes hours ahead of a Federal Reserve policy announcement today expected to reveal projections on whether Fed members still expect to begin cutting the target rate this year and by how much. Fed policymakers today are widely expected to keep their target rate unchanged.

The Fed hiked its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and has kept it there since as it has battled to bring down inflation that hit a high of 9.1pc in June 2022.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled a 73pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate in September from near 53pc odds Tuesday.

CPI was unchanged from the prior month, the first flat monthly reading in two years, following a 0.3pc monthly gain in April and 0.4pc gains in the prior two months. Core CPI was up by 0.2pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.3pc in April.

The energy index fell 2pc in May on the month after rising 1.1pc the prior month. The food index rose by 0.1pc in May after being unchanged the prior month.

By Bob Willis

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

08/07/25

Immigration raids pressure south Texas scrap flows

Houston, 8 July (Argus) — South Texas ferrous scrap yards are facing inflow headwinds as increased efforts by US immigration officials to detain and deport non-citizens affect peddler traffic and the labor force. Several market participants speaking to Argus on condition of anonymity have reported a steep decrease in scrap inflows along the US-Mexico border in Texas since the start of President Donald Trump's second term in mid-January due to raids by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Sources surveyed by Argus estimated a 25-50pc reduction in scrap being sold to yards in south Texas as a result of the raids, but they struggled to provide a more specific volume of scrap not delivered. Peddler traffic — scrap sold to yards by the public — accounts for a considerable percentage of material acquired by yards in the region, a market participant said. Sources said that many peddlers, as well as some workers at yards, are non-citizens and risk deportation if detained by ICE. The reduction in scrap flows is much larger than what would be seen from peddlers and yard workers who have been detained by ICE or the US Customs and Border Protection agency, they said, and is likely the result of a wider pull back from peddlers, nervous over the risk detention and deportation. Several yards reliant on peddler traffic or undocumented labor have shut in recent weeks, sources familiar with the matter said. ICE has been raiding communities along the border since early in the year when President Donald Trump started his second term. The recently-passed US budget bill allocated $45bn to, in part, hiring "thousands" of new ICE and Border Protection agents. It is unclear how much scrap is sold to US scrap yards by sellers who lack US citizenship, but continued pressure on those sellers and undocumented workers could cause supply tightness and labor shortages in south Texas yards. The monthly Texas ferrous scrap trade is expected to settle today, with several mills bidding all grades flat from June settlements. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU proposes support package for chemicals sector

08/07/25

EU proposes support package for chemicals sector

Brussels, 8 July (Argus) — The European Commission today proposed a package of measures to support the EU chemicals sector, aiming to address high energy costs, global competition and weak demand. The plan includes extending emissions trading system (ETS) compensation to more producers and simplifying fertilizer registration rules. The commission said the simplification measures could save the sector €363mn/yr. The proposals are part of a broader action plan to boost competitiveness and secure supply chains. A new Critical Chemicals Alliance will identify key production sites in need of policy support, including on trade issues such as supply chain dependencies and market distortions. The commission also pledged to apply trade defence measures more quickly and expand chemical import monitoring under an existing surveillance task force. While the commission stopped short of proposing a Critical Chemicals Act — which would legally define specific chemicals for support — it named steam crackers, ammonia, chlorine and methanol as "essential" to the EU economy. The alliance will aim to align investment and co-ordinate support, including through the bloc's Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI) programme. The commission also decided on new rules legally defining low-carbon hydrogen today and said it plans to allow more state aid for electricity-intensive chemical producers by the end of the year. It also encouraged the use of carbon capture, biomass, waste and renewables. EU industry commissioner Stephane Sejourne said the action plan uses "all levers" to put the chemicals sector back on a growth track, with measures to retain steam crackers and other key chemical assets in Europe. He also highlighted efforts to secure domestic demand for "clean and made-in-Europe chemicals". The commission will align fertilizer registration rules with the EU's REACH chemicals framework, applying standard REACH provisions and streamlining the assessment of micro-organisms used in fertilizers. Officials said the changes will maintain safety and agro-economic efficiency standards while allowing a broader range of micro-organisms. For ETS indirect cost compensation, the commission plans to expand the list of eligible chemicals — including organic chemicals and fertilizers — but must first update existing state aid guidelines, a senior EU official said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tokyo unlikely to yield on car levy despite US pressure

