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Washington voters waver on GHG repeal: Poll

  • Spanish Market: Emissions, Natural gas
  • 16/09/24

Support for a repeal of Washington's carbon market in the upcoming November election may be softening, while a repeal targeting the state's plans to phase out natural gas may be gaining strength, according to a recent public opinion poll.

The poll — which canvassed 403 registered state voters by phone and online earlier this month — indicates just under a clear majority of voters leaning towards a "no" vote on initiative 2117, which would repeal language in the state's Climate Commitment Act (CCA) authorizing the state's cap-and-trade program. A successful repeal would prevent local and state officials from creating a similar replacement for the "cap-and-invest" program.

Data collected in the survey indicates that 46pc of those surveyed would vote against the repeal, with the bulk of voters identifying as Democrat, with 21pc Republican support. The repeal vote received 30pc support, with slightly more than half those surveyed in favor identifying as Republican, and a further 2pc of the total surveyed undecided on the issue.

Washington's "cap-and-invest" program requires large industrial facilities, fuel suppliers and power plants to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 45pc by 2030 and by 95pc by 2050, from 1990 levels. Revenue from state allowance auctions and other related funds is required by state law to be used for critical climate projects throughout Washington.

In contrast, initiative 2066 received a majority support in requiring the state to continue to provide natural gas to utility customers, at 47pc. The ‘no' vote to continue dissuading the use of natural gas in the state as part of the state's energy transition plan garnered 29pc, with a further 24pc undecided. Respondents identifying as Republican formed the bulk of the "yes" vote with 68pc.

Initiative 2066 would repeal HB 1589, signed into law by governor Jay Inslee (D) earlier this year. The law creates planning requirements for certain utilities to comply with a network of state regulations and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and transition away from natural gas in cost-effective ways.

Let's Go Washington, a political action committee, has backed both initiatives over the past year, on the narrative that the state's plans to transition away from natural gas-use and the cap-and-trade program raise fuel and energy prices for families.

The poll, conducted by Cascade PBS/Elway, had 43pc of respondents identify as Democrat, 24pc as Republican and 34pc as Independent. Respondents were primarily ages 36 and older, from western regions of the state and with the majority, at 34pc, from suburban areas.

Under state law, either initiative will need to receive a majority of total votes cast to pass in the 5 November election.


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08/11/24

California LCFS set for key decision Friday: Update

California LCFS set for key decision Friday: Update

Adds comments from meeting. Houston, 8 November (Argus) — Fuel producers today urged California regulators to preserve incentives in a newly uncertain market as residents asked them to start over with greater ambitions for a zero-emission future. California regulators may toughen carbon-slashing targets and raise hurdles for crop-based fuels to participate in North America's largest Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). On Friday California's Air Resources Board heard hours of final testimony on a rulemaking that has been underway for nearly a year — and on the verge of running out of time — to restore shrinking incentives in the state's program to decarbonize road fuels. The decision comes amid growing outcry over the cost of diversifying the state's fuel portfolio passed on to drivers. Choices made on incentives in the largest US renewable fuels and electric vehicle charging markets may offer some clarity to markets now roiled by uncertainty over the approach an incoming second Donald Trump administration will take. "The tools in our toolbox may become much more limited going forward," board chairwoman Liane Randolph said in opening remarks. "While we will do everything we can to protect our authority in California and our existing programs that we have to clean the air, we know that we must do all we can to use our existing state authority to bring clean fuels to California." Board consideration was not expected until late in the day. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limit incur deficits that suppliers must offset with approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new renewable diesel production that quickly overwhelmed the deficits generated from petroleum gasoline and diesel use in the state. LCFS credits do not expire, and leftover credits available for future compliance grew to 29.1mn metric tonnes by July. The program generated 22.4mn deficits in all of 2023. Tougher targets on tap Board approval of amendments considered today would immediately toughen program targets for 2025 by 9pc. The one-year drop would nearly double reductions first proposed last year, and require cuts six times deeper than the typical year-to-year change in targets. Regulatory staff published models in April suggesting such a target could thin a smothering inventory of excess credits available for future compliance by 8.2mn — roughly a third of the available excess credits. Other proposals would take longer to begin. California would require new attestations about land use for crop-based feedstocks by 2026, shifting toward tougher verification requirements for such feedstocks by 2031. Regulators would limit credit generation for existing suppliers of biodiesel and renewable diesel made from soybean oil or canola oil credits to only 20pc of such fuels they supply to California by 2028. And CARB would begin phasing out outsized credit generation from renewable natural gas used in transportation in 2040, after locking-in incentives for current projects regardless of any regulations that would mandate methane reductions. The program has faced a late push of opposition from fuel suppliers and environmental critics highlighting costs to previously unaware drivers. The campaign inspired an unusual volume of public comment filings in October from residents focused on gasoline costs. Hours of public comment included numerous residents near dairies and other infrastructure critical of incentives that continued operations worsening their air quality, as well as environmental groups opposed to incentives not focused on electric transportation. "This proposal is simply not worthy of your vote," Earthjustice staff attorney Nina Robertson said. "It represents a grab bag of giveaways to polluting special interest that have turned what was once a program for climate progress into a piggy bank for their false climate solutions." But CARB faces a 5 January deadline to approve the proposals. Missing it would restart the regulatory process, which staff has said could take another two years to complete. Credits available for future compliance nearly tripled over the past two years. Renewable natural gas, electric vehicle and even biofuels groups wary of elements of the proposal have issued statements of support this week. "While there is always room for improvement, in our view, there's no reason to delay adoption of this proposal today," Neste US president Peter Zonneveld said. "There is no time to waste." Randolph has repeatedly defended the program in public appearances as the temperature on fuel costs concerns rose. Board member Dean Florez said ahead of the meeting that he would vote against the amendments, citing what he considered a lack of clearer information on potential cost and emissions impact. "The opacity has eroded confidence in our intentions and planning," Florez wrote in a guest editorial. CARB's choices will ripple across fuel supply strategies around the world. California used two thirds of the renewable diesel consumed in the US during the second quarter, and access to the market can determine feedstock margins. With immediate federal choices on biofuel tax incentives or possible feedstock sanctions uncertain, clarity on California's may offer suppliers one of the fuel planning footholds this year. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Austria to ask EU to act if German gas levy not removed


