Beryl enters GOM, heading towards Texas: Update
Updates hurricane watch and status of Texas ports and lightering zones.
Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon, with a likely second landfall in Texas on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 65mph, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5pm ET advisory, but the tropical storm is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane again as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico, with forecasts pointing to a landfall late Sunday or early Monday from far northeastern Mexico to the eastern Texas coast.
The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas, about 80 miles southwest of Houston. Heavy rainfall of 4-8 inches is expected by Sunday into next week.
The US Coast Guard changed the status of the port of Corpus Christi, Texas — a key US oil export hub — to "X-ray" at 3pm ET Friday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive at the port within 48 hours. All commercial traffic and transfer operations can continue during X-ray, but the Coast Guard said ocean-going commercial vessels greater than 500 gross tons should make plans to depart the port.
Corpus Christi is also home to three refineries totaling 800,000 b/d of capacity. Citgo said it is implementing its hurricane preparedness plan at its 165,000 b/d refinery there.
The ports of Houston, Texas City, Galveston and Freeport were set to port condition Whiskey at 5:05pm ET Friday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive within 72 hours. The ports remain open to all commercial traffic.
Ship-to-ship transfers off the Texas coast proceeded as normal on Friday but will be postponed off Corpus Christi beginning Sunday. The US National Weather Service (NWS) forecast winds up to 90mph and waves up to 32 ft at the Corpus Christi lightering area on Sunday and Monday before calmer conditions return Tuesday.
Ship-to-ship transfers are expected to be postponed at the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area early next week due to the same conditions.
Most of Mexico's Gulf coast ports were closed today and many offshore oil production operations.
The impact to US Gulf oil and gas operations so far appears to be limited, with BP determining forecasts "indicate Hurricane Beryl no longer poses a significant threat" to its offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell had taken the precaution of shutting in production and evacuating all staff from its Perdido platform and its Whale development, which is scheduled to begin operations later this year.
"We have safely paused some of our drilling operations, but there are currently no other impacts on our production across the Gulf of Mexico," the company said late on Thursday.
Earlier this week, Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July, as it left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean.
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Opec+ members delay output increases to December
Opec+ members delay output increases to December
Dubai, 6 September (Argus) — Opec+ members have opted to delay their plan to start increasing output by two months, against the backdrop of a sharp fall in prices and growing concerns about the oil demand outlook. Eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are now scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" crude production cuts from December, instead of October, over a 12-month period, the Opec secretariat said on 5 September. The plan had carried a proviso that the unwinding was subject to "market conditions". And the return of this supply is still not a foregone conclusion. The eight members retain the "flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary", the secretariat says. If they go ahead with the updated plan, their collective output targets will rise by around 180,000 b/d in December. The delay to the output increase came as Atlantic basin benchmark North Sea Dated fell close to $75/bl on 5 September, its lowest since December, on concerns over oil demand in China and the US. Beijing imported 1.3mn b/d less crude in July than June, taking its monthly tally of receipts down to 10mn b/d, the lowest in nearly two years. The oil price drop has not taken place in isolation, JP Morgan says. "Alongside commodities, US 10-year treasury yields have tumbled (-70bp) and the US dollar index came down by almost 2pc, signalling a shift in the assessment of macroeconomic risk in the US and globally." The Opec+ delay means that any unwinding of its cuts will not come until after the 5 November US elections. But with gasoline prices there not seen at concerning levels and edging down, oil prices are not viewed as much of an election issue. The decision could help establish a floor under prices, which have fallen despite an oil blockade in Libya that has driven the country's production down to around 300,000 b/d, from almost 1mn b/d. Opec+ may also have sought to add further support to prices by emphasising assurance by overproducers Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia on "planned compensation schedules". Promised belt tightening from the three would effectively wipe out most barrels coming back to the market until October 2025 — as long as they deliver. For now, the eight members have chosen to buy time and gain more clarity on how the markets develop in the fourth quarter, while also seeking to tighten the noose on compliance. Come early November, those members will have to determine if the market can handle the incremental increase — if not, Opec+ might be up for some hard decisions in December. Compliance and compensation Compliance by some serial overproducers improved in August, Argus estimates. Russia, which has tended to exceed its targets in recent months, saw its output fall by 70,000 b/d to 8.98mn b/d, bang on its formal output target. And Kazakhstan finally started to deliver on its pledge to start compensating for exceeding its targets, with its output in August coming in 40,000 b/d below its effective target under its compensation plan. The biggest overproducer was usual suspect Iraq, which was 200,000 b/d above its formal target and 290,000 b/d over its effective target under its latest plan to compensate for overproducing. Overall production by Opec+ members subject to cuts was barely changed, easing by 10,000 b/d in August, as falls from Russia and Kazakhstan were offset by increases from Nigeria and the UAE. This drove the alliance's output down to 33.82mn b/d, around 30,000 b/d below its collective target. But the forced outages in Libya drove the group's overall output down by a hefty 300,000 b/d. Libya, like Iran and Venezuela, is exempt from production targets. