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Open interest hits record high on CME N.EU HRC contract

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 04/09/24

Open interest on the CME Group's north European hot-rolled coil (HRC) contract reached a fresh record high on 3 September.

When the market closed 9,382 lots, the equivalent of 187,640t, was outstanding. The majority of interest centred on January-March, amounting to almost 4,000 lots, but it spread all the way out to September 2025.

August was the highest month so far this year in traded volume terms, with around 115,000t clearing, surpassing January's 105,380t. It was also the highest volume month since February 2023.

The futures activity stood in stark contrast to the physical market, where liquidity was very low as service centres concentrated on destocking rather than buying replacement coils. Tonnage captured in the index formation process in August was the lowest level since April 2023.

Germany's economic issues continue to depress sentiment in the northern European steel market. Weakening demand from some steel intensive end-users, such as automakers, has caused issues for mills throughout Europe, leading to an increase in spot availability at a time of weak appetite. Lead times are around 3.25 weeks, according to recent deals reported to Argus, as producers struggle to fill their rolling programmes.

Argus' benchmark northwest EU HRC index, which the CME contract cash-settles against, dropped to €576/t at the end of August from €605/t at the start of the month.

The futures curve remains in contango, with the front months softening markedly of late. October traded at €595/t today, down by around €25/t over the past week, while January traded at €644/t, after settling at €676/t a week ago. Physical market participants expect prices to grind lower in the coming months, as service centres continue to focus on cash generation, especially those approaching their financial year-end.


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10/10/24

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in Sep

US inflation slows to 2.4pc in Sep

Houston, 10 October (Argus) — US inflation slowed slightly less than expected in September, but still came in at the lowest annual rate since February 2021, in the first major inflation report since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates last month. The headline consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 2.4pc in September, down from 2.5pc in August, according to the Labor Department. The decline was less than the 2.3pc forecast in a survey of economists by Trading Economics. Excluding volatile food and energy, so-called core inflation rose to a 3.3pc annual pace, higher than forecasts for core inflation to match the prior period's 3.2pc pace. Today's report is the final CPI report ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy decision on 7 November and it follows a much stronger than expected employment report for September, which together could prompt the Fed to move more cautiously. Still, CPI has come down sharply from its peak of 9.1pc in mid-2022 and, despite aggressive Fed tightening, hiring has continued at a healthy rate and the overall economic expansion remains on track, partly thanks to falling energy prices. The energy index contracted by an annual 6.8pc pace in September after contracting 4pc through August. The food index rose by an annual 2.3pc following a 2.1pc gain in the prior period. Transportation services rose by 8.5pc. Within energy, the gasoline index fell by 15.3pc after a 10.3pc decline in the prior period. Energy services rose by 3.4pc after a 3.1pc gain. Natural gas services rose by 2pc. Shelter rose by 4.9pc after a 5.2pc gain. Transportation services rose by 8.5pc following a 7.9pc gain. Auto insurance was up 16.3pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in September, matching gains in August and July, Labor said. Shelter rose by 0.2pc and food increased by 0.4pc, together accounting for over 75pc of the monthly headline increase, Labor said. The energy index declined by 1.9pc over the month, after falling by 0.8pc in the prior month . By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japanese scrap exports extend falls in August


10/10/24
10/10/24

Japanese scrap exports extend falls in August

Shanghai, 10 October (Argus) — Japan's ferrous scrap exports continued to decrease in August because of reduced overseas scrap demand and a sluggish seaborne steel market. August exports fell by 14pc from the previous month to 492,000t, data from Japan's customs show. Total exports from January to August fell by 7.4pc on the year to 4.3mn t. The tepid seaborne steel market largely drove slower export activities. Overseas buyers slowed down their purchases of imported scrap, in response to a lower production rate and squeezed profit margins. This caused the scrap price at Tokyo Steel Utsunomiya plant to fall by ¥14,000/t ($94/t) from mid-July to the end of September, bolstering bearish sentiment in the seaborne market. Vietnam remained the top buyer of Japanese scrap, while Taiwanese buyers favoured containerised scrap from the US west coast and South Korean buyers reduced scrap imports from all origins. Mills in Bangladesh withdrew from the seaborne market in July, because of operational disruptions following protests. The Philippines became the fifth-largest buyer in August at 27,067t. Export volumes are expected to increase in the coming months as Japanese scrap prices become more competitive in the seaborne market. Japan's ferrous scrap exports t Destination August % ± vs Jul % ± vs Aug '23 Jan-Aug % ± on year Vietnam 171,520 -25.0 25.4 1,649,616 62.2 South Korea 159,620 34.0 -13.0 1,118,333 -42.9 Bangladesh 59,478 -19.4 -9.2 343,557 21.5 Taiwan 31,176 -5.6 -61.5 432,846 -34.6 Others 70,383 -39.2 -30.2 713,970 4.7 Total 492,177 -13.7 -13.3 4,258,323 -7.4 Source: Japan customs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US September OCTG, line pipe imports may rise