08/11/24
08/11/24

Austria to ask EU to act if German gas levy not removed

London, 8 November (Argus) — Austrian energy regulator E-Control will "take all necessary steps" at an EU level if it looks like a law to abolish Germany's storage levy on gas exiting the country will not be passed in time, it told Argus today. E-Control will take action in close co-operation with the Austrian ministry, the European Commission and energy regulators' group Acer before the end of December if needed, the regulator's executive director, Alfons Haber, told Argus . The regulator is "very much concerned that the announced abolishment of the German gas storage levy at cross-border exit points is at risk now", Haber said. But E-Control remains optimistic that the German government will fulfil its promise to abolish the gas storage levy from 1 January 2025. The collapse of the German government earlier this week has made it uncertain whether parliament can pass the required bill in time. The German storage levy — set at €2.50/MWh at present — was introduced in 2022 to cover losses incurred by German market area manager THE to fill gas storage sites ahead of the winter. But the levy made the German import route uneconomical for its southern and eastern neighbours, which last year asked the EU to intervene. Germany agreed to scrap the levy on cross-border interconnection points in May , saying at the time that the change would have to be ratified by an act of parliament. The levy "severely impacts cross-border gas flows in Europe and has strong negative effects on the CEE region", Haber told Argus . Particularly in light of the risk that Russian gas transit through Ukraine would end after 1 January, German imports would become more significant for Austria, in which case the levy would "hurt" even more, Austrian market area manager AGGM board member Bernhard Painz said. Scope for levy law to be passed in time The incumbent government hopes to pass some bills "that cannot be delayed" before the end of this year, the chancellor said on 6 November. Economy and climate minister Robert Habeck on 7 November said he expects the interests of the government and the "democratic opposition" to align on energy security. But Habeck does not expect "a great deal of helpfulness", and "it remains to be seen" whether some decisions can be made together with the opposition on a case-by-case basis, he said. Major opposition party CDU today voiced a desire for an earlier election date in German parliament, asking Scholz to schedule a vote of no confidence as early as next week. This would drastically reduce the chance of any bill being passed before the end of this year. The chancellor today said he was open to a "sober" discussion about the election date. Scholz expressed hope that the "democratic factions of parliament" could agree on which laws can still be passed this year. This common understanding could determine the "right moment" to trigger a vote of no confidence, he said. Only the chancellor can call a vote of no confidence under the German constitution. The opposition can do so only if they elect a new chancellor at the same time. Bill is not controversial among democratic parties Democratic parties showed no opposition to the bill to change how the storage levy is charged during its first reading in parliament, suggesting it could be passed as one of the bipartisan projects if it is high enough on the agenda. The bill, introduced to parliament in August , was framed as a way to align the storage levy with EU rules. The government asked for it to be expedited. The upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, passed the law on to the lower house without comments on the proposed changes. During the first reading of the bill in the lower house, no democratic party raised any concerns about the law. CDU instead framed it as an attempt to fix what the government had done wrong in 2022. Then-governing parties the Greens, SPD and FDP were in favour of the law in light of its positive effects on EU solidarity. BMWK was not immediately available for comment on whether the storage levy was on the list of laws that the government would try to push through before the end of this year. By Till Stehr and Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau