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Aug Jul* Target† ± target Opec 9 21.54 21.45 21.23 +0.31 Non-Opec 9 12.28 12.38 12.62 -0.34 Total 33.82 33.83 33.85 -0.03 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Aug Jul Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.96 9.00 8.98 -0.02 Iraq 4.20 4.25 4.00 +0.20 Kuwait 2.40 2.38 2.41 -0.01 UAE 2.98 2.94 2.91 +0.07 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.54 1.46 1.50 +0.04 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.24 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.23 0.21 0.17 +0.06 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.54 21.45 21.23 +0.31 Iran 3.33 3.35 na na Libya 0.92 1.20 na na Venezuela 0.88 0.88 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.67 26.88 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Aug Jul* Target† ± target Russia 8.98 9.05 8.98 +0.00 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 +0.00 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.48 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.37 1.41 1.47 -0.10 Malaysia 0.33 0.34 0.40 -0.07 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.05 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.28 12.38 12.62 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Singapore, 6 September (Argus) — Egypt's state-owned gas firm Egas is seeking 20 spot LNG cargoes for delivery over October-December through a tender that will close on 12 September. The firm is seeking 17 deliveries to Ain Sukhna, and three deliveries to Jordan's 3.8mn t/yr Aqaba import terminal, through a tender that closes on 12 September. This tender may create additional competition for spot LNG for European buyers. News of the tender may have contributed to a rise in European gas prices, with the front-month contract at the Dutch TTF trading at over €37.50/MWh in the morning, against an Argus assessment of €36.13/MWh on Thursday. But the TTF lost most of its gains later in the day. Egas was last in the market to seek up to five cargoes for delivery over August-September , through a tender that closed on 29 July. This tender was likely to have been fully awarded at an average of a $1.50/mn Btu premium to the TTF, possibly to TotalEnergies, Gunvor and BP, traders said. Traders in mid-August estimated that Egypt would seek about eight to 15 spot cargoes for winter. Its latest requirement for 20 cargoes may indicate that the country's demand for imports is leaning towards the higher end. At the same time Egas executive managing director Magdy Galal had told Argus this February that Egypt would be able to export in winter 2024-25, "as usual". Europe was the main destination for Egyptian LNG exports in recent years. Egypt shipped 84 cargoes to Europe in the past two years, while only 35 vessels were exported elsewhere. Croatia, Greece, Italy, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK were among the recipients of Egyptian cargoes. Egypt last exported LNG in April, when it delivered 209mn m³ of equivalent pipeline gas, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) show. But Egypt's appetite for spot cargoes is likely to remain, particularly as domestic gas production in the country has been falling. Gas production in Egypt fell to its lowest for seven years in June , the latest Jodi data show. At the same time, its pipeline gas deliveries from Israel have been hit with uncertainty since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Pipeline deliveries from Israel to Egypt fell to 731mn m³ in June from 851mn m³ in May, having reached record highs earlier this year. LNG exports from Egypt this winter are "not very likely" , Italy's Eni said on 26 July. By Rou Urn Lee and Alexandra Vladimirova Egas tender delivery windows Delivery to Ain Sukhna, Egypt Delivery to Aqaba, Jordan 4-5 Oct 2024 16-17 Oct 2024 9-10 Oct 2024 21-22 Nov 2024 14-15 Oct 2024 23-24 Dec 2024 19-20 Oct 2024 24-25 Oct 2024 29-30 Oct 2024 8-9 Nov 2024 13-14 Nov 2024 18-19 Nov 2024 23-24 Nov 2024 28-29 Nov 2024 3-4 Dec 2024 9-10 Dec 2024 15-16 Dec 2024 21-22 Dec 2024 27-28 Dec 2024 31 Dec 2024 - 1 Jan 2025 — Egas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Astomos adds LPG-fuelled VLGC to fleet
Japan’s Astomos adds LPG-fuelled VLGC to fleet
Tokyo, 6 September (Argus) — Japanese LPG importer Astomos Energy has commissioned a very large gas carrier (VLGC) with a dual-fuel LPG engine, adding to its existing fleet of 26. Astomos on 4 September commissioned the 86,953m³ Liverty Pathfinder , which was built by shipbuilder Kawasaki Heavy Industries at its Sakaide shipyard in southwest Japan's Kagawa prefecture and is co-owned by shipping firm NYK. The VLGC is the fourth co-owned vessel with NYK, adding to Gas Capricorn in 2003, Gas Garnet and Gas Amethyst in 2024. The VLGC can use LPG as a bunker fuel from a cargo tank. It is possible to reduce more than 95pc of sulphur oxide and more than 20pc of carbon dioxide emissions when the vessel uses LPG as a marine fuel compared with conventional fuel oil, Astomos said. Japan currently imports 10mn t/yr of LPG to cover 12mn t/yr of domestic demand, according to the Japan LP Gas Association. By Reina Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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