Northvolt's future unclear as Sweden rejects stake

Spanish Market: Battery materials, Metals
20/09/24

The future of Swedish battery and cathode active material (CAM) producer Northvolt is unclear after the country's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed this week that the government will not invest in the company. Northvolt has had to cut back its expansion plans because of challenging macroeconomic and market conditions.

Northvolt's difficulties were thrown into the spotlight last week when chief executive and co-founder Peter Carlsson said the company will scale back its expansion plans for a second CAM factory in Borlange, Sweden – a facility that is intended to help ease regional dependence on imports from China which currently accounts for over 70pc of global CAM production, according to the IEA.

The adjustment at Borlange is one of several setbacks at Northvolt, whose Skellefteå factory in the far north of Sweden delivered less than 1GWh of battery production last year – enough to power around 20,000 cars and far below the plant's nameplate capacity of 16GWh. Back in June, German carmaker BMW pulled out of a €2bn ($2.2bn) order, albeit just 4pc of Northvolt's order book of $55bn, according to its 2022 annual report – underscoring the slowdown in European demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and therefore battery materials.

Carlsson maintains that the "long term outlook for cell manufacturers — including Northvolt — is strong", despite the "challenging macroeconomic environment."

And while the Swedish government has declined to invest, Northvolt did receive a €5bn ($5.58bn) loan in January — the largest loan raised by a climate tech firm in Europe to date, along with €942mn from the European Investment Bank (EIB). Overall, the company has received around €15bn ($16bn) of investments to date — in debt and equity — since its founding in 2017 by two former Tesla executives, comfortably making it Europe's best-funded start-up, ahead of fintech firm Klarna at $4.6bn.

However the road ahead is challenging and costly, and additional support will be needed. "Northvolt haven't gone under but are not going to produce any CAM material until 2026 at the earliest, so difficult times, the EU needs to step up and support," a market participant commented.

The scale of growth and support being given to China's battery and electric vehicle (EV) sectors is also compounding the difficulties raising investment for European projects. China accounted for 83pc of global battery production last year, according to the IEA, and subsidy-funded EV manufacturers CATL and BYD have continued to expand capacity this year (see graph). China has subsidised its EV industry to the tune of around $230bn between 2007 and 2023, including $45bn last year, according to a study by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"This scares off the capital from the [European] battery market. It takes a full reassessment of the industry, which takes a long time. Capital is not cheap and rate cuts are only coming in now, so it will be a while," another market participant said.

China's battery dominance continues to hamper Europe

"This narrative is bigger than Northvolt – Asian manufacturers generally and Chinese manufacturers specifically are in the lead, very clearly", said Jeffrey Chamberlain, chief executive of US-based venture fund Volta Energy Technologies.

"The idea that a start-up can catch up and manufacture cells, of equal or better quality at volume, might have been viable 10-15 years ago, but it is increasingly becoming incredibly challenging," Chamberlain said, arguing that western firms at all stages of the supply chain should sign joint ventures with China instead of engaging in direct competition, offering access to their markets with local manufacturing as well as "innovation for next-generation products".

Despite recent setbacks, Northvolt has not revised its goal of building four large factories before the end of the decade in Sweden, Germany and Canada – remaining committed to a scale of ambition that is drawing concern from some industry participants.

"The only way for success now is through strategic alliances, just look at InoBat and Gotion," said Ben Kilbey, former director at Britishvolt. "[It] feels like recent history repeating [itself]. Britishvolt was advised that it could make a battery factory in two global locations (UK and Canada) before it had made a single cell […] Now Northvolt is in a pickle and having to scale back its global, vertical integration, ambitions. And it's had around €15bn thrown at it," Kilbey added.

Chinese companies have outlined lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity for next year that far exceeds expected demand (see graph), which may further weigh on prices for component materials, squeezing the margins of any manufacturers of these materials outside China such as Northvolt.