08/11/24
08/11/24

Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau

Toronto, 8 November (Argus) — Canada's climate policies will be overhauled if prime minister Justin Trudeau loses an upcoming federal election, but the Conservative Party might not move to roll back all of the programs. Trudeau over nine years in office has pushed through a raft of carbon pricing policies, cracked down on provinces with insufficiently ambitious plans, and even started a global "challenge" to spur more jurisdictions to price emissions. But Canada's policies have exacerbated cost-of-living concerns at a time when voters across the world are punishing incumbents for inflation, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has barnstormed the country with a pledge to "axe the tax." An election must happen no later than October 2025, and the ruling Liberals are down significantly in polls. "We are going to see change, significant change," said Lisa DeMarco, a senior partner at the law firm Resilient and a member of the International Emissions Trading Association board at the Canada Clean Fuels and Carbon Markets Summit in Toronto, Ontario, this week. What "axe the tax" might mean in practice is uncertain. Inevitable targets are the country's federal fuel charge, currently at C$80/t ($57.54/t) and set to gradually increase to C$170/t in 2030, and a recently proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade program for upstream oil and gas producers. But other policies, especially those with industry support, could remain. The country's distinct system for taxing industrial emissions, which includes a federal output-based pricing system that functions as a performance standard, "will likely be untouched," said former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole. A point of debate at the conference was what Poilievre might do with the country's clean fuel regulations, which function similarly to California's long-running low-carbon fuel standard and have boosted biofuel usage in the country. The policy is "certainly not at the top of the list" of Conservative priorities, said Andy Brosnan, president of low-carbon fuels at environmental products marketer Anew Climate. But that does not mean it will escape scrutiny. Conservatives could tinker with the program or push through more muscular changes like excluding electric vehicles, said David Beaudoin, chief executive of the climate consultancy NEL-i. "We should expect that regulation will be maybe not dismantled but somehow changed, perhaps fundamentally," Beaudoin said. In the gap left by the federal government, provinces could make up the difference with their own climate programs, panelists agreed. Quebec for instance has a linked carbon market with California, and British Columbia has its own low-carbon fuel standard. But policymakers should heed the lessons of Trudeau's declining popularity and reorient how they approach climate policy, O'Toole argued. "Try to be minimally disruptive on economically vulnerable citizens," he said. "Try not to pit industry against industry or region of the country against region." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal


08/11/24
08/11/24

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina’s YPF sees jump in shale oil output


08/11/24
08/11/24

Argentina’s YPF sees jump in shale oil output

Montevideo, 8 November (Argus) — Argentina's state-owned YPF saw output of unconventional crude surge by 36pc to 126,000 b/d in the third quarter of the year compared to a year earlier. YPF's third quarter statement put total production at 559,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) with crude at 256,000 b/d, up by 8pc, and natural gas at 40.3mn m³/d, or 253,000 boe/d, an increase of 7pc, and 49,000 boe/d of natural gas liquids, up by 4pc. Unconventional crude accounted for 49pc of overall output. It was 39pc of total production a year earlier. YPF is the major player in Vaca Muerta, Argentina's unconventional formation that holds an estimated 16bn bl of crude and 308 trillion cf of gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The formation is at the heart of YPF's plans for Argentina to produce 1mn bl of crude and export up to 30mn metric tonnes/yr of LNG by the end of the decade. YPF is now Argentina's largest crude exporter, dispatching an average of 40,000 b/d in the third quarter, nearly all of this going by pipeline to neighboring Chile, according to Federico Barroetavena, chief financial officer. He said the company invested $1.35bn in the third quarter, with more than 70pc on upstream. It drilled 50 wells in the third quarter. YPF is moving ahead with its southern Vaca Muerta oil pipeline as it looks for partners for the full project. It has completed 50pc of the first 130km (81.4mi) segment. The second 440km, as well as storage tanks and a monobuoy platform, will require $2.5bn. The company anticipates construction to start in the first quarter of 2025. The initial capacity will be 180,000 b/d in 2026, increasing to 500,000 b/d in 2027 and, eventually, to 700,000 b/d. YPF is also the largest shareholder, with 37pc, in the Oldelval pipeline from Vaca Muerta to the coast. It is undergoing an expansion to 530,000 b/d in 2025. The state-owned energy company, Enarsa, completed in October the reversal of the country's northern gas pipeline to move Vaca Muerta gas to the north of the country. It will move more than 15mn m³/d of gas to northern Argentina. It previously moved gas from northern gas fields, now depleted, and Bolivia, to the capital, Buenos Aires. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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