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US pipe and tube industry expects pickup in 2025

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Pipe and tube
  • 16/08/24

Tubular goods producers and distributors expect headwinds in the oil and gas industry for the rest of the year, with activity expected to pick up in 2025.

The companies, which sell a mix of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe, tempered expectations for the rest of 2024 as oilfield consolidations and slowing drilling activity weigh on the market.

Pipe producer Tenaris expects its sales volumes to fall by 10-15pc in the second half of the year from the first half. If realized, second-half shipments would drop by 157,000-208,000 metric tonnes (t) (173,100-229,300 short tons) to 1.77-1.87mn t from the first half. The second-half estimate would be 49,000-149,000t lower than the 1.92mn t sold in the second half of 2023.

The Argus US OCTG all-items index for July was flat from the prior month on changes in price inputs. The July index was down by 3pc from June when compared to like price inputs.

French-based global tubular producer Vallourec said it expects US shipments to weaken through the rest of the year. Chief executive Philippe Guillemot said forecasters expect US oil production to slow because of the low level of active drilling rigs.

The number of active oil and gas drilling rigs was 588 for the week ending 9 August, down by 66 from the year prior, according to oilfield service company Baker Hughes.

Pipe and tubular distributors MRC Global and DNOW both see any increases in activity pushing out into 2025.

MRC pointed to gas utility destocking and project delays pushing business into next year.

Weaker gas prices coupled with lower oil and gas budgets and tentative spending before the November US presidential election will slow third quarter US activity, sequentially, DNOW's chief executive David Cherechinsky said.

"The current expectations are that [completions and rig counts] may bottom in the second half of the year or early in 2025," Cherechinsky said on a 7 August earnings call.


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08/11/24

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs

Budapest, 8 November (Argus) — Hungarian integrated oil firm Mol has revised down its 2024 forecast for crude runs at its two landlocked refineries after a "turnaround-heavy" third quarter, it said today. The company expects to refine around 11.5mn t of crude combined at the 161,000 b/d Szazhalombatta plant in Hungary and the 115,000 b/d Bratislava complex in Slovakia this year, down from its previous guidance of about 12mn t. The two refineries processed 8.25mn t of crude in January-September, down from 9.09mn t a year earlier. Their combined crude throughput was down by 11pc on the year at 2.81mn t in the third quarter. Mol carried out scheduled maintenance at Szazhalombatta between 26 July and 19 September and expects to complete maintenance work on petrochemical units at Bratislava in the first half of November. Crude intake at Mol's third refinery, the 90,000 b/d Rijeka plant on Croatia's Adriatic coast, rose by 2.6pc on the year to 802,000t in the third quarter and was largely unchanged year-on-year at 1.26mn t in January-September. The company's crude throughput forecast only includes the Hungarian and Slovakian refineries. Mol cut the share of imported crude in its overall slate to 3.35mn t, or 93pc, in the third quarter from 3.8mn t, or 97pc, a year earlier, while it almost doubled intake from its own crude production to 255,000t in July-September from 129,000t in the same period last year. Szazhalombatta and Bratislava mostly process Russian crude received through the Druzhba pipeline system under an EU oil ban waiver, while Rijeka mainly takes non-Russian seaborne crude. The profitability of Mol's refining business was hit by a 71pc year-on-year fall in its refinery margin indicator — calculated based on the Dated Brent crude benchmark — to just $3.70/bl in July-September. Its oil product sales fell by 4.2pc from a year earlier to 4.88mn t in the third quarter. This included 1.52mn t of products Mol had to buy from third parties to complement its own output and satisfy demand, a significant rise from 1.25mn t of third-party oil products it sold a year earlier. The firm's upstream oil and gas production rose by 11pc on the year to 96,100 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the July-September quarter. It has raised its full-year forecast to about 92,000-94,000 boe/d from previous guidance of around 90,000 boe/d. Mol's profit fell to 111.5bn forint ($295mn) in the third quarter from Ft175.8bn a year earlier. By Béla Fincziczki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s domestic EV sales fall further in October


08/11/24
08/11/24

Japan’s domestic EV sales fall further in October

Tokyo, 8 November (Argus) — Sales of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) in Japan fell for a 12th straight month in October, mostly because of a drop in demand for domestic brands. Sales totalled 4,325 units in October, down by 35.1pc from a year earlier, according to data from three industry groups — the Automobile Dealers Association, the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association and the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA). Sales were down by 32.7pc on the previous month. EVs accounted for just 1.3pc of Japan's total domestic passenger car sales last month, down by 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. The fall in EV sales was mostly the result of lower sales of Nissan's Sakura, one of the domestic producer's top selling EV models. Sakura sales slumped by 51.6pc on the year to 1,448 units. Sales of foreign brand passenger EVs fell to 1,900 units, down by 4pc on the year. The decline largely reflected reduced supply by Germany's Volkswagen, a JAA representative told Argus . It remains unclear if the downtrend will continue given demand for imported EVs remains high in the Japanese market, the representative added. Imported EVs accounted for around 44pc of the country's total passenger EV sales in October. Japan's largest car producer Toyota on 6 November revised its global EV sales outlook downwards to 160,000 units for the current fiscal year that ends 31 March 2025. This is 11,000 units lower from the initial plan announced in May, the company said. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update 2


07/11/24
07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update 2

Updates with recast outlook of results in paragraph 4 Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared poised to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump his best opportunity to enact his agenda since 2018. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update


07/11/24
07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update

Updates with Powell's comments from press conference after meeting. Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US extends oil service firms' Venezuela waiver


07/11/24
07/11/24

US extends oil service firms' Venezuela waiver

Washington, 7 November (Argus) — The outgoing administration of US president Joe Biden extended authorization for oilfield services companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford to continue working in Venezuela until 9 May 2025. The waiver allows the service companies to pay their staff and maintain limited operations, but it prevents them from drilling new wells or otherwise contributing to state-owned PdV's production and exports. The Biden administration reimposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in April, after a six-month reprieve. The sole exemption is a waiver for Chevron allowing it to import oil into the US from its joint venture with state-owned PdV. US crude imports from Venezuela averaged 212,000 b/d in January-August, US Energy Information Administration data show. Chevron's Venezuela output has stood at about 200,000 b/d. Neither president-elect Donald Trump nor his campaign addressed the Venezuela sanctions regime or indicated if they would change it. Republicans in Congress ahead of the election called for the Chevron exemption to be revoked. The Biden administration separately extended a prohibition for holders of $3.4bn in PdV 2020 bonds guaranteed by 50.1pc in US refiner Citgo's holding company to exercise their claim, this time until 7 March 2025. The PdV bondholders in theory hold a superior claim to Citgo Holding — a legal entity that directly owns Citgo and, in turn, is owned by Citgo parent company PdVH. A federal court in Delaware recently oversaw an auction of PdVH shares that yielded a $7.3bn bid from a company backed by investors including Elliott Investment Management. Legal wrangling over the bids and the distribution of auction proceeds is likely to keep Citgo ownership unresolved in the near term. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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