By Chris Welch

Global EV battery installations, by supplier GWh

Announced lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity and demand in 2025 GWh

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19/03/25

India proposes 12pc safeguard duty on steel imports

Mumbai, 19 March (Argus) — India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a 12pc provisional safeguard duty on flat steel imports to protect the domestic industry. The duty should be imposed for 200 days, according to a notice on 18 March from the DGTR, which is the government's investigative agency. The agency has recommended putting the safeguard measures in place immediately, citing potential damage resulting from any delays. The proposed duty is lower than the 25pc rate sought by Indian steel mills to restrict inflows of cheaper imports that have pressured company profits. The DGTR launched the safeguard investigation in December following an application by the Indian Steel Association. The agency concluded that there has been a "recent, sudden, sharp and significant increase in imports" of the products under investigation, which include hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils and sheets as well as galvanized and color-coated steel. Section 232 restrictions imposed by the US in 2018 and a flurry of protectionist measures by other countries have led to a diversion of trade flows to India, boosting imports, the agency said. For hot-rolled coil (HRC), the proposed safeguard duty will not be applicable if product is imported at or above $675/t on a cif basis, the agency said. Expectations of safeguard duties was one of the reasons for a recent jump in domestic HRC prices, which had fallen to multi-year lows in 2024 because of cheaper imports and lackluster domestic demand. Several Indian steel market participants had said the outlook for Indian steel prices was bearish in the absence of safeguards. Argus assessed weekly Indian domestic 2.5-4.0mm HRC at 50,150 rupees/t ($579/t) ex-Mumbai, excluding goods and services tax, on 14 March, a rise of nearly 5pc compared to the end of February. India became a net steel importer in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year and has remained so in the current fiscal year, which ends in March. Over April 2024-January 2025, finished steel imports rose by 21pc on the year to 8.4mn t, with South Korea being the biggest supplier. South Korea, China and Japan accounted for more than three-quarters of India's total finished steel imports during the last ten months, according to ministry data. China and Vietnam will be the only developing nations that will incur duties, while others will be exempt, according to the DGTR's recommendations. This is because among developing countries, only China and Vietnam individually account for more than 3pc of imports into India, while other developing countries collectively do not have a more than 9pc share of imports, the agency said. A hearing will be scheduled ahead of a final decision on safeguards, the DGTR said. By Amruta Khandekar Proposed safeguard duty threshold Product Import price (cif) Hot-rolled coils, sheets and plates $675/t Hot-rolled plate mill plates $695/t Cold-rolled coils and sheets $824/t Metallic coated coils and sheets $861/t Colour coated coils and sheets $964/t Safeguard duties will not be imposed if the product is imported at or above cif price levels Source: DGTR Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mineral Resources shuts Australian iron ore haul road

19/03/25

Mineral Resources shuts Australian iron ore haul road

Sydney, 19 March (Argus) — Australian metal producer Mineral Resources (MinRes) has closed the Onslow haulage road, a private highway linking its 35mn t/yr Onslow iron mine to the Port of Ashburton in Western Australia, over safety challenges. Two road train trailers tipped over while moving along the road on 17 March, triggering an internal investigation by MinRes. State occupational safety regulator Worksafe WA then issued MinRes a notice about risks to its road train operations on 18 March, prompting the closure. The company declined to comment on the specifics of the notice. MinRes is continuing to move iron ore to Ashburton using contractors and has indicated that the closure will not affect its full-year Onslow shipment guidance of 8.8mn–9.3mn wet metric tonne (wmt) of ore. The recent accident was the latest in a series of Onslow truck rollovers. Four road trains, carrying loads of iron ore, toppled over between August-November 2024. MinRes responded to the incidents by improving signage along the road, re-examining its design, and providing additional training to drivers, the company told investors in January. This is also not the first Onslow road closure. Cyclone Sean damaged parts of the haul road in late January, as it passed along WA's coast. MinRes' CEO Chris Ellison last month told investors that "[the company] lost about eight days of loading in January and another seven days in February". By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