08/07/25

Tokyo unlikely to yield on car levy despite US pressure

Tokyo, 8 July (Argus) — The Japanese government is unlikely to offer concessions to the US for an automobile deal in stalled trade talks between the countries, even after Washington announced plans to raise tariffs on Japanese imports. Each government has its own interests to defend, the country's minister for trade and industry (Meti) Yoji Muto said on 8 July, reiterating that the automobile sector is a key industry for the Japanese economy and is vital to national interests. Muto reiterated Tokyo's intention to pursue a resolution through negotiations, but without compromising its core economic priorities. This suggests that there is little space for Tokyo to accept auto tariffs imposed by the US. This comes after US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose additional tariffs of 25pc on all imports from Japan from 1 August, slightly higher than the initial rate of 24pc set in April. Trump threatened to impose an even higher levy if Tokyo moves to retaliate against the measure. "We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with Japan, and have concluded that we must move away from these long-term, and very persistent, trade deficits engendered by Japan's tariff, and non-tariff policies and trade barriers," Trump said in his official letter to the Japanese government. "Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal." Tokyo and Washington have held seven trade talks on the US tariff since mid-April without reaching an agreement. Japan was initially seen as a frontrunner among other US trading partners in the negotiation, but progress has stalled partly because of disagreements over the auto sector. The Trump administration has long expressed strong dissatisfaction against the imbalance in US-Japan car trade. Japan exported around 1.3mn automobile units to the US market in 2024, and only purchased 14,724 units of US vehicles during the same period, according to Japanese customs and industry group the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, respectively. Tokyo has declined to disclose the details of the ongoing negotiations, but the country's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba in mid-June reiterated that the automobile sector is vital to Japan's national interests, underscoring the car sector as a key sticking point in the trade talks. By Yusuke Maekawa and Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

07/07/25

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

Calgary, 7 July (Argus) — Alberta and Ontario plan to study new trade routes to boost economic activity between the two provinces and beyond, with an interest in exporting oil and gas through Hudson Bay, leaders said today. Alberta premier Danielle Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford signed two memorandums of understanding to drive interprovincial trade and major infrastructure development, including pipelines and rail lines. The broad intent is to further connect Alberta's energy resources to Canada's most populous province, and on to foreign partners, using steel from Ontario. "Built using Ontario steel, new pipelines would connect western Canadian oil and gas to existing, and potential, new refineries in southern Ontario," said Ford during a joint press conference in Calgary, Alberta. A "potential" new deep sea port at James Bay on the south side of Hudson Bay in northern Ontario would also enable further export opportunities for land-locked Alberta, which is trying to get more pipelines built before growing oil sands production fill existing capacity. Oil and gas would need to flow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Ontario. Alberta has taken an all-of-the-above strategy in its pipeline pursuits, calling for more egress in all directions, including enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets via a 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline to British Columbia's (BC) coast. "Having access to the northwest BC coast is essential to being able to get to Asian markets, and that's the one that we hear the most enthusiasm for," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith, who expects to have some "good news" on that front in a few months. Federal regulations need to be undone: premiers Smith and Ford called on the federal government to significantly amend or outright repeal the onerous Impact Assessment Act and other legislation that has stifled investment, including the oil and gas emissions cap, Clean Electricity Regulations and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act that currently prevents an oil pipeline to BC's northwest coast. "No one will build a pipeline to tidewaters if there is a ban on tankers," said Ford. "It is the craziest thing I've ever heard of . . . a ban on tankers." Ford is the latest premier to side with Alberta's stance on federal oversight after Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe did in June . Ford's automobile , steel and aluminum sectors have been caught in US president Donald Trump's crosshairs, spurring the premier to look elsewhere to shore up trade, including within Canada. But hostilities from south of the border are not new for Ontario, whose refining sector relies on Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 cross-border pipeline. "We have the governor of Michigan constantly threatening to close down the pipeline," said Ford. "Do you know the disaster that would create in Ontario?" To both kickstart a lagging economy and pivot away from the US, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney fast-tracked Bill C-5 through Parliament last month to allow "nation building" projects to bypass regulatory hurdles. To be considered for the new "National Interest Projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. "The days of relying on the United States 100pc, they're done, they're gone," said Ford. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Mato Grosso estimates corn output at 54mn t

07/07/25

Brazil's Mato Grosso estimates corn output at 54mn t

Sao Paulo, 7 July (Argus) — Brazilian central-western Mato Grosso state will produce nearly 54mn metric tonnes (t) of corn in its 2024-25 season, a 7.2pc rise from the prior month's forecast. That is also 14.5pc above the 47.2mn t produced in the 2023-24 crop, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. The productivity outlook increased to 126.3 60kg bags/hectare (ha) from 117.7 bags/ha in June's estimate. That is 9.2pc above the 115.6 bags/ha in the 2023-24 crop. That would be a record for the state and was revised upwards mainly because of rainfalls that favored crop conditions this cycle, even for those areas where planting took place after the ideal planting window. The expected planted area remained stable from June's outlook at 7.13mn ha, a 4.9pc hike from the prior cycle. Cotton lint Imea increased its outlook for 2024-25 cotton lint production to 2.79mn t, slightly above the 2.76mn t in June's estimate. That is a 7.4pc hike from 2023-24 production. The planted area increased by 1.2pc on the month to 1.5mn ha, almost in line with the previous month's outlook. The area is 4.2pc ahead of the 2023-24 season. Yield estimates remained at 297 15kg bags/ha. Soybeans Mato Grosso's 2025-26 soybean crop outlook remained at 47.2mn t, stable for the third consecutive month but down by 7.3pc from 2024-25. Soybean yields are expected to reach 60.45 60kg bags/ha, flat from June's outlook and an 8.8pc drop from the 66.29 bags/ha in the 2024-25 season. The expected planted area remained at 13mn ha, 1.7pc above the 12.8mn ha in 2024-25. The current soybean yield outlook is based on the average of the last three cycles and should remain stable until planting — which begins in mid-September — progresses. By Sofia Zizza Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more