09/10/24
09/10/24

US September OCTG, line pipe imports may rise

Houston, 9 October (Argus) — US imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe products could increase in September. US OCTG imports could be 114,500 metric tonnes (t) in September, which would represent an increase of 15,200t compared to the prior year, according to license data from the US Department of Commerce, which is subject to change. If realized the September OCTG rise would be driven by a potential 19,800t increase from the prior year from South Korea to 60,600t and a 7,700t increase in volumes from Taiwan, up from none in the prior year. Those increases are partially offset by a possible 8,400t decrease in volumes from Canada and a 5,100t decrease from Mexico. If September OCTG import volumes do rise, it will be only the second month since May 2023 that import volumes have increased year over year. Line pipe imports may jump by 19,200t from the prior year to 101,800t. That increase could be driven by a 9,500t increase in line pipe of unspecified diameter from South Korea to 34,700t, and a 3,900t increase in Japanese volumes for line pipe less than or equal to 16in. By Rye Druzchetta US pipe and tube import licenses metric tonnes Product Sep-24 Sep-23 Difference ±% Aug-24 OCTG 114,521 99,310 15,211 15.3% 129,096 Line pipe* 101,777 82,589 19,188 23.2% 84,940 Standard 56,725 56,488 237 0.4% 63,929 Heavy Structural Shapes 57,682 43,364 14,318 33.0% 66,669 US Department of Commerce; September 2024 data is license data, which is subject to change. *Line pipe is all diameters. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

African petroleum body seeks EU CO2 tax moratorium


09/10/24
09/10/24

African petroleum body seeks EU CO2 tax moratorium

Cape Town, 9 October (Argus) — African states must push for a moratorium on the EU's impending carbon tax when they attend the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month, said the African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO). APPO's secretary-general Omar Farouk Ibrahim made the call at Africa Oil Week currently underway in Cape Town, South AFrica. "As we prepare to go to Baku for Cop 29, I invite those who represent the interests of our continent in the negotiations to sound the alarm on the implications for Africa of the planned implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," Ibrahim said. The mess called climate change was not created by Africans, APPO's secretary-general said. Today's industrialised countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions of the past 120 years, he said. This is the time to sound the alarm and ask for a moratorium on CBAM so that Africa can benefit, he added. "That is what an energy transition is in our opinion. If we don't, we're in for trouble [as] it will stifle our industrial and economic development," according to Ibrahim. Africa deserves better — it cannot develop without fossil fuels, he concluded. By Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Nittetsu in tie-up to develop Chilean Cu mine


09/10/24
09/10/24

Japan’s Nittetsu in tie-up to develop Chilean Cu mine

Tokyo, 9 October (Argus) — Japanese metal producer Nittetsu Mining has agreed to form a joint venture with Vancouver-based exploration firm Camino Minerals to develop a copper mining project in Chile. This comes as part of Nittetsu's mid-term strategy to achieve 50,000 t/yr of copper production by 2033. The 50:50 joint venture betweenNittetsu and Camino plans to develop the Puquios Copper Project in Chile's central Coquimbo region, the Japanese firm announced on 8 October. The investment amount and production volume of crude ore and copper concentrates were undisclosed. But copper equivalent output could be around 15,000 t/yr, according to the Nittetsu representative who spoke to Argus . The Japanese firm is still in discussions with Camino over potential offtake amount, the representative added. The project will start commercial operations after completing the environmental approval process, which could take another few years, Nittetsu said. "This opportunity aligns with Nittetsu's commitment to expanding our footprint in the copper sector by utilising our extensive operational experience and technical expertise", said Nittetsu's general manager Shinichiro Mita. The Japanese firm has separately been developing the Arqueros copper project in Chile since April 2023, with funding by state-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation (Jbic). The company aims to start producing 15,000 t/yr sometime during April 2026 and March 2027, which is similar to the output volume expected at Puquios project. Japan's government strongly encourages domestic firms to secure copper supply sources. The country's strategic energy plan was revised in 2021, with an aim to lift base metal self-sufficiency to 80pc by 2030, up by around 30 percentage points from the 2018 level. But the strategy appears to not be on track, the country's ministry of trade and industry Meti said in September, although it did not disclose the current rate. Nittetsu expects copper price is likely to remain bullish in the mid-to long term, given higher copper demand driven by decarbonisation and electrification efforts. But the price could face higher volatility in the short term, the company said in July. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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