S Korea's automotive output, sales, exports rise in Feb

18/03/25

S Korea's automotive output, sales, exports rise in Feb

Singapore, 18 March (Argus) — South Korea's automotive output, domestic sales and exports rose in February compared with a year earlier, with the country closely monitoring potential US trade measures. The country's auto output rose by 17pc on the year to almost 352,000 units in February, according to South Korea's trade and industry ministry (Motie). Domestic sales rose by 15pc on the year to around 133,000 units, supported by a 30pc reduction on individual consumption tax on passenger cars until the first half of 2025, which has been capped at 1mn Korean won ($690). Exports rose by 17pc on the year to almost 233,000 units, with auto export revenue hitting an all-time high for the month of February at $6.07bn. Motie is planning to collect the automobile industry's opinions on the possibility of US trade measures, and will continue to closely monitor the potential impact and prepare "prompt" response measures, it said on 18 March. Eco-friendly vehicle domestic sales rose sharply by 50pc on the year to about 60,350 units in February, while exports rose by 32pc to almost 69,000 units. Eco-friendly vehicles in South Korea refers to hybrids, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids and hydrogen-fuelled vehicles. Hybrid domestic sales were up by 25pc on the year to about 44,600 units, while BEV domestic sales almost quadrupled to about 14,300 units, which Motie attributed to the EV subsidies it introduced in January. The January support measures included additional 20pc subsidies for young South Koreans' first EV and highway toll fees exemptions for EV owners until 2027. But BEV exports in February dipped by 2pc on the year to about 23,150 units, while hybrid exports continued to rise by almost 62pc to about 39,500 units. By Joseph Ho South Korea's car exports in 2025 units South Korea's domestic car sales in 2025 units Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU prepares CBAM export scheme

17/03/25

EU prepares CBAM export scheme

Brussels, 17 March (Argus) — The European Commission is preparing a "solution" for exported goods under the bloc's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), to be presented before the end of the year. The commission will also expand the scope of the CBAM to "certain" steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products. The changes to the CBAM will be announced as part of a European steel and metals plan. In a draft of the plan to be formally presented on 19 March, the commission points to the need to address the problem of carbon leakage for CBAM goods exported from the EU to non-EU countries. The draft also notes that the commission is currently "quantifying" risks, before proposing an extension of the CBAM to "certain" steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products, so as to address the risk of European producers relocating outside the bloc to avoid higher carbon costs. The metals plan also announces an anti-circumvention strategy for the CBAM to be presented in the second half of 2025. The commission points to the risk of goods from low-carbon production facilities in non-EU countries being redirected to European customers, while carbon-intensive production continues for other markets. The metals plan also points to the risk of "greenwashing" carbon accounting practices, with "electro-intensive metals production benefiting from market-based instruments to appear low-carbon". The commission put forward proposals last month to simplify the CBAM, exempting some 90pc of the firms currently covered by the mechanism. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU steel action plan to introduce melt and pour clause

17/03/25

EU steel action plan to introduce melt and pour clause

London, 17 March (Argus) — The European Commission will introduce a "melted and poured" rule as part of its steel and metals action plan, to underpin the effectiveness of its trade defence measures. The rule will mean the origin of goods is determined by the location at which the metal is originally melted, regardless of where it was further processed. This will prevent minimal transformation to evade dumping and other duties and provide greater clarity over the origin of the product, a draft of the plan suggests. The move will clearly have big ramifications for steel, where material produced in countries with duties, such as China, is further processed — for example, from hot-rolled into hot-dip galvanised — before being sent to the EU without paying duties. The commission said it will "remain vigilant, as overcapacities generated under non-market conditions may also have the effect of driving unrelated market-based producers in other third countries to export quantities to the EU that are displaced from their domestic or other traditional non-European markets". And the rule will have major implications for the EU's imports of cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanised, among other products, with one trading firm saying it would be a "game changer". European steel association Eurofer requested a melt and pour on Chinese steel as part of its request for a functional review of the steel safeguard. The commission also will "proactively" open duty investigations based on a "threat of injury" without waiting for material injury to occur. The carbon border adjustment mechanism will be extended to certain downstream products to prevent a shift to downstream goods that then avoid paying the carbon taxes required on upstream products, such as steel. European service centres and distributors have been requesting this move to protect themselves and their customers, which could face greater import penetration without an extension of the measures. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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