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PCI price relativity to PLV climbs to a high

  • Spanish Market: Coking coal, Metals
  • 09/08/24

Opposing fundamentals in the Australian pulverised coal injection (PCI) market and premium low-volatile (PLV) coking coal market narrowed the price spread between the indexes. But it remains to be seen whether market conditions will continue to support strength in PCI prices.

Market fundamentals of the two products have been vastly different in the past two months, with a mismatch of firm demand and tight supply supporting PCI prices, while PLV continues to decline in an oversupplied market amid a persistently weak steel sector.

The Argus daily fob Australia assessment for low-volatile PCI increased by $25/t from 14 June to $205.50/t on 5 July, the highest level since 6 November 2023, before gradually declining to $185/t on 8 August. But PCI prices remain high, with July's average relativity to the fob Australia PLV index at 83pc compared with an average relativity of 61pc in the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, the Argus-assessed Australian PLV index has fallen by $47.10/t from 2 July to $212.50/t on 31 July, the lowest level since August 2022, before making a small recovery to $215/t on 1 August. Prices held steady for four days before inching down again to $213.75/t on 8 August in a subdued market.

Bottlenecks on Russian railways tightening Russians PCI supply and demand centered in south America, Europe and southeast Asia have contributed to stronger Australian PCI prices. "Russian supply definitely seems tighter than many expected, with a lot of term customers scrambling to bring forward or increase term allocations," an Australian supplier said. "The fob Australia PCI market is currently a seller's market. Buyers are trying to find out what cargoes are available but there are hardly any volumes that can be sold on the spot market as term buyers are still trying to increase term volumes."

Some buyers, particularly in northeast Asia, have also looked to reduce their reliance on Russian coal. "Because of growing US sanctions on Russian suppliers, some buyers are trying to increase their intake of Australian PCI, which is in short supply, so they may not have many options other than to pay up," an international trading source said.

But the switch remains unattractive for buyers with access to Russian supplies as they continued to express reticence towards the recent increase in Australian PCI prices. A northeast Asian buyer that was in the market for August-loading PCI eventually bought Russia-origin PCI at $165/t on a cfr basis on 23 July, noting its price competitiveness when compared with indicative offers of Australian low-volatile PCI at about $200/t fob at that time.

Expectations that PLV prices would fall further have prompted questions about whether current PCI prices can continue to remain firm. "The PCI market remains relatively tight, but if there are end-users in Europe or southeast Asia reselling premium hard coking coal cargoes, it means production is down and they will not need as much PCI as before," an Australian producer said.

"Effectively, PCI is a coke replacement, in that it reduces the amount of coke needed to make a tonne of steel," an international trading firm said. "So if PCI prices get too close to, or above, the other coking coal tiers, you would just make more coke and use less PCI."

Fob Australia PCI vs fob Australia coking coal $/t

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08/11/24

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Calgary, 8 November (Argus) — A labour disruption at the port of Vancouver is now into its fifth day, but the employers association and the locked-out union are to meet this weekend to try to strike a deal and get commodities moving again. Workers belonging to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 514 on Canada's west coast have been locked out by the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) since 4 November. This came hours after the union implemented an overtime ban for its 730 ship and dock foreman members. The two sides will meet on 9 November evening with the assistance of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) in an effort to end a 19-month long dispute as they negotiate a new collective agreement to replace the one that expired in March 2023. The FMCS was already recruited for meetings in October, but that did not culminate in a deal. Natural resource-rich Canada is dependent on smooth operations at the port of Vancouver to reach international markets. The port is a major conduit for many dry and liquid bulk cargoes, including lumber, wood pellets and pulp, grains and agriculture products, caustic soda and sodium chlorate, sugar, coal, potash, sulphur, copper concentrates, zinc and lead concentrate, diesel and renewable diesel liquids and petroleum products. These account for about two-thirds of the movements through the port. Grain operations and the Westshore coal terminal are unaffected while most petroleum products also continue to move, the Port of Vancouver said on 7 November. As the parties head back to the bargaining table, the ILWU Local 514 meanwhile filed a complaint against the BCMEA on 7 November, alleging bargaining in bad faith, making threats, intimidation and coercion. "The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically-elected leadership and bargaining committee, said ILWU Local 514 president Frank Morena on 7 November. "They know their bully tactics won't work with our members but their true goal is to bully the federal government into intervention." But that is just "another meritless claim," according to the BCMEA, who wants to restore supply chain operations as quickly as possible. The union said BC ports would still be operating if the BCMEA did not overreact with a lockout. "They are responsible for goods not being shipped to and from BC ports — not the union," Morena says. The ILWU Local 514 was found to have bargained in bad faith itself already, according to a decision by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) in October. Billions of dollars of trade are at risk with many goods and commodities at a standstill at Vancouver, which is Canada's busiest port. A 13-day strike by ILWU longshore workers in July 2023 disrupted C$10bn ($7.3bn) worth of goods and commodities, especially those reliant on container ships, before an agreement was met. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s domestic EV sales fall further in October


08/11/24
08/11/24

Japan’s domestic EV sales fall further in October

Tokyo, 8 November (Argus) — Sales of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) in Japan fell for a 12th straight month in October, mostly because of a drop in demand for domestic brands. Sales totalled 4,325 units in October, down by 35.1pc from a year earlier, according to data from three industry groups — the Automobile Dealers Association, the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association and the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA). Sales were down by 32.7pc on the previous month. EVs accounted for just 1.3pc of Japan's total domestic passenger car sales last month, down by 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The fall in EV sales was mostly the result of lower sales of Nissan's Sakura, one of the domestic producer's top selling EV models. Sakura sales slumped by 51.6pc on the year to 1,448 units. Sales of foreign brand passenger EVs fell to 1,900 units, down by 4pc on the year. The decline largely reflected reduced supply by Germany's Volkswagen, a JAA representative told Argus . It remains unclear if the downtrend will continue given demand for imported EVs remains high in the Japanese market, the representative added. Imported EVs accounted for around 44pc of the country's total passenger EV sales in October. Japan's largest car producer Toyota on 6 November revised its global EV sales outlook downwards to 160,000 units for the current fiscal year that ends 31 March 2025. This is 11,000 units lower from the initial plan announced in May, the company said. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update 2


07/11/24
07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update 2

Updates with recast outlook of results in paragraph 4 Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared poised to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump his best opportunity to enact his agenda since 2018. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update


07/11/24
07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update

Updates with Powell's comments from press conference after meeting. Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, 2nd cut this year


07/11/24
07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, 2nd cut this year

Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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